TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 20Finished
David Sabuka
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
9111141113119117
Marcel Cmil
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:14 and never touched — 54.9% is still 54.9%
Graded at full timeMarcel Cmil to win
54.9%
54.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDavid Sabuka above · Marcel Cmil below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 11-13
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 97 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Marcel Cmil at 54.9%
97 points played in total.
H2H David Sabuka 0–5 Marcel Cmil David Sabuka has won 0 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:14What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Cmil
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-5 in 5
Cmil
Wrong
gap of 5 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sabuka 1334 vs Cmil 1388
Cmil
Wrong
both rated, 53 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sabuka 80% vs Cmil 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sabuka 70% vs Cmil 70%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Sabuka +1 · Cmil +4
Cmil
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Cmil)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cmil form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSabuka 2.00 / Cmil 1.73
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Cmil)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13161656
Sabuka2.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog27% won 25 of 93
Down 0–1, comes back12% 8 of 66
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 38
Cmil1.73
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite58% won 79 of 136
Up 2–0, closes it90% 35 of 39
Up 1–0, closes it75% 52 of 69
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeSabuka0wins
AwayCmil5wins
4 of 5 to a deciderCmil leads 5–0, and 4 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSabukan = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayCmil100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sabuka2Cmil3n = 5Cmil took 3 of 5
S2Sabuka2Cmil3n = 5Cmil took 3 of 5
S3Sabuka3Cmil2n = 5Sabuka took 3 of 5
S4Sabuka2Cmil3n = 5Cmil took 3 of 5
S5Sabuka0Cmil4n = 4Cmil took 4 of 4
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away480%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricSabukaCmilS − CBasisWins05−5in 5 meetingsFirst set23−1of 5Avg pointsper match42.846.4−3.6per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSabukaCmilBasisWin rate · lifetime246 / 516 vs 363 / 66547.7%54.6%246 / 516 vs 363 / 665Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.439.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CmilSabuka 2.00/Cmil 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.9%
Cmil · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Sabuka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LSep 1 · 08:00D. Sabuka51613911122M. Cmil511111114143
LAug 20 · 09:03D. Sabuka4011681142M. Cmil41511113113
LAug 20 · 06:00D. Sabuka3761011101M. Cmil3811123123
LJul 26 · 19:00D. Sabuka4011711742M. Cmil47711711113
LJul 20 · 07:30D. Sabuka4691412562M. Cmil5511121011113
D. Sabuka10
WSep 20 · 17:30D. Sabuka1.3011117113A. Akopyan3.40981141LSep 18 · 09:13D. Sabuka1.91811681M. Holub1.8011611113WSep 18 · 08:00P. Muller2.6313118932D. Sabuka1.441181111113WSep 18 · 07:00J. Vrnak3.501141081D. Sabuka1.2841112113WSep 18 · 05:30M. Holub1.53713100D. Sabuka2.381115123WSep 14 · 12:33J. Jnr1.737119101D. Sabuka2.0011411123LSep 14 · 11:30D. Sabuka1.447101191F. Fryml2.6311127113WSep 14 · 10:30D. Sabuka2.20111212113J. Jnr1.6113101091LSep 14 · 09:30D. Sabuka2.38101211582M. Holub1.531210611113WSep 12 · 20:34D. Sabuka1.911111113J. Mares1.804220
M. Cmil10
WSep 20 · 18:00J. Mares3.40451591M. Cmil1.30111113113WSep 19 · 13:15J. Jnr1.80131111592M. Cmil1.90156911113WSep 19 · 11:30M. Cmil2.0012811113L. Boura1.731011651WSep 19 · 10:30M. Cmil1.61116511113P. Moulis2.2091111882LSep 19 · 09:30M. Cmil1.83119791J. Jnr1.8351111113LSep 16 · 09:03M. Cmil1.9191191192L. Krutina1.80119117113WSep 16 · 08:00L. Krutina1.8012113852M. Cmil1.911061111113WSep 16 · 07:00P. Cizek2.3891112862M. Cmil1.531171011113WSep 16 · 05:30M. Obraz1.576890M. Cmil2.251111113LSep 8 · 20:58M. Cmil1.831011111392J. Jnr1.831271311113
Upcoming Matches
D. Sabuka
Nothing scheduled
M. Cmil
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.