TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 20Finished
Patrik Marsalek
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
117611511116119
Ales Cizek
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:43 and never touched — 56.1% is still 56.1%
Graded at full timePatrik Marsalek to win
56.1%
56.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPatrik Marsalek above · Ales Cizek below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 88 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Patrik Marsalek at 56.1%
88 points played in total.
H2H Patrik Marsalek 7–3 Ales Cizek Ales Cizek has won 3 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:43What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Marsalek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-3 in 10
Marsalek
Correct
gap of 4 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Marsalek 1552 vs Cizek 1492
Marsalek
Correct
both rated, 60 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Marsalek 80% vs Cizek 60%
Marsalek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Marsalek 60% vs Cizek 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Marsalek -1 · Cizek -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Marsalek) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Marsalek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMarsalek 1.73 / Cizek 2.00
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Marsalek)+1.2pp
TT Cup · #13161284
Marsalek1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite50% won 7 of 14
Up 1–0, closes it67% 4 of 6
Cizek2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog43% won 72 of 169
Down 0–1, comes back18% 16 of 88
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 45
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMarsalek7wins
AwayCizek3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderMarsalek leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMarsalek100%5 of 5
AwayCizek60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Marsalek5Cizek5n = 10split evenly
S2Marsalek4Cizek6n = 10Cizek took 6 of 10
S3Marsalek6Cizek4n = 10Marsalek took 6 of 10
S4Marsalek5Cizek1n = 6Marsalek took 5 of 6
S5Marsalek3Cizek1n = 4Marsalek took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMarsalekCizekM − CBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match37.933.8+4.1per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMarsalekCizekBasisWin rate · lifetime56 / 117 vs 230 / 48447.9%47.5%56 / 117 vs 230 / 484Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.138.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MarsalekMarsalek 1.73/Cizek 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.9%
Marsalek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Marsalek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 20 · 07:40P. Marsalek44116511113A. Cizek4471111692
LAug 6 · 17:45P. Marsalek4186111152A. Cizek50111189113
WAug 3 · 18:40P. Marsalek4291111113A. Cizek21116221
WAug 2 · 13:45P. Marsalek48861111123A. Cizek43111165102
WApr 16 · 19:15P. Marsalek4111116133A. Cizek346611111
WApr 2 · 20:40P. Marsalek501112115113A. Cizek3531441132
LApr 2 · 20:10P. Marsalek2451090A. Cizek341112113
WJan 20 · 19:10P. Marsalek371211143A. Cizek27105120
WJan 8 · 13:10P. Marsalek331111113A. Cizek176650
LJan 2 · 15:45P. Marsalek197660A. Cizek331111113
P. Marsalek10
LSep 20 · 06:40P. Marsalek1.801112111372T. Molin1.91614615113WSep 20 · 05:40P. Marsalek1.6111611153J. Przybyla2.209119131WSep 12 · 21:08P. Marsalek1.8371111113D. Vitasek1.83115611WSep 12 · 20:10I. Heuman1.61511751P. Marsalek2.2011611113WSep 12 · 19:10P. Marsalek1.91111114113D. Vitasek1.801391291WSep 12 · 17:40J. Palat1.83311971P. Marsalek1.8311711113LSep 10 · 20:48P. Marsalek1.8010760I. Heuman1.911211113LSep 10 · 20:15A. Kanak1.73118711113P. Marsalek2.0081111792WSep 10 · 19:15P. Marsalek2.2011711113I. Heuman1.61611891LSep 10 · 17:45J. Travnicek1.6712114143P. Marsalek2.1010511121
A. Cizek10
LSep 20 · 07:10J. Przybyla2.10123611113A. Cizek1.67101111892WSep 20 · 06:10A. Cizek1.61781111113T. Molin2.2011118672WSep 18 · 17:25T. Molin4.0041311762A. Cizek1.221111711113WSep 18 · 15:45A. Cizek2.751411113M. Moravec1.4012730LSep 18 · 14:45A. Cizek1.4461111782T. Molin2.63118711113WSep 18 · 13:45A. Cizek1.801112113K. Baros1.9141030WSep 17 · 16:45A. Cizek1.501112113T. Molin2.5051070LSep 17 · 15:40A. Cizek2.505118111M. Moravec1.5011811133WSep 17 · 14:40A. Cizek1.801211113T. Molin1.9110780LSep 17 · 13:40A. Cizek1.675811121K. Baros2.1011116143
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