TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13153766
Played Sep 19Finished
Erik Mares
Home
2.25
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
119116911111114
Jan Cernik
Away
1.57
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:14 and never touched — 61.7% is still 61.7%
Graded at full timeJan Cernik to win
61.7%
61.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingErik Mares above · Jan Cernik below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 1-11
Set 5 · 11-4
Point 84 set 5, 11-4 — our read held Jan Cernik at 61.7%
84 points played in total.
H2H Erik Mares 21–23 Jan Cernik Erik Mares has won 21 of their 44 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:14What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Cernik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
21-23 in 44
Cernik
Wrong
gap of 2 in 44, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mares 1896 vs Cernik 1989
Cernik
Wrong
both rated, 93 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mares 40% vs Cernik 60%
Cernik
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mares 70% vs Cernik 70%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Mares +2 · Cernik +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Slight lean (leans Cernik)
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMares 2.25 / Cernik 1.57
Signal prob.38% / 62%
Edge (Cernik)+2.8pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13153766
Mares2.25
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog46% won 96 of 208
Down 0–1, comes back26% 27 of 105
Down 0–2, comes back14% 9 of 63
Cernik1.57
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 6 days ago (Sep 13)
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite69% won 79 of 114
Up 2–0, closes it96% 44 of 46
Up 1–0, closes it87% 59 of 68
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMares3wins
AwayCernik7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderCernik leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMares33.3%2 of 6
AwayCernik75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mares6Cernik4n = 10Mares took 6 of 10
S2Mares7Cernik3n = 10Mares took 7 of 10
S3Mares3Cernik7n = 10Cernik took 7 of 10
S4Mares1Cernik7n = 8Cernik took 7 of 8
S5Mares1Cernik3n = 4Cernik took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMaresCernikM − CBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match38.139.4−1.3per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMaresCernikBasisWin rate · lifetime601 / 1195 vs 198 / 33150.3%59.8%601 / 1195 vs 198 / 331Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match40.137.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CernikMares 2.25/Cernik 1.57
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
61.7%
Cernik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Mares won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 28 · 11:00E. Mares32911481J. Cernik4011711113
LAug 25 · 18:00E. Mares268990J. Cernik331111113
LAug 16 · 08:00E. Mares4612116982J. Cernik471041111113
LJul 24 · 11:30E. Mares331310821J. Cernik45111211113
LJul 24 · 07:30E. Mares371187111J. Cernik4161111133
LJul 19 · 13:04E. Mares4411117962J. Cernik42631111113
WJul 19 · 10:30E. Mares4051111133J. Cernik341157111
LJul 19 · 08:00E. Mares45411119102J. Cernik49118711123
WJul 16 · 01:30E. Mares44111165113J. Cernik4058111152
WJul 15 · 17:00E. Mares341111123J. Cernik2349100
E. Mares10
WSep 19 · 14:00L. Zeman1.9171151392E. Mares1.801191111113WSep 17 · 02:30E. Mares1.7310101113183T. Postelt2.001212811162LSep 17 · 01:30M. Huk2.501113113E. Mares1.5091170LSep 17 · 24:00E. Mares1.501213101192J. Ruzicka2.501015129113LSep 16 · 23:00M. Zahradka3.50251016113E. Mares1.2823121461WSep 16 · 21:28E. Mares2.101111113V. Koubek1.675740WSep 16 · 20:00E. Mares2.0010121111113V. Koubek1.7312149882WSep 16 · 19:30J. Zajicek1.838111081E. Mares1.8311912113WSep 16 · 18:00E. Mares2.38111110113J. Medek1.53651291WSep 15 · 21:30E. Mares1.281121013113M. Zahradka3.20811121162
J. Cernik10
LSep 19 · 14:30J. Cernik2.101112541D. Opanasiuk1.6781411113WSep 13 · 21:00J. Cernik1.301413123V. Koubek3.401211100LSep 13 · 20:00L. Boruvka1.531111113J. Cernik2.388770LSep 13 · 19:00J. Zajicek1.44671111153J. Cernik2.63111124132WSep 13 · 18:30J. Cernik1.361111113V. Koubek3.007770WSep 13 · 17:29T. Kos2.25211771J. Cernik1.5711911113WSep 13 · 16:00M. Zahradka4.0010121081J. Cernik1.22121012113WSep 13 · 15:00L. Zeman3.004380J. Cernik1.361111113LSep 13 · 14:30J. Cernik1.5351090T. Kos2.381112113WAug 29 · 13:30J. Cernik2.33911911113L. Boruvka1.5411511792
Upcoming Matches
E. Mares
J. Cernik
Sep 19 · 18:00J. Cernik2.10D. Opanasiuk1.67—Sep 19 · 19:30J. Cernik1.40Z. Bilek2.75—Sep 19 · 20:00J. Cernik1.57E. Mares2.25—Sep 20 · 10:30J. Cernik1.57E. Mares2.25—Sep 20 · 11:00J. Cernik1.60J. Medek2.20—Sep 20 · 12:00J. Cernik2.10D. Opanasiuk1.65—Sep 20 · 14:30J. Cernik2.10D. Opanasiuk1.67—Sep 20 · 15:00J. Cernik1.61J. Medek2.20—Sep 20 · 16:00J. Cernik2.50J. Zajicek1.50—
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