TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13135818
Played Sep 16Finished
Michal Zahradka
Home
3.50
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
252310121614116––
Erik Mares
Away
1.29
At publish
Won last 8Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 8
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:57 and never touched — 73.5% is still 73.5%
Graded at full timeErik Mares to win
73.5%
73.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMichal Zahradka above · Erik Mares below
Set 1 · 25-23
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 16-14
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 117 set 4, 11-6 — our read held Erik Mares at 73.5%
117 points played in total.
H2H Michal Zahradka 16–31 Erik Mares Michal Zahradka has won 16 of their 47 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:57What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.28 (73%)
Mares
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
16-31 in 47
Mares
Wrong
gap of 15 in 47, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zahradka 1832 vs Mares 1948
Mares
Wrong
both rated, 116 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zahradka 80% vs Mares 100%
Mares
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zahradka 60% vs Mares 90%
Mares
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Zahradka +4 · Mares +5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 75% — Strong (leans Mares) · live re-read · sealed at 74% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mares form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (78%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZahradka 3.50 / Mares 1.28
Signal prob.25% / 75%
Edge (Mares)+2.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13135818
Zahradka3.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog39% won 70 of 179
Down 0–1, comes back18% 16 of 89
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 49
Mares1.28
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 8
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite58% won 138 of 238
Up 2–0, closes it88% 91 of 104
Up 1–0, closes it73% 118 of 162
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeZahradka2wins
AwayMares8wins
1 of 10 to a deciderMares leads 8–2, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZahradkan = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayMares100%8 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zahradka2Mares8n = 10Mares took 8 of 10
S2Zahradka4Mares6n = 10Mares took 6 of 10
S3Zahradka4Mares6n = 10Mares took 6 of 10
S4Zahradka2Mares5n = 7Mares took 5 of 7
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricZahradkaMaresZ − MBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match31.039.7−8.7per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZahradkaMaresBasisWin rate · lifetime433 / 901 vs 612 / 121148.1%50.5%433 / 901 vs 612 / 1211Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.540.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MaresZahradka 3.50/Mares 1.28
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
75.1%
Mares · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Zahradka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 15 · 21:30M. Zahradka48811121162E. Mares471121013113
LSep 15 · 18:00M. Zahradka325116101E. Mares4311911123
LSep 13 · 19:30M. Zahradka4212611131E. Mares4914119153
LSep 7 · 18:30M. Zahradka28841151E. Mares4211119113
LSep 7 · 16:00M. Zahradka183870E. Mares331111113
WSep 3 · 12:00M. Zahradka47111411113E. Mares42916891
LAug 20 · 11:30M. Zahradka111460E. Mares331111113
LAug 12 · 13:00M. Zahradka25011771E. Mares3811511113
LAug 12 · 10:30M. Zahradka209830E. Mares331111113
WAug 12 · 07:30M. Zahradka3911116113E. Mares37981191
M. Zahradka10
WSep 16 · 22:00T. Postelt1.9111511762M. Zahradka1.80811711113WSep 16 · 21:28J. Ruzicka2.383870M. Zahradka1.531111113WSep 16 · 20:00P. Bradach2.10981181M. Zahradka1.6711119113WSep 16 · 19:00M. Huk2.1081050M. Zahradka1.671112113LSep 16 · 18:30M. Zahradka1.6113511862J. Ruzicka2.201111811113LSep 15 · 21:30E. Mares1.281121013113M. Zahradka3.20811121162WSep 15 · 20:30M. Zahradka2.2011114113Z. Bilek1.61681141WSep 15 · 19:00M. Zahradka2.501111113V. Koubek1.507560LSep 15 · 18:00E. Mares1.2811911123M. Zahradka3.505116101LSep 13 · 20:59T. Kos1.308111011113M. Zahradka3.4011712882
E. Mares10
WSep 16 · 21:28E. Mares2.101111113V. Koubek1.675740WSep 16 · 20:00E. Mares2.0010121111113V. Koubek1.7312149882WSep 16 · 19:30J. Zajicek1.838111081E. Mares1.8311912113WSep 16 · 18:00E. Mares2.38111110113J. Medek1.53651291WSep 15 · 21:30E. Mares1.281121013113M. Zahradka3.20811121162WSep 15 · 20:00E. Mares2.001111113V. Koubek1.738880WSep 15 · 19:30Z. Bilek2.10615112272E. Mares1.671117920113WSep 15 · 18:00E. Mares1.2811911123M. Zahradka3.505116101LSep 13 · 21:30E. Mares1.80115431T. Postelt1.9011111113WSep 13 · 20:00E. Mares2.2011124113T. Kos1.618101191
Upcoming Matches
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.