TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 20Finished
Tomas Molin
Home
1.30
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
117811115118––
Jakub Volny
Away
3.40
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:02 and never touched — 59.7% is still 59.7%
Graded at full timeTomas Molin to win
59.7%
59.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingTomas Molin above · Jakub Volny below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 72 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Tomas Molin at 59.7%
72 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Molin 11–4 Jakub Volny Jakub Volny has won 4 of their 15 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Molin beat Volny 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:02What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (72%)
Molin
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-4 in 15
Molin
Correct
gap of 7 in 15, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Molin 1539 vs Volny 1480
Molin
Correct
both rated, 59 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Molin 60% vs Volny 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Molin 60% vs Volny 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Molin -1 · Volny +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 74% — Strong (leans Molin) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Volny form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (29%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMolin 1.30 / Volny 3.40
Signal prob.74% / 26%
Edge (Molin)+1.6pp
TT Cup · #13164309
Molin1.30
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite60% won 49 of 82
Up 2–0, closes it95% 19 of 20
Up 1–0, closes it68% 32 of 47
Volny3.40
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog43% won 41 of 95
Down 0–1, comes back25% 13 of 52
Down 0–2, comes back19% 5 of 26
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMolin8wins
AwayVolny2wins
6 of 10 to a deciderMolin leads 8–2, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMolin80%4 of 5
AwayVolny20%1 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Molin5Volny5n = 10split evenly
S2Molin8Volny2n = 10Molin took 8 of 10
S3Molin8Volny2n = 10Molin took 8 of 10
S4Molin3Volny5n = 8Volny took 5 of 8
S5Molin4Volny2n = 6Molin took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMolinVolnyM − VBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match43.538.4+5.1per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMolinVolnyBasisWin rate · lifetime157 / 301 vs 173 / 35852.2%48.3%157 / 301 vs 173 / 358Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.339.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MolinMolin 1.30/Volny 3.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
73.9%
Molin · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Molin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 20 · 10:10T. Molin331111113J. Volny218760
WAug 19 · 21:10T. Molin371511113J. Volny2113350
WAug 19 · 19:15T. Molin43111110113J. Volny34771281
WAug 15 · 20:10T. Molin50612128123J. Volny5211101011102
WJul 8 · 17:45T. Molin47511119113J. Volny4411771182
WJul 6 · 21:15T. Molin531012119113J. Volny48121071182
LJul 6 · 19:10T. Molin4411911852J. Volny44411711113
WMar 14 · 09:10T. Molin45116116113J. Volny4261181162
LFeb 28 · 10:40T. Molin4041161182J. Volny44113118113
WFeb 10 · 10:20T. Molin4391112113J. Volny341171061
T. Molin10
LSep 20 · 11:40V. Konvicka1.8313118113T. Molin1.831131181WSep 20 · 11:10T. Lysek1.917570T. Molin1.801111113WSep 20 · 10:10T. Molin1.731111113J. Volny2.008760WSep 20 · 08:44A. Cizek1.5710770T. Molin2.251211113LSep 20 · 08:10T. Molin1.80911881J. Przybyla1.9111511113WSep 20 · 06:40P. Marsalek1.801112111372T. Molin1.91614615113LSep 20 · 06:10A. Cizek1.61781111113T. Molin2.2011118672LSep 18 · 21:08T. Molin1.441181291D. Branny2.6371114113WSep 18 · 19:45D. Branny2.256670T. Molin1.571111113WSep 18 · 19:15V. Reska2.00118351T. Molin1.7371111113
J. Volny10
WSep 20 · 12:10J. Volny1.6711121112123T. Lysek2.10614914102WSep 20 · 10:40V. Konvicka1.807780J. Volny1.911111113LSep 20 · 10:10T. Molin1.731111113J. Volny2.008760WSep 12 · 12:38V. Reska1.61111179112J. Volny2.20971111133LSep 12 · 12:15J. Volny1.676960V. Reska2.101111113LSep 12 · 10:45L. Dzida1.611111113J. Volny2.205870LSep 12 · 10:15T. Lysek1.9116912113J. Volny1.8014111091WSep 11 · 16:40J. Volny1.671111713113O. Skvor2.1085111572WSep 11 · 15:40K. Baros1.7311178482J. Volny2.005151111113WSep 11 · 15:10O. Skvor2.00512101182J. Volny1.731110126113
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