TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 20Finished
Ales Cizek
Home
1.62
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
711811118116117
Tomas Molin
Away
2.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:48 and never touched — 61.0% is still 61.0%
Graded at full timeAles Cizek to win
61.0%
61.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAles Cizek above · Tomas Molin below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 91 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Ales Cizek at 61.0%
91 points played in total.
H2H Ales Cizek 7–2 Tomas Molin Tomas Molin has won 2 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:48What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Cizek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-2 in 9
Cizek
Correct
gap of 5 in 9, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cizek 1492 vs Molin 1505
Molin
Wrong
both rated, 13 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cizek 80% vs Molin 60%
Cizek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cizek 60% vs Molin 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Cizek +2 · Molin -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Cizek) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Molin form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCizek 1.61 / Molin 2.20
Signal prob.60% / 40%
Edge (Cizek)+2.4pp
TT Cup · #13161291
Cizek1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Sep 18)
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite57% won 47 of 83
Up 2–0, closes it96% 24 of 25
Up 1–0, closes it84% 36 of 43
Molin2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 1 day ago (Sep 18)
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog33% won 18 of 54
Down 0–1, comes back21% 7 of 34
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 17
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeCizek7wins
AwayMolin2wins
5 of 9 to a deciderCizek leads 7–2, and 5 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCizek100%5 of 5
AwayMolin50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cizek5Molin4n = 9Cizek took 5 of 9
S2Cizek5Molin4n = 9Cizek took 5 of 9
S3Cizek7Molin2n = 9Cizek took 7 of 9
S4Cizek5Molin2n = 7Cizek took 5 of 7
S5Cizek3Molin2n = 5Cizek took 3 of 5
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home222%
3–1Four sets, home222%
3–2Decider, home333%
2–3Decider, away222%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 9 meetings
MetricCizekMolinC − MBasisWins72+5in 9 meetingsFirst set54+1of 9Avg pointsper match43.137.3+5.8per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCizekMolinBasisWin rate · lifetime230 / 484 vs 154 / 29647.5%52%230 / 484 vs 154 / 296Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.739.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CizekCizek 1.61/Molin 2.20
Hit
What we said
60.1%
Cizek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Cizek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WSep 20 · 06:10A. Cizek48781111113T. Molin4311118672
WSep 18 · 17:25A. Cizek511111711113T. Molin4141311762
LSep 18 · 14:45A. Cizek4361111782T. Molin48118711113
WSep 17 · 16:45A. Cizek341112113T. Molin2251070
WSep 17 · 14:40A. Cizek341211113T. Molin2510780
WSep 7 · 18:10A. Cizek4412119123T. Molin3810711101
WFeb 4 · 18:40A. Cizek4111811113T. Molin28811541
LJan 9 · 22:25A. Cizek4489111152T. Molin48111196113
WJan 9 · 19:40A. Cizek49811118113T. Molin4311681172
A. Cizek10
LSep 20 · 07:40P. Marsalek1.73116511113A. Cizek2.0071111692LSep 20 · 07:10J. Przybyla2.10123611113A. Cizek1.67101111892WSep 18 · 17:25T. Molin4.0041311762A. Cizek1.221111711113WSep 18 · 15:45A. Cizek2.751411113M. Moravec1.4012730LSep 18 · 14:45A. Cizek1.4461111782T. Molin2.63118711113WSep 18 · 13:45A. Cizek1.801112113K. Baros1.9141030WSep 17 · 16:45A. Cizek1.501112113T. Molin2.5051070LSep 17 · 15:40A. Cizek2.505118111M. Moravec1.5011811133WSep 17 · 14:40A. Cizek1.801211113T. Molin1.9110780LSep 17 · 13:40A. Cizek1.675811121K. Baros2.1011116143
T. Molin10
WSep 20 · 06:40P. Marsalek1.801112111372T. Molin1.91614615113LSep 18 · 21:08T. Molin1.441181291D. Branny2.6371114113WSep 18 · 19:45D. Branny2.256670T. Molin1.571111113WSep 18 · 19:15V. Reska2.00118351T. Molin1.7371111113WSep 18 · 18:15T. Molin1.8391111113J. Przybyla1.83116971LSep 18 · 17:25T. Molin4.0041311762A. Cizek1.221111711113WSep 18 · 16:15T. Molin2.101111911113K. Baros1.6771311652WSep 18 · 14:45A. Cizek1.4461111782T. Molin2.63118711113LSep 17 · 16:45A. Cizek1.501112113T. Molin2.5051070LSep 17 · 14:40A. Cizek1.801211113T. Molin1.9110780
Upcoming Matches
A. Cizek
Nothing scheduled
T. Molin
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