TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13126530
Played Sep 13Finished
Erik Mares
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
111511411311––
Tomas Postelt
Away
1.90
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:07 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeErik Mares to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingErik Mares above · Tomas Postelt below
Set 1 · 11-1
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 3-11
Point 57 set 4, 3-11 — our read held Erik Mares at 54.0%
57 points played in total.
H2H Erik Mares 53–63 Tomas Postelt Erik Mares has won 53 of their 116 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Postelt beat Mares 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:07What took a side1 for · 4 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Mares
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
53-63 in 116
Postelt
Correct
gap of 10 in 116, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mares 1831 vs Postelt 1843
Postelt
Correct
both rated, 12 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mares 40% vs Postelt 60%
Postelt
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mares 30% vs Postelt 70%
Postelt
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mares +2 · Postelt +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Mares)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mares form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMares 1.80 / Postelt 1.90
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Mares)+2.6pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13126530
Mares1.80
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite58% won 133 of 230
Up 2–0, closes it87% 88 of 101
Up 1–0, closes it72% 113 of 156
Postelt1.90
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog43% won 59 of 136
Down 0–1, comes back30% 25 of 83
Down 0–2, comes back10% 4 of 41
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMares8wins
AwayPostelt2wins
6 of 10 to a deciderMares leads 8–2, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMares85.7%6 of 7
AwayPostelt33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mares7Postelt3n = 10Mares took 7 of 10
S2Mares9Postelt1n = 10Mares took 9 of 10
S3Mares5Postelt5n = 10split evenly
S4Mares3Postelt5n = 8Postelt took 5 of 8
S5Mares4Postelt2n = 6Mares took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMaresPosteltM − PBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match44.038.1+5.9per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMaresPosteltBasisWin rate · lifetime604 / 1205 vs 340 / 72650.1%46.8%604 / 1205 vs 340 / 726Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.939.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MaresMares 1.80/Postelt 1.90
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Mares · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Postelt won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 13 · 18:00E. Mares51111181293T. Postelt4264111472
WSep 7 · 14:00E. Mares46131111113T. Postelt33157561
LSep 6 · 06:00E. Mares48911117102T. Postelt46113911123
WAug 26 · 06:30E. Mares43111155113T. Postelt3645111152
WAug 20 · 10:00E. Mares3811115113T. Postelt33681181
WAug 19 · 15:00E. Mares371111153T. Postelt2382130
WAug 18 · 14:00E. Mares331111113T. Postelt268990
LAug 17 · 15:30E. Mares4312481182T. Postelt481011115113
WAug 15 · 02:58E. Mares51711139113T. Postelt48117111182
WAug 15 · 02:00E. Mares50111198113T. Postelt4689111172
E. Mares10
WSep 13 · 20:00E. Mares2.2011124113T. Kos1.618101191WSep 13 · 19:30M. Zahradka3.7512611131E. Mares1.2514119153LSep 13 · 18:00E. Mares1.911111812132T. Postelt1.80641114153LSep 13 · 09:30L. Zeman1.721111122113E. Mares2.0086141142LSep 13 · 08:00M. Huk2.50116811133E. Mares1.50511119112WSep 13 · 07:00A. Barton3.007620E. Mares1.361111113LSep 13 · 06:30E. Mares1.80811791L. Zeman1.9111311113LSep 12 · 12:59E. Mares1.91531120102L. Zeman1.801111818123LSep 12 · 12:30L. Jindrak1.571111113E. Mares2.258770LSep 12 · 11:30E. Mares1.67891451L. Zeman2.10111112113
T. Postelt10
WSep 13 · 20:30T. Postelt1.91791711113M. Zahradka1.80111115872LSep 13 · 19:00T. Postelt2.5031111782T. Kos1.50119911113WSep 13 · 18:00E. Mares1.911111812132T. Postelt1.80641114153WSep 8 · 17:30M. Zahradka1.83101181152T. Postelt1.83129114113LSep 8 · 16:30M. Zahradka1.831116113T. Postelt1.8361450WSep 8 · 15:30T. Postelt2.3811414113L. Jindrak1.536111281WSep 8 · 14:30V. Koubek1.61911129112T. Postelt2.201161011133WSep 7 · 16:59M. Zahradka1.83716111182T. Postelt1.83111878113WSep 7 · 16:30T. Postelt1.7381111123J. Kycelt2.001199101LSep 7 · 15:00T. Postelt1.8035100M. Zahradka1.911111123
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