TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13135266
Played Sep 16Finished
Michal Zahradka
Home
1.62
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1311511118811611
Jiri Ruzicka
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:27 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJiri Ruzicka to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Zahradka above · Jiri Ruzicka below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 95 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Jiri Ruzicka at 54.0%
95 points played in total.
H2H Michal Zahradka 40–29 Jiri Ruzicka Jiri Ruzicka has won 29 of their 69 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:27What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Zahradka
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
40-29 in 69
Zahradka
Wrong
gap of 11 in 69, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zahradka 1790 vs Ruzicka 1763
Zahradka
Wrong
both rated, 26 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zahradka 40% vs Ruzicka 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zahradka 30% vs Ruzicka 60%
Ruzicka
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Zahradka -1 · Ruzicka +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Zahradka) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zahradka form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZahradka 1.61 / Ruzicka 2.20
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Zahradka)+0.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13135266
Zahradka1.61
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite53% won 79 of 148
Up 2–0, closes it83% 35 of 42
Up 1–0, closes it75% 55 of 73
Ruzicka2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog39% won 134 of 343
Down 0–1, comes back20% 42 of 213
Down 0–2, comes back5% 6 of 113
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeZahradka8wins
AwayRuzicka2wins
1 of 10 to a deciderZahradka leads 8–2, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZahradka85.7%6 of 7
AwayRuzicka33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zahradka7Ruzicka3n = 10Zahradka took 7 of 10
S2Zahradka7Ruzicka3n = 10Zahradka took 7 of 10
S3Zahradka6Ruzicka4n = 10Zahradka took 6 of 10
S4Zahradka5Ruzicka2n = 7Zahradka took 5 of 7
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricZahradkaRuzickaZ − RBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match37.831.6+6.2per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZahradkaRuzickaBasisWin rate · lifetime432 / 900 vs 681 / 140948%48.3%432 / 900 vs 681 / 1409Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.538.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZahradkaZahradka 1.61/Ruzicka 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.1%
Zahradka · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Ruzicka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 3 · 10:30M. Zahradka4291111113J. Ruzicka26116361
WSep 3 · 07:30M. Zahradka331111113J. Ruzicka175480
WAug 27 · 18:30M. Zahradka4111611133J. Ruzicka409119111
LAug 24 · 16:58M. Zahradka30312781J. Ruzicka43111011113
WAug 24 · 14:30M. Zahradka3911116113J. Ruzicka32871161
WAug 6 · 03:00M. Zahradka531191111113J. Ruzicka3751113262
LAug 6 · 01:30M. Zahradka331328101J. Ruzicka45111111123
WAug 5 · 11:30M. Zahradka331111113J. Ruzicka187650
WAug 3 · 10:00M. Zahradka331111113J. Ruzicka239860
WAug 1 · 22:30M. Zahradka4181111113J. Ruzicka35118791
M. Zahradka10
WSep 16 · 20:00P. Bradach2.10981181M. Zahradka1.6711119113WSep 16 · 19:00M. Huk2.1081050M. Zahradka1.671112113LSep 15 · 21:30E. Mares1.281121013113M. Zahradka3.20811121162WSep 15 · 20:30M. Zahradka2.2011114113Z. Bilek1.61681141WSep 15 · 19:00M. Zahradka2.501111113V. Koubek1.507560LSep 15 · 18:00E. Mares1.2811911123M. Zahradka3.505116101LSep 13 · 20:59T. Kos1.308111011113M. Zahradka3.4011712882LSep 13 · 20:30T. Postelt1.91791711113M. Zahradka1.80111115872LSep 13 · 19:30M. Zahradka3.7512611131E. Mares1.2514119153LSep 13 · 18:30T. Kos1.281113811113M. Zahradka3.5081511752
J. Ruzicka10
WSep 16 · 19:30J. Ruzicka1.8041111113P. Bradach1.91116571WSep 15 · 12:59J. Ruzicka1.4481111113R. Urbaniec2.63116751WSep 15 · 12:30J. Ruzicka1.5011117113R. Urbaniec2.50461161LSep 15 · 11:00J. Ruzicka1.611191191O. Kolisnyk2.2051113113LSep 15 · 10:00V. Svechota1.7312911113J. Ruzicka2.001011871LSep 15 · 09:28J. Ruzicka2.207131114102V. Svechota1.611115812123WSep 15 · 08:30R. Urbaniec2.25510110J. Ruzicka1.571112133LSep 15 · 07:30J. Ruzicka1.67101011121O. Kolisnyk2.1012127143WSep 15 · 06:30V. Svechota1.73611781J. Ruzicka2.0011911113WSep 14 · 03:30J. Louda2.5571070J. Ruzicka1.431112113
Upcoming Matches
M. Zahradka
J. Ruzicka
Sep 16 · 20:30J. Ruzicka1.80M. Huk1.91—Sep 16 · 22:30J. Ruzicka1.80M. Huk1.91—Sep 17 · 24:00J. Ruzicka2.50E. Mares1.50—Sep 17 · 01:00J. Ruzicka2.10T. Postelt1.67—Sep 17 · 02:00J. Ruzicka2.20M. Zahradka1.61—Sep 17 · 22:30J. Ruzicka1.67J. Simecek2.10—Sep 17 · 23:30J. Ruzicka1.61O. Kolisnyk2.20—Sep 18 · 24:30J. Ruzicka1.91M. Wagner1.80—Sep 18 · 01:30J. Ruzicka2.38A. Barton1.53—
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