TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 20Finished
Dmytro Opanasiuk
Home
1.50
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
10127111131210115
Jan Cernik
Away
2.50
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:07 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDmytro Opanasiuk to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDmytro Opanasiuk above · Jan Cernik below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-3
Set 4 · 12-10
Set 5 · 11-5
Point 92 set 5, 11-5 — our read held Dmytro Opanasiuk at 54.0%
92 points played in total.
H2H Dmytro Opanasiuk 8–0 Jan Cernik Jan Cernik has won 0 of their 8 meetings.
The pickContradict
Sealed 13:07What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Opanasiuk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-0 in 8
Opanasiuk
Correct
gap of 8 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Opanasiuk 1896 vs Cernik 1969
Cernik
Wrong
both rated, 74 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Opanasiuk 40% vs Cernik 80%
Cernik
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Opanasiuk 60% vs Cernik 40%
Opanasiuk
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Opanasiuk -2 · Cernik +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and the gate let it through as Contradict.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Opanasiuk) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cernik form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOpanasiuk 1.50 / Cernik 2.50
Signal prob.64% / 36%
Edge (Opanasiuk)+1.6pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13159396
Opanasiuk1.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite53% won 88 of 167
Up 2–0, closes it92% 46 of 50
Up 1–0, closes it71% 59 of 83
Cernik2.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog37% won 20 of 54
Down 0–1, comes back26% 9 of 35
Down 0–2, comes back6% 1 of 18
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeOpanasiuk8wins
AwayCernik0wins
2 of 8 to a deciderOpanasiuk leads 8–0, and 2 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOpanasiuk100%6 of 6
AwayCernikn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Opanasiuk6Cernik2n = 8Opanasiuk took 6 of 8
S2Opanasiuk5Cernik3n = 8Opanasiuk took 5 of 8
S3Opanasiuk7Cernik1n = 8Opanasiuk took 7 of 8
S4Opanasiuk4Cernik1n = 5Opanasiuk took 4 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home338%
3–1Four sets, home338%
3–2Decider, home225%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 8 meetings
MetricOpanasiukCernikO − CBasisWins80+8in 8 meetingsFirst set62+4of 8Avg pointsper match40.931.8+9.1per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOpanasiukCernikBasisWin rate · lifetime153 / 285 vs 202 / 34153.7%59.2%153 / 285 vs 202 / 341Avg sets wonper match2.22.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.537.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CernikOpanasiuk 1.50/Cernik 2.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
64.1%
Opanasiuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Opanasiuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WSep 19 · 21:30D. Opanasiuk401118113J. Cernik3271690
WSep 19 · 18:00D. Opanasiuk4211119113J. Cernik35881181
WSep 19 · 17:01D. Opanasiuk331111113J. Cernik207760
WSep 19 · 14:30D. Opanasiuk4481411113J. Cernik321112541
WJul 19 · 11:30D. Opanasiuk50891111113J. Cernik3711113662
WJul 15 · 23:00D. Opanasiuk4411811143J. Cernik344117121
WJul 15 · 16:00D. Opanasiuk331111113J. Cernik189360
WJul 10 · 14:30D. Opanasiuk41112116113J. Cernik4661191192
D. Opanasiuk10
WSep 20 · 12:58J. Medek1.5733111252D. Opanasiuk2.251111610113LSep 20 · 11:30E. Mares2.751111113D. Opanasiuk1.406790LSep 20 · 10:00D. Opanasiuk2.1079110J. Medek1.671111133WSep 19 · 21:30D. Opanasiuk1.451118113J. Cernik2.5571690LSep 19 · 20:30D. Opanasiuk1.73115116102Z. Bilek2.00411511123WSep 19 · 19:00D. Opanasiuk1.441413113E. Mares2.63121170WSep 19 · 18:00J. Cernik2.25881181D. Opanasiuk1.5711119113WSep 19 · 17:01D. Opanasiuk1.371111113J. Cernik2.907760WSep 19 · 16:30E. Mares2.63109111162D. Opanasiuk1.44121139113LSep 19 · 15:30D. Opanasiuk1.6198100L. Zeman2.201111123
J. Cernik10
WSep 20 · 11:00J. Medek2.10117881J. Cernik1.6771111113WSep 20 · 10:30J. Cernik1.611311113E. Mares2.2011980LSep 19 · 21:30D. Opanasiuk1.451118113J. Cernik2.5571690WSep 19 · 20:00J. Cernik1.61121166113E. Mares2.20108111182WSep 19 · 19:30Z. Bilek2.7511196812J. Cernik1.407171111113LSep 19 · 18:00J. Cernik2.25881181D. Opanasiuk1.5711119113LSep 19 · 17:01D. Opanasiuk1.371111113J. Cernik2.907760LSep 19 · 16:00L. Zeman3.2511119113J. Cernik1.33351181LSep 19 · 15:00E. Mares2.25111191113J. Cernik1.5796111142LSep 19 · 14:30J. Cernik2.101112541D. Opanasiuk1.6781411113
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