TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13120225
Played Sep 13Finished
Michal Zahradka
Home
3.75
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
12146111191315––
Erik Mares
Away
1.25
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:24 and never touched — 75.4% is still 75.4%
Graded at full timeErik Mares to win
75.4%
75.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Zahradka above · Erik Mares below
Set 1 · 12-14
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 13-15
Point 91 set 4, 13-15 — our read held Erik Mares at 75.4%
91 points played in total.
H2H Michal Zahradka 16–28 Erik Mares Michal Zahradka has won 16 of their 44 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:24What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.25 (75%)
Mares
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
16-28 in 44
Mares
Correct
gap of 12 in 44, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zahradka 1837 vs Mares 1763
Zahradka
Wrong
both rated, 74 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zahradka 20% vs Mares 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zahradka 40% vs Mares 20%
Zahradka
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Zahradka -1 · Mares -3
Mares
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 75% — Strong (leans Mares)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mares form (20%) is below what odds imply (80%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZahradka 3.75 / Mares 1.25
Signal prob.25% / 75%
Edge (Mares)+0.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13120225
Zahradka3.75
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog40% won 69 of 171
Down 0–1, comes back19% 16 of 83
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 48
Mares1.25
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite58% won 133 of 230
Up 2–0, closes it87% 88 of 101
Up 1–0, closes it72% 113 of 156
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeZahradka2wins
AwayMares8wins
Mares leads 8–2.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZahradka66.7%2 of 3
AwayMares100%7 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zahradka3Mares7n = 10Mares took 7 of 10
S2Zahradka2Mares8n = 10Mares took 8 of 10
S3Zahradka2Mares8n = 10Mares took 8 of 10
S4Zahradka2Mares3n = 5Mares took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away550%
These 10 meetings
MetricZahradkaMaresZ − MBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match26.436.5−10.1per matchSweeps05−53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZahradkaMaresBasisWin rate · lifetime439 / 904 vs 602 / 120448.6%50%439 / 904 vs 602 / 1204Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.640.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MaresZahradka 3.75/Mares 1.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
75.4%
Mares · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Mares won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 7 · 18:30M. Zahradka28841151E. Mares4211119113
LSep 7 · 16:00M. Zahradka183870E. Mares331111113
WSep 3 · 12:00M. Zahradka47111411113E. Mares42916891
LAug 20 · 11:30M. Zahradka111460E. Mares331111113
LAug 12 · 13:00M. Zahradka25011771E. Mares3811511113
LAug 12 · 10:30M. Zahradka209830E. Mares331111113
WAug 12 · 07:30M. Zahradka3911116113E. Mares37981191
LMay 21 · 10:00M. Zahradka258980E. Mares331111113
LMay 18 · 09:00M. Zahradka26113481E. Mares4071111113
LMay 18 · 07:30M. Zahradka2510960E. Mares341211113
M. Zahradka10
LSep 13 · 18:30T. Kos1.281113811113M. Zahradka3.5081511752WSep 13 · 17:00L. Zeman1.83610111152M. Zahradka1.83111264113LSep 13 · 16:00M. Zahradka4.0010121081J. Cernik1.22121012113LSep 13 · 15:30T. Kos1.30111112113M. Zahradka3.40561471LSep 13 · 14:00M. Zahradka2.10811121192L. Zeman1.67117149113LSep 8 · 17:30M. Zahradka1.83101181152T. Postelt1.83129114113WSep 8 · 16:30M. Zahradka1.831116113T. Postelt1.8361450WSep 8 · 15:00M. Zahradka2.751111113V. Koubek1.405680WSep 8 · 14:00L. Jindrak1.571310671M. Zahradka2.25111211113LSep 7 · 21:30J. Kycelt1.831111123M. Zahradka1.8383100
E. Mares10
WSep 13 · 20:00E. Mares2.2011124113T. Kos1.618101191LSep 13 · 18:00E. Mares1.911111812132T. Postelt1.80641114153LSep 13 · 09:30L. Zeman1.721111122113E. Mares2.0086141142LSep 13 · 08:00M. Huk2.50116811133E. Mares1.50511119112WSep 13 · 07:00A. Barton3.007620E. Mares1.361111113LSep 13 · 06:30E. Mares1.80811791L. Zeman1.9111311113LSep 12 · 12:59E. Mares1.91531120102L. Zeman1.801111818123LSep 12 · 12:30L. Jindrak1.571111113E. Mares2.258770LSep 12 · 11:30E. Mares1.67891451L. Zeman2.10111112113WSep 12 · 10:30T. Kos1.61111280E. Mares2.201314113
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