TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 20Finished
Jan Cernik
Home
1.62
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1311119118––––
Erik Mares
Away
2.20
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:09 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJan Cernik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Cernik above · Erik Mares below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 63 set 3, 11-8 — our read held Jan Cernik at 54.0%
63 points played in total.
H2H Jan Cernik 24–22 Erik Mares Erik Mares has won 22 of their 46 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:09What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Cernik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
24-22 in 46
Cernik
Correct
gap of 2 in 46, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cernik 1932 vs Mares 1865
Cernik
Correct
both rated, 67 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cernik 40% vs Mares 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cernik 30% vs Mares 50%
Mares
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Cernik -1 · Mares -3
Mares
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Cernik) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cernik form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCernik 1.61 / Mares 2.20
Signal prob.59% / 42%
Edge (Cernik)+0.8pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13159420
Cernik1.61
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite69% won 81 of 118
Up 2–0, closes it96% 45 of 47
Up 1–0, closes it87% 60 of 69
Mares2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog46% won 97 of 212
Down 0–1, comes back25% 27 of 108
Down 0–2, comes back14% 9 of 66
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCernik8wins
AwayMares2wins
5 of 10 to a deciderCernik leads 8–2, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCernik80%4 of 5
AwayMares20%1 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cernik5Mares5n = 10split evenly
S2Cernik4Mares6n = 10Mares took 6 of 10
S3Cernik7Mares3n = 10Cernik took 7 of 10
S4Cernik7Mares2n = 9Cernik took 7 of 9
S5Cernik4Mares1n = 5Cernik took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricCernikMaresC − MBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match41.839.4+2.4per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCernikMaresBasisWin rate · lifetime200 / 339 vs 604 / 120259%50.3%200 / 339 vs 604 / 1202Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.440.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CernikCernik 1.61/Mares 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.5%
Cernik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Cernik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 19 · 20:00J. Cernik46121166113E. Mares48108111182
LSep 19 · 15:00J. Cernik4196111142E. Mares43111191113
WAug 28 · 11:00J. Cernik4011711113E. Mares32911481
WAug 25 · 18:00J. Cernik331111113E. Mares268990
WAug 16 · 08:00J. Cernik471041111113E. Mares4612116982
WJul 24 · 11:30J. Cernik45111211113E. Mares331310821
WJul 24 · 07:30J. Cernik4161111133E. Mares371187111
WJul 19 · 13:04J. Cernik42631111113E. Mares4411117962
LJul 19 · 10:30J. Cernik341157111E. Mares4051111133
WJul 19 · 08:00J. Cernik49118711123E. Mares45411119102
J. Cernik10
WSep 20 · 11:00J. Medek2.10117881J. Cernik1.6771111113LSep 19 · 21:30D. Opanasiuk1.451118113J. Cernik2.5571690WSep 19 · 20:00J. Cernik1.61121166113E. Mares2.20108111182WSep 19 · 19:30Z. Bilek2.7511196812J. Cernik1.407171111113LSep 19 · 18:00J. Cernik2.25881181D. Opanasiuk1.5711119113LSep 19 · 17:01D. Opanasiuk1.371111113J. Cernik2.907760LSep 19 · 16:00L. Zeman3.2511119113J. Cernik1.33351181LSep 19 · 15:00E. Mares2.25111191113J. Cernik1.5796111142LSep 19 · 14:30J. Cernik2.101112541D. Opanasiuk1.6781411113WSep 13 · 21:00J. Cernik1.301413123V. Koubek3.401211100
E. Mares10
WSep 20 · 11:30E. Mares2.751111113D. Opanasiuk1.406790LSep 19 · 21:00Z. Bilek2.302411169113E. Mares1.55268141182LSep 19 · 20:00J. Cernik1.61121166113E. Mares2.20108111182LSep 19 · 19:00D. Opanasiuk1.441413113E. Mares2.63121170WSep 19 · 18:30E. Mares1.67111112123Z. Bilek2.109814101WSep 19 · 17:30L. Zeman1.83118151192E. Mares1.831311138113LSep 19 · 16:30E. Mares2.63109111162D. Opanasiuk1.44121139113WSep 19 · 15:00E. Mares2.25111191113J. Cernik1.5796111142WSep 19 · 14:00L. Zeman1.9171151392E. Mares1.801191111113WSep 17 · 02:30E. Mares1.7310101113183T. Postelt2.001212811162
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