TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 20Finished
Josef Medek
Home
1.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
6111012115119711
Erik Mares
Away
2.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:07 and never touched — 64.7% is still 64.7%
Graded at full timeJosef Medek to win
64.7%
64.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJosef Medek above · Erik Mares below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 5-7
Point 87 set 5, 5-7 — our read held Josef Medek at 64.7%
87 points drawn · the score is 6 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Josef Medek 56–28 Erik Mares Erik Mares has won 28 of their 84 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:07What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Medek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
56-28 in 84
Medek
Wrong
gap of 28 in 84, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Medek 1950 vs Mares 1911
Medek
Wrong
both rated, 40 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Medek 40% vs Mares 20%
Medek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Medek 60% vs Mares 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Medek -1 · Mares +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Medek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mares form (20%) is below what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMedek 1.50 / Mares 2.50
Signal prob.65% / 35%
Edge (Medek)+2.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13159402
Medek1.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite59% won 110 of 187
Up 2–0, closes it93% 56 of 60
Up 1–0, closes it80% 79 of 99
Mares2.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog46% won 97 of 212
Down 0–1, comes back25% 27 of 108
Down 0–2, comes back14% 9 of 66
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMedek5wins
AwayMares5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMedek100%5 of 5
AwayMares100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Medek5Mares5n = 10split evenly
S2Medek2Mares8n = 10Mares took 8 of 10
S3Medek6Mares4n = 10Medek took 6 of 10
S4Medek6Mares3n = 9Medek took 6 of 9
S5Medek3Mares2n = 5Medek took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMedekMaresMedek − MaresBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match41.641.2+0.4per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMedekMaresBasisWin rate · lifetime300 / 515 vs 604 / 119958.3%50.4%300 / 515 vs 604 / 1199Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.940.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MedekMedek 1.50/Mares 2.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
64.9%
Medek · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Mares won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 20 · 12:30J. Medek45610111172E. Mares48111259113
LSep 16 · 18:00J. Medek32651291E. Mares43111110113
WSep 5 · 10:00J. Medek331111113E. Mares179620
WSep 4 · 21:30J. Medek52119912113E. Mares40311111052
LSep 4 · 18:00J. Medek4678111372E. Mares501111611113
LSep 2 · 21:29J. Medek29611751E. Mares3611311113
WSep 2 · 19:30J. Medek48128411133E. Mares491011116112
LSep 1 · 16:30J. Medek39781591E. Mares46111113113
WAug 26 · 19:00J. Medek4211911113E. Mares33811591
WAug 25 · 19:30J. Medek50117711143E. Mares50911117122
J. Medek10
LSep 20 · 12:58J. Medek1.5733111252D. Opanasiuk2.251111610113LSep 20 · 11:00J. Medek2.10117881J. Cernik1.6771111113WSep 20 · 10:00D. Opanasiuk2.1079110J. Medek1.671111133LSep 16 · 20:58J. Medek1.8071113432J. Zajicek1.911161111113WSep 16 · 20:30J. Medek1.8091111113J. Zajicek1.91118791LSep 16 · 19:00J. Medek1.44411771V. Koubek2.6311911113LSep 16 · 18:00E. Mares2.38111110113J. Medek1.53651291WSep 7 · 21:30J. Medek1.851111113J. Zajicek1.853950WSep 7 · 20:00J. Vales2.63641181J. Medek1.4411117113WSep 7 · 19:00V. Koubek2.63981171J. Medek1.4411117113
E. Mares10
WSep 20 · 13:30J. Cernik1.55111411862E. Mares2.30816911113WSep 20 · 11:30E. Mares2.751111113D. Opanasiuk1.406790LSep 20 · 10:30J. Cernik1.611311113E. Mares2.2011980LSep 19 · 21:00Z. Bilek2.302411169113E. Mares1.55268141182LSep 19 · 20:00J. Cernik1.61121166113E. Mares2.20108111182LSep 19 · 19:00D. Opanasiuk1.441413113E. Mares2.63121170WSep 19 · 18:30E. Mares1.67111112123Z. Bilek2.109814101WSep 19 · 17:30L. Zeman1.83118151192E. Mares1.831311138113LSep 19 · 16:30E. Mares2.63109111162D. Opanasiuk1.44121139113WSep 16 · 18:00E. Mares2.38111110113J. Medek1.53651291
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