TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13135621
Played Sep 16Finished
Erik Mares
Home
2.38
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1161151012119––
Josef Medek
Away
1.53
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:57 and never touched — 65.2% is still 65.2%
Graded at full timeJosef Medek to win
65.2%
65.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingErik Mares above · Josef Medek below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 75 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Josef Medek at 65.2%
75 points played in total.
H2H Erik Mares 26–56 Josef Medek Erik Mares has won 26 of their 82 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:57What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Medek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
26-56 in 82
Medek
Wrong
gap of 30 in 82, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mares 1885 vs Medek 2027
Medek
Wrong
both rated, 142 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mares 80% vs Medek 100%
Medek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mares 60% vs Medek 80%
Medek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mares +4 · Medek +5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Medek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Medek form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMares 2.38 / Medek 1.53
Signal prob.35% / 65%
Edge (Medek)+4.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13135621
Mares2.38
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog45% won 93 of 205
Down 0–1, comes back25% 26 of 104
Down 0–2, comes back13% 8 of 62
Medek1.53
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite60% won 112 of 187
Up 2–0, closes it94% 58 of 62
Up 1–0, closes it80% 81 of 101
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMares3wins
AwayMedek7wins
5 of 10 to a deciderMedek leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMares100%3 of 3
AwayMedek100%7 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mares3Medek7n = 10Medek took 7 of 10
S2Mares7Medek3n = 10Mares took 7 of 10
S3Mares4Medek6n = 10Medek took 6 of 10
S4Mares3Medek5n = 8Medek took 5 of 8
S5Mares1Medek4n = 5Medek took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMaresMedekMares − MedekBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match38.142.7−4.6per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMaresMedekBasisWin rate · lifetime608 / 1207 vs 306 / 52650.4%58.2%608 / 1207 vs 306 / 526Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match40.037.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MedekMares 2.38/Medek 1.53
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
65.2%
Medek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Mares won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 5 · 10:00E. Mares179620J. Medek331111113
LSep 4 · 21:30E. Mares40311111052J. Medek52119912113
WSep 4 · 18:00E. Mares501111611113J. Medek4678111372
WSep 2 · 21:29E. Mares3611311113J. Medek29611751
LSep 2 · 19:30E. Mares491011116112J. Medek48128411133
WSep 1 · 16:30E. Mares46111113113J. Medek39781591
LAug 26 · 19:00E. Mares33811591J. Medek4211911113
LAug 25 · 19:30E. Mares50911117122J. Medek50117711143
LAug 2 · 16:30E. Mares2366110J. Medek351111133
LJun 18 · 19:30E. Mares3721441162J. Medek531112118113
E. Mares10
WSep 15 · 21:30E. Mares1.281121013113M. Zahradka3.20811121162WSep 15 · 20:00E. Mares2.001111113V. Koubek1.738880WSep 15 · 19:30Z. Bilek2.10615112272E. Mares1.671117920113WSep 15 · 18:00E. Mares1.2811911123M. Zahradka3.505116101LSep 13 · 21:30E. Mares1.80115431T. Postelt1.9011111113WSep 13 · 20:00E. Mares2.2011124113T. Kos1.618101191WSep 13 · 19:30M. Zahradka3.7512611131E. Mares1.2514119153LSep 13 · 18:00E. Mares1.911111812132T. Postelt1.80641114153LSep 13 · 09:30L. Zeman1.721111122113E. Mares2.0086141142LSep 13 · 08:00M. Huk2.50116811133E. Mares1.50511119112
J. Medek10
WSep 7 · 21:30J. Medek1.851111113J. Zajicek1.853950WSep 7 · 20:00J. Vales2.63641181J. Medek1.4411117113WSep 7 · 19:00V. Koubek2.63981171J. Medek1.4411117113WSep 7 · 18:30J. Medek1.7391111113J. Zajicek2.00116951WSep 7 · 16:59J. Medek1.4491111113J. Vales2.63116871LSep 7 · 16:00J. Medek1.44711911122V. Koubek2.63114113143WSep 7 · 15:30J. Vales2.7511139562J. Medek1.406111111113LSep 7 · 14:00J. Medek1.83111171172J. Zajicek1.83139115113WSep 5 · 17:29J. Medek1.731111113J. Zajicek2.005690WSep 5 · 16:30J. Vales2.507590J. Medek1.501111113
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