TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13153063
Played Sep 19Finished
Erik Mares
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
11911812141210––
Zdenek Bilek
Away
2.10
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:22 and never touched — 64.7% is still 64.7%
Graded at full timeErik Mares to win
64.7%
64.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingErik Mares above · Zdenek Bilek below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 12-14
Set 4 · 12-10
Point 87 set 4, 12-10 — our read held Erik Mares at 64.7%
87 points played in total.
H2H Erik Mares 51–35 Zdenek Bilek Zdenek Bilek has won 35 of their 86 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:22What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Mares
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
51-35 in 86
Mares
Correct
gap of 16 in 86, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mares 1946 vs Bilek 1767
Mares
Correct
both rated, 180 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mares 80% vs Bilek 0%
Mares
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mares 60% vs Bilek 30%
Mares
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mares +1 · Bilek -5
Bilek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Mares) · live re-read · sealed at 65% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Bilek form (0%) is below what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMares 1.67 / Bilek 2.10
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Mares)+0.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13153063
Mares1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite57% won 139 of 242
Up 2–0, closes it88% 91 of 104
Up 1–0, closes it72% 118 of 163
Bilek2.10
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 4 days ago (Sep 15)
Lost last 5
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog43% won 32 of 74
Down 0–1, comes back24% 10 of 42
Down 0–2, comes back11% 3 of 27
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMares5wins
AwayBilek5wins
7 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 7 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMares60%3 of 5
AwayBilek60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mares5Bilek5n = 10split evenly
S2Mares7Bilek3n = 10Mares took 7 of 10
S3Mares5Bilek5n = 10split evenly
S4Mares4Bilek4n = 8split evenly
S5Mares3Bilek4n = 7Bilek took 4 of 7
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMaresBilekM − BBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match44.944.4+0.5per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMaresBilekBasisWin rate · lifetime603 / 1198 vs 176 / 34250.3%51.5%603 / 1198 vs 176 / 342Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match40.138.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MaresMares 1.67/Bilek 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.2%
Mares · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Mares won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 15 · 19:30E. Mares681117920113Z. Bilek61615112272
WAug 30 · 13:29E. Mares43311711113Z. Bilek4311911482
LAug 30 · 10:00E. Mares29961131Z. Bilek3711114113
WAug 14 · 22:00E. Mares341211113Z. Bilek2110380
LAug 8 · 13:00E. Mares50551812102Z. Bilek6011111610123
WAug 8 · 10:00E. Mares331111113Z. Bilek239950
LJun 30 · 21:00E. Mares46111281052Z. Bilek506101112113
LJun 30 · 19:30E. Mares511111109102Z. Bilek48671211123
LJun 27 · 02:30E. Mares4691341372Z. Bilek5511111111113
WJun 17 · 20:30E. Mares495111111113Z. Bilek4611135892
E. Mares10
LSep 19 · 19:00D. Opanasiuk1.441413113E. Mares2.63121170WSep 19 · 17:30L. Zeman1.83118151192E. Mares1.831311138113LSep 19 · 16:30E. Mares2.63109111162D. Opanasiuk1.44121139113WSep 19 · 15:00E. Mares2.25111191113J. Cernik1.5796111142WSep 19 · 14:00L. Zeman1.9171151392E. Mares1.801191111113WSep 17 · 02:30E. Mares1.7310101113183T. Postelt2.001212811162LSep 17 · 01:30M. Huk2.501113113E. Mares1.5091170LSep 17 · 24:00E. Mares1.501213101192J. Ruzicka2.501015129113LSep 16 · 23:00M. Zahradka3.50251016113E. Mares1.2823121461WSep 16 · 21:28E. Mares2.101111113V. Koubek1.675740
Z. Bilek10
LSep 15 · 21:00V. Koubek1.911311113Z. Bilek1.8011990LSep 15 · 20:30M. Zahradka2.2011114113Z. Bilek1.61681141LSep 15 · 19:30Z. Bilek2.10615112272E. Mares1.671117920113LSep 15 · 18:30V. Koubek1.801111113Z. Bilek1.919590LAug 30 · 13:29Z. Bilek2.1011911482E. Mares1.65311711113WAug 30 · 12:30Z. Bilek1.91911811113T. Kos1.8011611442WAug 30 · 11:00Z. Bilek1.83791111143M. Kratochvil1.83111146122WAug 30 · 10:00E. Mares1.73961131Z. Bilek2.0011114113LAug 15 · 02:30L. Zeman2.3813511113Z. Bilek1.531111941LAug 15 · 01:00T. Postelt2.631111710113Z. Bilek1.4486111292
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