TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13154181
Played Sep 19Finished
Jan Cernik
Home
1.62
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 5
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1210118611611118
Erik Mares
Away
2.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:44 and never touched — 61.7% is still 61.7%
Graded at full timeJan Cernik to win
61.7%
61.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Cernik above · Erik Mares below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 94 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Jan Cernik at 61.7%
94 points played in total.
H2H Jan Cernik 23–22 Erik Mares Erik Mares has won 22 of their 45 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 5h before this match
Mares beat Cernik 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:44What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Cernik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
23-22 in 45
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cernik 1880 vs Mares 1939
Mares
Wrong
both rated, 58 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cernik 0% vs Mares 60%
Mares
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cernik 30% vs Mares 50%
Mares
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Cernik -5 · Mares -1
Cernik
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Cernik) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mares form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCernik 1.61 / Mares 2.20
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Cernik)+0.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13154181
Cernik1.61
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 5
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite69% won 79 of 114
Up 2–0, closes it96% 44 of 46
Up 1–0, closes it87% 59 of 68
Mares2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog46% won 96 of 208
Down 0–1, comes back26% 27 of 105
Down 0–2, comes back14% 9 of 63
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCernik7wins
AwayMares3wins
5 of 10 to a deciderCernik leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCernik75%3 of 4
AwayMares33.3%2 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cernik4Mares6n = 10Mares took 6 of 10
S2Cernik3Mares7n = 10Mares took 7 of 10
S3Cernik8Mares2n = 10Cernik took 8 of 10
S4Cernik8Mares1n = 9Cernik took 8 of 9
S5Cernik3Mares2n = 5Cernik took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricCernikMaresC − MBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match41.239.0+2.2per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCernikMaresBasisWin rate · lifetime198 / 336 vs 604 / 120058.9%50.3%198 / 336 vs 604 / 1200Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.440.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CernikCernik 1.61/Mares 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.7%
Cernik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Cernik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 19 · 15:00J. Cernik4196111142E. Mares43111191113
WAug 28 · 11:00J. Cernik4011711113E. Mares32911481
WAug 25 · 18:00J. Cernik331111113E. Mares268990
WAug 16 · 08:00J. Cernik471041111113E. Mares4612116982
WJul 24 · 11:30J. Cernik45111211113E. Mares331310821
WJul 24 · 07:30J. Cernik4161111133E. Mares371187111
WJul 19 · 13:04J. Cernik42631111113E. Mares4411117962
LJul 19 · 10:30J. Cernik341157111E. Mares4051111133
WJul 19 · 08:00J. Cernik49118711123E. Mares45411119102
LJul 16 · 01:30J. Cernik4058111152E. Mares44111165113
J. Cernik10
WSep 19 · 19:30Z. Bilek2.7511196812J. Cernik1.407171111113LSep 19 · 18:00J. Cernik2.25881181D. Opanasiuk1.5711119113LSep 19 · 17:01D. Opanasiuk1.251111113J. Cernik3.757760LSep 19 · 16:00L. Zeman3.2511119113J. Cernik1.33351181LSep 19 · 15:00E. Mares2.25111191113J. Cernik1.5796111142LSep 19 · 14:30J. Cernik2.101112541D. Opanasiuk1.6781411113WSep 13 · 21:00J. Cernik1.301413123V. Koubek3.401211100LSep 13 · 20:00L. Boruvka1.531111113J. Cernik2.388770LSep 13 · 19:00J. Zajicek1.44671111153J. Cernik2.63111124132WSep 13 · 18:30J. Cernik1.361111113V. Koubek3.007770
E. Mares10
LSep 19 · 19:00D. Opanasiuk1.441413113E. Mares2.63121170WSep 19 · 18:30E. Mares1.67111112123Z. Bilek2.109814101WSep 19 · 17:30L. Zeman1.83118151192E. Mares1.831311138113LSep 19 · 16:30E. Mares2.63109111162D. Opanasiuk1.44121139113WSep 19 · 15:00E. Mares2.25111191113J. Cernik1.5796111142WSep 19 · 14:00L. Zeman1.9171151392E. Mares1.801191111113WSep 17 · 02:30E. Mares1.7310101113183T. Postelt2.001212811162LSep 17 · 01:30M. Huk2.501113113E. Mares1.5091170LSep 17 · 24:00E. Mares1.501213101192J. Ruzicka2.501015129113LSep 16 · 23:00M. Zahradka3.50251016113E. Mares1.2823121461
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