TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13159605
Played Sep 19Finished
Jakub Dufek Jnr
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1315116119511911
Marcel Cmil
Away
1.90
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
How it is goingJakub Dufek Jnr above · Marcel Cmil below
Set 1 · 13-15
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 5-11
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 101 set 5, 9-11
101 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Dufek Jnr 21–30 Marcel Cmil Jakub Dufek Jnr has won 21 of their 51 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Jnr beat Cmil 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Jnr)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jnr form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJnr 1.80 / Cmil 1.90
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Jnr)+2.6pp
Setka Cup · #13159605
Jnr1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite60% won 88 of 146
Up 2–0, closes it92% 46 of 50
Up 1–0, closes it73% 63 of 86
Cmil1.90
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog48% won 59 of 123
Down 0–1, comes back29% 20 of 68
Down 0–2, comes back16% 7 of 43
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJnr6wins
AwayCmil4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderJnr leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJnr66.7%2 of 3
AwayCmil42.9%3 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jnr3Cmil7n = 10Cmil took 7 of 10
S2Jnr5Cmil5n = 10split evenly
S3Jnr7Cmil3n = 10Jnr took 7 of 10
S4Jnr6Cmil4n = 10Jnr took 6 of 10
S5Jnr2Cmil1n = 3Jnr took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricJnrCmilJ − CBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match40.239.6+0.6per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJnrCmilBasisWin rate · lifetime253 / 491 vs 361 / 66351.5%54.5%253 / 491 vs 361 / 663Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.539.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JnrJnr 1.80/Cmil 1.90
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Jnr · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Cmil won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 19 · 09:30J. Jnr3851111113M. Cmil36119791
WSep 8 · 20:58J. Jnr541271311113M. Cmil541011111392
LSep 8 · 20:00J. Jnr29511851M. Cmil4011711113
WAug 25 · 16:00J. Jnr4381211123M. Cmil3811107101
WJul 18 · 19:30J. Jnr4181111113M. Cmil29114681
LJul 4 · 18:45J. Jnr311164101M. Cmil4281111123
WJul 2 · 12:39J. Jnr3911116113M. Cmil33791161
WJul 2 · 10:30J. Jnr48961111113M. Cmil3211114332
LJun 28 · 10:30J. Jnr48107111192M. Cmil50121188113
LJun 27 · 14:00J. Jnr31781151M. Cmil4211119113
J. Jnr10
WSep 19 · 12:00P. Moulis2.0511111110102J. Jnr1.65813812123WSep 19 · 11:00L. Boura1.619890J. Jnr2.201111113WSep 19 · 09:30M. Cmil1.83119791J. Jnr1.8351111113LSep 17 · 12:58L. Krutina1.57111199113J. Jnr2.2585111152WSep 17 · 11:30J. Seeman1.731311101562J. Jnr2.0011131213113WSep 17 · 11:00J. Jnr2.001111113P. Moulis1.734490LSep 17 · 10:00J. Jnr2.10116761L. Krutina1.6791111113LSep 15 · 13:08J. Jnr1.739990J. Blazek2.001111113WSep 15 · 12:00M. Obraz1.737114151J. Jnr2.0011411173LSep 15 · 11:00J. Blazek2.25811912113J. Jnr1.57117111072
M. Cmil10
WSep 19 · 11:30M. Cmil2.0012811113L. Boura1.731011651WSep 19 · 10:30M. Cmil1.61116511113P. Moulis2.2091111882LSep 19 · 09:30M. Cmil1.83119791J. Jnr1.8351111113LSep 16 · 09:03M. Cmil1.9191191192L. Krutina1.80119117113WSep 16 · 08:00L. Krutina1.8012113852M. Cmil1.911061111113WSep 16 · 07:00P. Cizek2.3891112862M. Cmil1.531171011113WSep 16 · 05:30M. Obraz1.576890M. Cmil2.251111113LSep 8 · 20:58M. Cmil1.831011111392J. Jnr1.831271311113WSep 8 · 20:00J. Jnr1.80511851M. Cmil1.9111711113WSep 8 · 19:00M. Vydra1.61121191252M. Cmil2.201091114113
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