TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13135662
Played Sep 16Finished
Erik Mares
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 6Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 6
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
10121214119118118
Vojtech Koubek
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:06 and never touched — 54.9% is still 54.9%
Graded at full timeVojtech Koubek to win
54.9%
54.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingErik Mares above · Vojtech Koubek below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 12-14
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 106 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Vojtech Koubek at 54.9%
106 points played in total.
H2H Erik Mares 27–51 Vojtech Koubek Erik Mares has won 27 of their 78 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 15:06What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Koubek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
27-51 in 78
Koubek
Wrong
gap of 24 in 78, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mares 1912 vs Koubek 1839
Mares
Correct
both rated, 74 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mares 100% vs Koubek 60%
Mares
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mares 80% vs Koubek 40%
Mares
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mares +5 · Koubek +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Koubek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mares form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMares 2.00 / Koubek 1.73
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Koubek)+1.2pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13135662
Mares2.00
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 6
oldest → newest100%takes the first set · 10 of 10
As underdog45% won 93 of 205
Down 0–1, comes back25% 26 of 104
Down 0–2, comes back13% 8 of 62
Koubek1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite51% won 34 of 67
Up 2–0, closes it100% 17 of 17
Up 1–0, closes it80% 24 of 30
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMares4wins
AwayKoubek6wins
1 of 10 to a deciderKoubek leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMares80%4 of 5
AwayKoubek100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mares5Koubek5n = 10split evenly
S2Mares4Koubek6n = 10Koubek took 6 of 10
S3Mares7Koubek3n = 10Mares took 7 of 10
S4Mares0Koubek6n = 6Koubek took 6 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMaresKoubekM − KBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match36.035.0+1.0per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMaresKoubekBasisWin rate · lifetime610 / 1209 vs 193 / 38250.5%50.5%610 / 1209 vs 193 / 382Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match40.036.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KoubekMares 2.00/Koubek 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.9%
Koubek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Mares won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 15 · 20:00E. Mares331111113V. Koubek248880
LSep 1 · 17:30E. Mares371188101V. Koubek4061111123
LSep 1 · 15:00E. Mares341051181V. Koubek4312119113
LAug 31 · 17:30E. Mares324117101V. Koubek4311911123
WAug 31 · 14:00E. Mares331111113V. Koubek176740
LAug 27 · 17:28E. Mares387111191V. Koubek4411139113
LAug 27 · 16:00E. Mares4081111101V. Koubek4211136123
LAug 20 · 14:30E. Mares3191390V. Koubek371115113
WAug 18 · 17:30E. Mares49117119113V. Koubek3871161132
WAug 18 · 15:30E. Mares331111113V. Koubek228680
E. Mares10
WSep 16 · 19:30J. Zajicek1.838111081E. Mares1.8311912113WSep 16 · 18:00E. Mares2.38111110113J. Medek1.53651291WSep 15 · 21:30E. Mares1.281121013113M. Zahradka3.20811121162WSep 15 · 20:00E. Mares2.001111113V. Koubek1.738880WSep 15 · 19:30Z. Bilek2.10615112272E. Mares1.671117920113WSep 15 · 18:00E. Mares1.2811911123M. Zahradka3.505116101LSep 13 · 21:30E. Mares1.80115431T. Postelt1.9011111113WSep 13 · 20:00E. Mares2.2011124113T. Kos1.618101191WSep 13 · 19:30M. Zahradka3.7512611131E. Mares1.2514119153LSep 13 · 18:00E. Mares1.911111812132T. Postelt1.80641114153
V. Koubek10
WSep 16 · 19:00J. Medek1.44411771V. Koubek2.6311911113WSep 16 · 18:30V. Koubek2.50115711113J. Zajicek1.5071111462WSep 15 · 21:00V. Koubek1.911311113Z. Bilek1.8011990LSep 15 · 20:00E. Mares2.001111113V. Koubek1.738880LSep 15 · 19:00M. Zahradka2.501111113V. Koubek1.507560WSep 15 · 18:30V. Koubek1.801111113Z. Bilek1.919590LSep 13 · 21:00J. Cernik1.301413123V. Koubek3.401211100LSep 13 · 20:30J. Zajicek1.5011911113V. Koubek2.50411391LSep 13 · 19:30V. Koubek3.759650L. Boruvka1.251111113LSep 13 · 18:30J. Cernik1.361111113V. Koubek3.007770
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