TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 21Finished
Erik Mares
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
11313151147111315
Vojtech Koubek
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:33 and never touched — 57.9% is still 57.9%
Graded at full timeVojtech Koubek to win
57.9%
57.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingErik Mares above · Vojtech Koubek below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 13-15
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 13-15
Point 103 set 5, 13-15 — our read held Vojtech Koubek at 57.9%
103 points played in total.
H2H Erik Mares 29–51 Vojtech Koubek Erik Mares has won 29 of their 80 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:33What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Koubek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
29-51 in 80
Koubek
Correct
gap of 22 in 80, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mares 1897 vs Koubek 1831
Mares
Wrong
both rated, 67 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mares 60% vs Koubek 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mares 50% vs Koubek 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Mares +3 · Koubek -2
Mares
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Koubek) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mares form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMares 2.10 / Koubek 1.67
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Koubek)+0.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13163905
Mares2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 1 day ago (Sep 20)
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog46% won 100 of 216
Down 0–1, comes back26% 28 of 110
Down 0–2, comes back13% 9 of 67
Koubek1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 5 days ago (Sep 16)
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite49% won 33 of 67
Up 2–0, closes it94% 17 of 18
Up 1–0, closes it77% 24 of 31
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMares4wins
AwayKoubek6wins
1 of 10 to a deciderKoubek leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMares75%3 of 4
AwayKoubek83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mares4Koubek6n = 10Koubek took 6 of 10
S2Mares4Koubek6n = 10Koubek took 6 of 10
S3Mares7Koubek3n = 10Mares took 7 of 10
S4Mares1Koubek5n = 6Koubek took 5 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMaresKoubekM − KBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match36.635.7+0.9per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMaresKoubekBasisWin rate · lifetime605 / 1199 vs 193 / 38450.5%50.3%605 / 1199 vs 193 / 384Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match40.236.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KoubekMares 2.10/Koubek 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.2%
Koubek · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Koubek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 16 · 21:28E. Mares331111113V. Koubek165740
WSep 16 · 20:00E. Mares5510121111113V. Koubek5112149882
WSep 15 · 20:00E. Mares331111113V. Koubek248880
LSep 1 · 17:30E. Mares371188101V. Koubek4061111123
LSep 1 · 15:00E. Mares341051181V. Koubek4312119113
LAug 31 · 17:30E. Mares324117101V. Koubek4311911123
WAug 31 · 14:00E. Mares331111113V. Koubek176740
LAug 27 · 17:28E. Mares387111191V. Koubek4411139113
LAug 27 · 16:00E. Mares4081111101V. Koubek4211136123
LAug 20 · 14:30E. Mares3191390V. Koubek371115113
E. Mares10
LSep 21 · 15:00T. Postelt1.83116115123E. Mares1.83811511102WSep 20 · 13:30J. Cernik1.55111411862E. Mares2.30816911113WSep 20 · 12:30J. Medek1.50610111172E. Mares2.50111259113WSep 20 · 11:30E. Mares2.751111113D. Opanasiuk1.406790LSep 20 · 10:30J. Cernik1.611311113E. Mares2.2011980LSep 19 · 21:00Z. Bilek2.302411169113E. Mares1.55268141182LSep 19 · 20:00J. Cernik1.61121166113E. Mares2.20108111182LSep 19 · 19:00D. Opanasiuk1.441413113E. Mares2.63121170WSep 19 · 18:30E. Mares1.67111112123Z. Bilek2.109814101WSep 19 · 17:30L. Zeman1.83118151192E. Mares1.831311138113
V. Koubek10
WSep 21 · 15:30V. Koubek2.6371111113J. Zajicek1.44117551LSep 16 · 21:28E. Mares2.101111113V. Koubek1.675740LSep 16 · 20:00E. Mares2.0010121111113V. Koubek1.7312149882WSep 16 · 19:00J. Medek1.44411771V. Koubek2.6311911113WSep 16 · 18:30V. Koubek2.50115711113J. Zajicek1.5071111462WSep 15 · 21:00V. Koubek1.911311113Z. Bilek1.8011990LSep 15 · 20:00E. Mares2.001111113V. Koubek1.738880LSep 15 · 19:00M. Zahradka2.501111113V. Koubek1.507560WSep 15 · 18:30V. Koubek1.801111113Z. Bilek1.919590LSep 13 · 21:00J. Cernik1.301413123V. Koubek3.401211100
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