TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 20Finished
Jan Mares
Home
1.53
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
611119113116––
Artur Akopyan
Away
2.38
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:55 and never touched — 65.3% is still 65.3%
Graded at full timeJan Mares to win
65.3%
65.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Mares above · Artur Akopyan below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-3
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 68 set 4, 11-6 — our read held Jan Mares at 65.3%
68 points played in total.
H2H Jan Mares 11–7 Artur Akopyan Artur Akopyan has won 7 of their 18 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:55What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Mares
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-7 in 18
Mares
Correct
gap of 4 in 18, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mares 1194 vs Akopyan 1161
Mares
Correct
both rated, 32 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mares 20% vs Akopyan 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mares 20% vs Akopyan 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Mares -3 · Akopyan -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Slight lean (leans Mares) · live re-read · sealed at 65% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Akopyan form (20%) is below what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMares 1.53 / Akopyan 2.38
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Mares)+0.8pp
Setka Cup · #13161856
Mares1.53
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest0%takes the first set · 0 of 10
As favourite
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Akopyan2.38
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog33% won 47 of 143
Down 0–1, comes back22% 22 of 98
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 58
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMares7wins
AwayAkopyan3wins
1 of 10 to a deciderMares leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMares85.7%6 of 7
AwayAkopyan66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mares7Akopyan3n = 10Mares took 7 of 10
S2Mares6Akopyan4n = 10Mares took 6 of 10
S3Mares7Akopyan2n = 9Mares took 7 of 9
S4Mares2Akopyan2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMaresAkopyanM − ABasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match35.931.5+4.4per matchSweeps41+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMaresAkopyanBasisWin rate · lifetime45 / 120 vs 216 / 51137.5%42.3%45 / 120 vs 216 / 511Avg sets wonper match1.71.9per matchAvg pointsper match35.737.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MaresMares 1.53/Akopyan 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
61.6%
Mares · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Mares won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LMar 8 · 16:00J. Mares32118761A. Akopyan3851111113
WDec 14 · 16:30J. Mares351113113A. Akopyan2991190
WNov 16 · 07:30J. Mares331111113A. Akopyan123630
LSep 22 · 20:00J. Mares171790A. Akopyan331111113
LSep 14 · 20:33J. Mares4361111962A. Akopyan48118711113
WSep 14 · 17:30J. Mares4291111113A. Akopyan31119561
WAug 17 · 20:00J. Mares4911819113A. Akopyan374111751
WAug 13 · 08:00J. Mares361411113A. Akopyan2412750
J. Mares10
LSep 20 · 19:30D. Sabuka1.33614118113J. Mares3.25111281192LSep 20 · 18:00J. Mares3.40451591M. Cmil1.30111113113LSep 12 · 20:34D. Sabuka1.911111113J. Mares1.804220LSep 12 · 19:30J. Mares2.7514280J. Seeman1.401611113WSep 12 · 18:30J. Mares2.383131373D. Sabuka1.5311111151LSep 12 · 17:30J. Mares3.7531250J. Jnr1.251114113LAug 2 · 20:33V. Coubal1.731111113J. Mares2.008870LAug 2 · 19:30T. Stejskal1.361114113J. Mares3.0051220LAug 2 · 19:00J. Mares3.50961131P. Moulis1.2811116103WAug 2 · 18:00J. Mares2.251111119113V. Coubal1.5713971182
A. Akopyan10
LSep 20 · 17:30D. Sabuka1.3011117113A. Akopyan3.40981141LSep 16 · 17:05A. Akopyan2.757960V. Coubal1.401111113LSep 16 · 16:00V. Coubal1.4451111153A. Akopyan2.631197131WSep 16 · 15:00P. Fiser1.7311611672A. Akopyan2.00711711113LSep 16 · 13:30A. Skyba1.5711412113A. Akopyan2.258111051LSep 9 · 08:38A. Akopyan3.2571291132F. Fryml1.331110115113LSep 9 · 08:00A. Akopyan2.201071461M. Holub1.61121112113LSep 9 · 06:30L. Krutina1.33111111113A. Akopyan3.25561351LSep 9 · 06:00F. Fryml1.611111113A. Akopyan2.207620WSep 6 · 16:34A. Akopyan2.1012136113P. Muller1.6710111191
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