TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13153798
Played Sep 19Finished
Lukas Zeman
Home
3.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
113115911118––
Jan Cernik
Away
1.33
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:23 and never touched — 75.3% is still 75.3%
Graded at full timeJan Cernik to win
75.3%
75.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingLukas Zeman above · Jan Cernik below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 69 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Jan Cernik at 75.3%
69 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Zeman 5–11 Jan Cernik Lukas Zeman has won 5 of their 16 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:23What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Cernik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-11 in 16
Cernik
Wrong
gap of 6 in 16, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zeman 1859 vs Cernik 1958
Cernik
Wrong
both rated, 99 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zeman 80% vs Cernik 20%
Zeman
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zeman 50% vs Cernik 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Zeman +1 · Cernik -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 75% — Strong (leans Cernik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cernik form (20%) is below what odds imply (75%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZeman 3.25 / Cernik 1.33
Signal prob.25% / 75%
Edge (Cernik)+4.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13153798
Zeman3.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog41% won 34 of 84
Down 0–1, comes back21% 9 of 43
Down 0–2, comes back12% 3 of 26
Cernik1.33
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite69% won 79 of 114
Up 2–0, closes it96% 44 of 46
Up 1–0, closes it87% 59 of 68
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeZeman2wins
AwayCernik8wins
3 of 10 to a deciderCernik leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZeman50%2 of 4
AwayCernik100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zeman4Cernik6n = 10Cernik took 6 of 10
S2Zeman2Cernik8n = 10Cernik took 8 of 10
S3Zeman2Cernik8n = 10Cernik took 8 of 10
S4Zeman2Cernik5n = 7Cernik took 5 of 7
S5Zeman2Cernik1n = 3Zeman took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricZemanCernikZ − CBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match36.142.4−6.3per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZemanCernikBasisWin rate · lifetime254 / 506 vs 198 / 33350.2%59.5%254 / 506 vs 198 / 333Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.537.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CernikZeman 3.25/Cernik 1.33
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
75.3%
Cernik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Zeman won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 13 · 15:00L. Zeman154380J. Cernik331111113
LAug 16 · 13:29L. Zeman4411912482J. Cernik529111011113
LAug 16 · 12:00L. Zeman31811481J. Cernik4211911113
WMay 9 · 12:59L. Zeman51138712113J. Cernik521111111092
LMay 9 · 12:00L. Zeman238960J. Cernik331111113
WApr 12 · 21:28L. Zeman501171011113J. Cernik4361112682
LApr 12 · 18:00L. Zeman4011118101J. Cernik4513911123
LMar 27 · 02:30L. Zeman36981271J. Cernik43111110113
LMar 24 · 09:30L. Zeman279990J. Cernik331111113
LNov 17 · 22:30L. Zeman4413119111J. Cernik48111311133
L. Zeman10
WSep 19 · 15:30D. Opanasiuk1.6198100L. Zeman2.201111123LSep 19 · 14:00L. Zeman1.9171151392E. Mares1.801191111113WSep 19 · 13:30L. Prikasky1.573570L. Zeman2.251111113WSep 19 · 12:30J. Jr1.8377100L. Zeman1.831111123WSep 19 · 11:30L. Zeman1.66138713113O. Kolisnyk2.051111111162LSep 19 · 10:30L. Prikasky1.831111113L. Zeman1.837590LSep 13 · 17:00L. Zeman1.83610111152M. Zahradka1.83111264113LSep 13 · 16:30L. Zeman3.00212241T. Kos1.36111011113LSep 13 · 15:00L. Zeman3.004380J. Cernik1.361111113WSep 13 · 14:00M. Zahradka2.10811121192L. Zeman1.67117149113
J. Cernik10
LSep 19 · 15:00E. Mares2.25111191113J. Cernik1.5796111142LSep 19 · 14:30J. Cernik2.101112541D. Opanasiuk1.6781411113WSep 13 · 21:00J. Cernik1.301413123V. Koubek3.401211100LSep 13 · 20:00L. Boruvka1.531111113J. Cernik2.388770LSep 13 · 19:00J. Zajicek1.44671111153J. Cernik2.63111124132WSep 13 · 18:30J. Cernik1.361111113V. Koubek3.007770WSep 13 · 17:29T. Kos2.25211771J. Cernik1.5711911113WSep 13 · 16:00M. Zahradka4.0010121081J. Cernik1.22121012113WSep 13 · 15:00L. Zeman3.004380J. Cernik1.361111113LSep 13 · 14:30J. Cernik1.5351090T. Kos2.381112113
Upcoming Matches
L. Zeman
Nothing scheduled
J. Cernik
Sep 19 · 18:00J. Cernik2.10D. Opanasiuk1.67—Sep 19 · 19:30J. Cernik1.40Z. Bilek2.75—Sep 19 · 20:00J. Cernik1.57E. Mares2.25—Sep 20 · 10:30J. Cernik1.57E. Mares2.25—Sep 20 · 11:00J. Cernik1.60J. Medek2.20—Sep 20 · 12:00J. Cernik2.10D. Opanasiuk1.65—Sep 20 · 14:30J. Cernik2.10D. Opanasiuk1.67—Sep 20 · 15:00J. Cernik1.61J. Medek2.20—Sep 20 · 16:00J. Cernik2.50J. Zajicek1.50—
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