TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 20Finished
Erik Mares
Home
2.75
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 4
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
116117119––––
Dmytro Opanasiuk
Away
1.40
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:08 and never touched — 63.4% is still 63.4%
Graded at full timeDmytro Opanasiuk to win
63.4%
63.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingErik Mares above · Dmytro Opanasiuk below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 55 set 3, 11-9 — our read held Dmytro Opanasiuk at 63.4%
55 points played in total.
H2H Erik Mares 7–20 Dmytro Opanasiuk Erik Mares has won 7 of their 27 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:08What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Opanasiuk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-20 in 27
Opanasiuk
Wrong
gap of 13 in 27, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mares 1853 vs Opanasiuk 1939
Opanasiuk
Wrong
both rated, 86 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mares 20% vs Opanasiuk 60%
Opanasiuk
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mares 50% vs Opanasiuk 70%
Opanasiuk
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mares -4 · Opanasiuk -1
Mares
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% — Clear lean (leans Opanasiuk) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Opanasiuk form (60%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMares 2.75 / Opanasiuk 1.40
Signal prob.31% / 69%
Edge (Opanasiuk)+2.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13159397
Mares2.75
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog46% won 97 of 212
Down 0–1, comes back25% 27 of 108
Down 0–2, comes back14% 9 of 66
Opanasiuk1.40
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite53% won 88 of 167
Up 2–0, closes it92% 46 of 50
Up 1–0, closes it71% 59 of 83
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMares1wins
AwayOpanasiuk9wins
4 of 10 to a deciderOpanasiuk leads 9–1, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMares0%0 of 3
AwayOpanasiuk85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mares3Opanasiuk7n = 10Opanasiuk took 7 of 10
S2Mares0Opanasiuk10n = 10Opanasiuk took 10 of 10
S3Mares4Opanasiuk6n = 10Opanasiuk took 6 of 10
S4Mares3Opanasiuk3n = 6split evenly
S5Mares1Opanasiuk3n = 4Opanasiuk took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricMaresOpanasiukM − OBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match35.842.3−6.5per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMaresOpanasiukBasisWin rate · lifetime602 / 1198 vs 153 / 28450.3%53.9%602 / 1198 vs 153 / 284Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match40.239.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OpanasiukMares 2.75/Opanasiuk 1.40
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
68.7%
Opanasiuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Mares won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 19 · 19:00E. Mares30121170D. Opanasiuk381413113
LSep 19 · 16:30E. Mares47109111162D. Opanasiuk46121139113
LJul 19 · 12:00E. Mares29411140D. Opanasiuk401113163
LJul 18 · 14:00E. Mares371188101D. Opanasiuk4061111123
LJul 18 · 10:30E. Mares29910100D. Opanasiuk351112123
LJul 17 · 21:29E. Mares47115118122D. Opanasiuk52711911143
LJul 17 · 20:00E. Mares381179111D. Opanasiuk4271111133
LJul 16 · 03:30E. Mares1917110D. Opanasiuk351111133
WJul 16 · 24:30E. Mares43641111113D. Opanasiuk4311117952
LJul 15 · 14:00E. Mares39102111152D. Opanasiuk52121199113
E. Mares10
LSep 20 · 10:30J. Cernik1.611311113E. Mares2.2011980LSep 19 · 21:00Z. Bilek2.302411169113E. Mares1.55268141182LSep 19 · 20:00J. Cernik1.61121166113E. Mares2.20108111182LSep 19 · 19:00D. Opanasiuk1.441413113E. Mares2.63121170WSep 19 · 18:30E. Mares1.67111112123Z. Bilek2.109814101WSep 19 · 17:30L. Zeman1.83118151192E. Mares1.831311138113LSep 19 · 16:30E. Mares2.63109111162D. Opanasiuk1.44121139113WSep 19 · 15:00E. Mares2.25111191113J. Cernik1.5796111142WSep 19 · 14:00L. Zeman1.9171151392E. Mares1.801191111113WSep 17 · 02:30E. Mares1.7310101113183T. Postelt2.001212811162
D. Opanasiuk10
WSep 20 · 12:00D. Opanasiuk1.501071112113J. Cernik2.50121131052LSep 20 · 10:00D. Opanasiuk2.1079110J. Medek1.671111133WSep 19 · 21:30D. Opanasiuk1.451118113J. Cernik2.5571690LSep 19 · 20:30D. Opanasiuk1.73115116102Z. Bilek2.00411511123WSep 19 · 19:00D. Opanasiuk1.441413113E. Mares2.63121170WSep 19 · 18:00J. Cernik2.25881181D. Opanasiuk1.5711119113WSep 19 · 17:01D. Opanasiuk1.371111113J. Cernik2.907760WSep 19 · 16:30E. Mares2.63109111162D. Opanasiuk1.44121139113LSep 19 · 15:30D. Opanasiuk1.6198100L. Zeman2.201111123WSep 19 · 14:30J. Cernik2.101112541D. Opanasiuk1.6781411113
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