TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13120212
Played Sep 13Finished
Erik Mares
Home
2.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1181210411119––
Tomas Kos
Away
1.62
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:19 and never touched — 59.0% is still 59.0%
Graded at full timeTomas Kos to win
59.0%
59.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingErik Mares above · Tomas Kos below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 76 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Tomas Kos at 59.0%
76 points played in total.
H2H Erik Mares 19–20 Tomas Kos Erik Mares has won 19 of their 39 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 13:19What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Kos
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
19-20 in 39
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mares 1793 vs Kos 2059
Kos
Wrong
both rated, 266 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mares 40% vs Kos 80%
Kos
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mares 30% vs Kos 80%
Kos
Wrong
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mares +1 · Kos +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Kos) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kos form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMares 2.20 / Kos 1.61
Signal prob.39% / 61%
Edge (Kos)+3.2pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13120212
Mares2.20
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog45% won 91 of 201
Down 0–1, comes back25% 26 of 103
Down 0–2, comes back13% 8 of 61
Kos1.61
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite59% won 26 of 44
Up 2–0, closes it94% 17 of 18
Up 1–0, closes it76% 22 of 29
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMares4wins
AwayKos6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKos leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMares60%3 of 5
AwayKos80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mares5Kos5n = 10split evenly
S2Mares5Kos5n = 10split evenly
S3Mares4Kos6n = 10Kos took 6 of 10
S4Mares2Kos4n = 6Kos took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMaresKosM − KBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match35.437.9−2.5per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMaresKosBasisWin rate · lifetime603 / 1205 vs 95 / 18950%50.3%603 / 1205 vs 95 / 189Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match40.036.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KosMares 2.20/Kos 1.61
Miss
What we said
60.9%
Kos · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Mares won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 12 · 10:30E. Mares381314113T. Kos31111280
LSep 12 · 09:30E. Mares311164101T. Kos4281111123
LSep 12 · 07:30E. Mares31571181T. Kos3411111113
WAug 30 · 11:30E. Mares3711114113T. Kos36891181
LAug 30 · 06:30E. Mares25411551T. Kos4011711113
LAug 28 · 12:30E. Mares2714580T. Kos381611113
LAug 20 · 15:00E. Mares50111110992T. Kos51891211113
LAug 20 · 13:28E. Mares2891270T. Kos361114113
WAug 20 · 12:00E. Mares331111113T. Kos197570
WAug 15 · 17:29E. Mares549111111123T. Kos52111389112
E. Mares10
WSep 13 · 19:30M. Zahradka3.7512611131E. Mares1.2514119153LSep 13 · 18:00E. Mares1.911111812132T. Postelt1.80641114153LSep 13 · 09:30L. Zeman1.721111122113E. Mares2.0086141142LSep 13 · 08:00M. Huk2.50116811133E. Mares1.50511119112WSep 13 · 07:00A. Barton3.007620E. Mares1.361111113LSep 13 · 06:30E. Mares1.80811791L. Zeman1.9111311113LSep 12 · 12:59E. Mares1.91531120102L. Zeman1.801111818123LSep 12 · 12:30L. Jindrak1.571111113E. Mares2.258770LSep 12 · 11:30E. Mares1.67891451L. Zeman2.10111112113WSep 12 · 10:30T. Kos1.61111280E. Mares2.201314113
T. Kos10
WSep 13 · 19:00T. Postelt2.5031111782T. Kos1.50119911113WSep 13 · 18:30T. Kos1.281113811113M. Zahradka3.5081511752LSep 13 · 17:29T. Kos2.25211771J. Cernik1.5711911113WSep 13 · 16:30L. Zeman3.00212241T. Kos1.36111011113WSep 13 · 15:30T. Kos1.30111112113M. Zahradka3.40561471WSep 13 · 14:30J. Cernik1.5351090T. Kos2.381112113WSep 12 · 13:30L. Jindrak2.252740T. Kos1.571111113WSep 12 · 12:00L. Zeman2.7581190T. Kos1.401113113WSep 12 · 11:00L. Jindrak2.1068130T. Kos1.671111153LSep 12 · 10:30T. Kos1.61111280E. Mares2.201314113
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