TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 20Finished
Vasily Kondratenko
Home
1.40
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
118911911711––
Serhii Kovalenko
Away
2.75
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:06 and never touched — 58.9% is still 58.9%
Graded at full timeVasily Kondratenko to win
58.9%
58.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingVasily Kondratenko above · Serhii Kovalenko below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 77 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Vasily Kondratenko at 58.9%
77 points played in total.
H2H Vasily Kondratenko 1–0 Serhii Kovalenko Serhii Kovalenko has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:06What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Kondratenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Kondratenko 1207 vs Kovalenko 1181
Kondratenko
Wrong
both rated, 26 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kondratenko 80% vs Kovalenko 60%
Kondratenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kondratenko 40% vs Kovalenko 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kondratenko +3 · Kovalenko +1
Kondratenko
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Kondratenko) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kovalenko form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKondratenko 1.40 / Kovalenko 2.75
Signal prob.66% / 34%
Edge (Kondratenko)+0.0pp
Setka Cup · #13161926
Kondratenko1.40
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite60% won 76 of 126
Up 2–0, closes it94% 34 of 36
Up 1–0, closes it81% 54 of 67
Kovalenko2.75
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeKondratenko1wins
AwayKovalenko0wins
Kondratenko leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricKondratenkoKovalenkoKondratenko − KovalenkoBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match40.035.0+5.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKondratenkoKovalenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime245 / 551 vs 30 / 7044.5%42.9%245 / 551 vs 30 / 70Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.237.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KondratenkoKondratenko 1.40/Kovalenko 2.75
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
66.3%
Kondratenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kovalenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WApr 26 · 12:05V. Kondratenko4011711113S. Kovalenko35911871
V. Kondratenko10
WSep 20 · 15:10V. Varchenko2.7511831142V. Kondratenko1.40311118113WSep 20 · 14:10V. Kondratenko1.7311101311103V. Mykhalchenko2.0081215932WSep 20 · 13:10O. Stopin3.001174111V. Kondratenko1.3671111133LSep 20 · 11:40V. Kondratenko1.8311711592Y. Korotin1.83711811113WSep 16 · 12:20V. Kondratenko1.6711916123D. Khavanskyi2.1041114101LSep 16 · 10:20Y. Korotin2.201111113V. Kondratenko1.615560LSep 16 · 09:20V. Kondratenko1.737101161S. Hovorunets2.0011126113LSep 16 · 08:20V. Stukalov2.1031111173V. Kondratenko1.671168151LSep 16 · 06:50V. Kondratenko1.33111111972S. Semenets3.25741311113LAug 28 · 09:35K. Klymenko1.509101111113V. Kondratenko2.5011127482
S. Kovalenko10
WSep 20 · 16:10V. Mykhalchenko1.80117671S. Kovalenko1.9161111113LSep 20 · 14:40O. Stopin1.6511102S. Kovalenko2.05480LSep 20 · 12:40Y. Korotin1.50118118143S. Kovalenko2.50511711122WSep 20 · 10:40V. Varchenko1.57871151S. Kovalenko2.2511112113WAug 22 · 12:20S. Kovalenko1.3611125113K. Vernudin3.006101161LAug 22 · 10:20O. Ponomarenko1.8311511113S. Kovalenko1.83711691LAug 22 · 09:20S. Kovalenko1.5711514792M. Tkalich2.254111211113WAug 22 · 08:20D. Kunchurov2.388790S. Kovalenko1.531111113WAug 22 · 06:50S. Kovalenko1.80111176113V. Mykhalchenko1.9197111152LJul 16 · 11:05O. Miklukha1.331111113S. Kovalenko3.259870
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