TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13094904
Played Sep 7Finished
Josef Medek
Home
1.85
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
113119115––––
Jan Zajicek
Away
1.85
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:56 and never touched — 57.4% is still 57.4%
Graded at full timeJosef Medek to win
57.4%
57.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJosef Medek above · Jan Zajicek below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-5
Point 50 set 3, 11-5 — our read held Josef Medek at 57.4%
50 points played in total.
H2H Josef Medek 136–93 Jan Zajicek Jan Zajicek has won 93 of their 229 meetings.
They have already met 2 times today · last one 3h before this match
Medek beat Zajicek 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:56What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.85 (50%)
Zajicek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
136-93 in 229
Medek
Correct
gap of 43 in 229, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Medek 2027 vs Zajicek 1861
Medek
Correct
both rated, 166 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Medek 80% vs Zajicek 60%
Medek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Medek 80% vs Zajicek 50%
Medek
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Medek +4 · Zajicek +2
Medek
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Medek) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Medek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (54%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMedek 1.85 / Zajicek 1.85
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Medek)+4.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13094904
Medek1.85
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Zajicek1.85
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMedek8wins
AwayZajicek2wins
2 of 10 to a deciderMedek leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMedek100%4 of 4
AwayZajicek33.3%2 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Medek4Zajicek6n = 10Zajicek took 6 of 10
S2Medek8Zajicek2n = 10Medek took 8 of 10
S3Medek9Zajicek1n = 10Medek took 9 of 10
S4Medek5Zajicek1n = 6Medek took 5 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMedekZajicekM − ZBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match39.231.9+7.3per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMedekZajicekBasisWin rate · lifetime306 / 526 vs 347 / 65658.2%52.9%306 / 526 vs 347 / 656Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.936.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MedekMedek 1.85/Zajicek 1.85
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Medek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Medek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 7 · 21:30J. Medek—1111113J. Zajicek—3950
WSep 7 · 18:30J. Medek—91111113J. Zajicek—116951
LSep 7 · 14:00J. Medek—111171172J. Zajicek—139115113
WSep 5 · 17:29J. Medek—1111113J. Zajicek—5690
LSep 5 · 14:30J. Medek—9811121J. Zajicek—11116143
WSep 5 · 12:30J. Medek—1111113J. Zajicek—9970
WSep 4 · 20:30J. Medek—61111113J. Zajicek—117671
WSep 2 · 18:00J. Medek—51112113J. Zajicek—1191091
WAug 26 · 21:00J. Medek—981211133J. Zajicek—1111104112
WAug 26 · 18:30J. Medek—1111113J. Zajicek—5850
J. Medek10
WSep 7 · 20:00J. Vales2.63641181J. Medek1.4411117113WSep 7 · 19:00V. Koubek2.63981171J. Medek1.4411117113WSep 7 · 18:30J. Medek1.7391111113J. Zajicek2.00116951WSep 7 · 16:59J. Medek1.4491111113J. Vales2.63116871LSep 7 · 16:00J. Medek1.44711911122V. Koubek2.63114113143WSep 7 · 15:30J. Vales2.7511139562J. Medek1.406111111113LSep 7 · 14:00J. Medek1.83111171172J. Zajicek1.83139115113WSep 5 · 17:29J. Medek1.731111113J. Zajicek2.005690WSep 5 · 16:30J. Vales2.507590J. Medek1.501111113WSep 5 · 15:30J. Medek1.331111113L. Jindrak3.257750
J. Zajicek10
WSep 7 · 20:30V. Koubek2.637390J. Zajicek1.441111113WSep 7 · 19:30J. Zajicek1.401111113J. Vales2.756890LSep 7 · 18:30J. Medek1.7391111113J. Zajicek2.00116951LSep 7 · 17:29V. Koubek3.001112113J. Zajicek1.3691080WSep 7 · 16:30J. Zajicek1.4011119133J. Vales2.753911111LSep 7 · 15:00J. Zajicek1.4411127882V. Koubek2.639101111113WSep 7 · 14:00J. Medek1.83111171172J. Zajicek1.83139115113LSep 5 · 17:29J. Medek1.731111113J. Zajicek2.005690LSep 5 · 16:00L. Jindrak2.6391111113J. Zajicek1.44114941WSep 5 · 15:00J. Vales2.6310370J. Zajicek1.441211113
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