TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 20Finished
David Sabuka
Home
1.33
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
6111412118811119
Jan Mares
Away
3.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:55 and never touched — 66.3% is still 66.3%
Graded at full timeDavid Sabuka to win
66.3%
66.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDavid Sabuka above · Jan Mares below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 14-12
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 101 set 5, 11-9 — our read held David Sabuka at 66.3%
101 points played in total.
H2H David Sabuka 2–1 Jan Mares Jan Mares has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:55What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Sabuka
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-1 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sabuka 1376 vs Mares 1198
Sabuka
Correct
both rated, 177 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sabuka 80% vs Mares 40%
Sabuka
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sabuka 70% vs Mares 30%
Sabuka
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Sabuka +2 · Mares +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 71% — Strong (leans Sabuka) · live re-read · sealed at 66% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSabuka 1.33 / Mares 3.25
Signal prob.71% / 29%
Edge (Sabuka)-0.0pp
Setka Cup · #13161823
Sabuka1.33
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite51% won 62 of 122
Up 2–0, closes it100% 28 of 28
Up 1–0, closes it76% 44 of 58
Mares3.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
0%takes the first set · 0 of 10
As underdog34% won 13 of 38
Down 0–1, comes back29% 8 of 28
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 18
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeSabuka2wins
AwayMares1wins
1 of 3 to a deciderSabuka leads 2–1, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sabuka2Mares1n = 3Sabuka took 2 of 3
S2Sabuka2Mares1n = 3Sabuka took 2 of 3
S3Sabuka2Mares1n = 3Sabuka took 2 of 3
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home133%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home133%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away133%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricSabukaMaresS − MBasisWins21+1in 3 meetingsFirst set21+1of 3Avg pointsper match41.529.5+12.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSabukaMaresBasisWin rate · lifetime246 / 516 vs 46 / 12247.7%37.7%246 / 516 vs 46 / 122Avg sets wonper match2.01.7per matchAvg pointsper match38.535.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SabukaSabuka 1.33/Mares 3.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
70.9%
Sabuka · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Sabuka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WSep 20 · 19:30D. Sabuka50614118113J. Mares51111281192
WSep 12 · 20:34D. Sabuka331111113J. Mares84220
D. Sabuka10
WSep 20 · 18:30D. Sabuka2.009111111113M. Cmil1.7311413972WSep 20 · 17:30D. Sabuka1.3011117113A. Akopyan3.40981141LSep 18 · 09:13D. Sabuka1.91811681M. Holub1.8011611113WSep 18 · 08:00P. Muller2.6313118932D. Sabuka1.441181111113WSep 18 · 07:00J. Vrnak3.501141081D. Sabuka1.2841112113WSep 18 · 05:30M. Holub1.53713100D. Sabuka2.381115123WSep 14 · 12:33J. Jnr1.737119101D. Sabuka2.0011411123LSep 14 · 11:30D. Sabuka1.447101191F. Fryml2.6311127113WSep 14 · 10:30D. Sabuka2.20111212113J. Jnr1.6113101091LSep 14 · 09:30D. Sabuka2.38101211582M. Holub1.531210611113
J. Mares10
WSep 20 · 19:00J. Mares1.5361111113A. Akopyan2.38119361LSep 20 · 18:00J. Mares3.40451591M. Cmil1.30111113113LSep 12 · 20:34D. Sabuka1.911111113J. Mares1.804220LSep 12 · 19:30J. Mares2.7514280J. Seeman1.401611113WSep 12 · 18:30J. Mares2.383131373D. Sabuka1.5311111151LSep 12 · 17:30J. Mares3.7531250J. Jnr1.251114113LAug 2 · 20:33V. Coubal1.731111113J. Mares2.008870LAug 2 · 19:30T. Stejskal1.361114113J. Mares3.0051220LAug 2 · 19:00J. Mares3.50961131P. Moulis1.2811116103WAug 2 · 18:00J. Mares2.251111119113V. Coubal1.5713971182
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