TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 20Finished
Oleh Maksymkiv
Home
1.44
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
71111710121113––
Illia Fokin
Away
2.63
At publish
Lost last 6Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 6
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:05 and never touched — 57.0% is still 57.0%
Graded at full timeOleh Maksymkiv to win
57.0%
57.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOleh Maksymkiv above · Illia Fokin below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 11-13
Point 82 set 4, 11-13 — our read held Oleh Maksymkiv at 57.0%
82 points played in total.
H2H Oleh Maksymkiv 5–3 Illia Fokin Illia Fokin has won 3 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:05What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Maksymkiv
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-3 in 8
Maksymkiv
Wrong
gap of 2 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Maksymkiv 1240 vs Fokin 1072
Maksymkiv
Wrong
both rated, 168 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Maksymkiv 40% vs Fokin 0%
Maksymkiv
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Maksymkiv 40% vs Fokin 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Maksymkiv +2 · Fokin -6
Fokin
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% — Clear lean (leans Maksymkiv) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Fokin form (0%) is below what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMaksymkiv 1.44 / Fokin 2.63
Signal prob.68% / 32%
Edge (Maksymkiv)+3.2pp
Setka Cup · #13161594
Maksymkiv1.44
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite69% won 119 of 173
Up 2–0, closes it92% 55 of 60
Up 1–0, closes it78% 80 of 102
Fokin2.63
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 6
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog44% won 35 of 79
Down 0–1, comes back28% 13 of 46
Down 0–2, comes back11% 2 of 19
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeMaksymkiv5wins
AwayFokin3wins
2 of 8 to a deciderMaksymkiv leads 5–3, and 2 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMaksymkiv83.3%5 of 6
AwayFokinn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Maksymkiv6Fokin2n = 8Maksymkiv took 6 of 8
S2Maksymkiv3Fokin5n = 8Fokin took 5 of 8
S3Maksymkiv5Fokin3n = 8Maksymkiv took 5 of 8
S4Maksymkiv1Fokin3n = 4Fokin took 3 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home338%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home225%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away225%
0–3Straight, away113%
These 8 meetings
MetricMaksymkivFokinM − FBasisWins53+2in 8 meetingsFirst set62+4of 8Avg pointsper match36.435.1+1.3per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMaksymkivFokinBasisWin rate · lifetime385 / 742 vs 145 / 28051.9%51.8%385 / 742 vs 145 / 280Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.138.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MaksymkivMaksymkiv 1.44/Fokin 2.63
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
67.7%
Maksymkiv · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Fokin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LSep 17 · 17:25O. Maksymkiv26134361I. Fokin44111111113
LApr 28 · 11:25O. Maksymkiv411161861I. Fokin51131116113
WApr 15 · 08:25O. Maksymkiv51119911113I. Fokin4391111662
WMar 28 · 09:25O. Maksymkiv331111113I. Fokin229850
WMar 19 · 11:55O. Maksymkiv331111113I. Fokin219750
LMar 4 · 12:55O. Maksymkiv2210570I. Fokin341211113
WFeb 12 · 07:25O. Maksymkiv50119114153I. Fokin43111711132
WFeb 11 · 18:25O. Maksymkiv351113113I. Fokin2391130
O. Maksymkiv10
WSep 20 · 16:25V. Salivonchyk1.91741181O. Maksymkiv1.8011119113WSep 20 · 14:28O. Maslovskyi4.4078121132O. Maksymkiv1.151111109113WSep 20 · 12:55O. Maksymkiv2.751113119113M. Treschetka1.4091561182LSep 17 · 18:25V. Hel1.8311119113O. Maksymkiv1.83891161LSep 17 · 17:25I. Fokin2.63111111113O. Maksymkiv1.44134361LSep 17 · 15:55V. Kheresko2.00991111113O. Maksymkiv1.7311116882WSep 17 · 13:55O. Melnik1.30159110O. Maksymkiv3.401711133LSep 17 · 11:55M. Treschetka1.401111113O. Maksymkiv2.754840WSep 16 · 11:25V. Hel1.808101171O. Maksymkiv1.9111125113LSep 16 · 09:55O. Maksymkiv2.75145981D. Kasian1.40121111113
I. Fokin10
LSep 20 · 13:25V. Salivonchyk1.611111113I. Fokin2.207760LSep 20 · 12:25O. Maslovskyi1.9111711113I. Fokin1.80811771LSep 18 · 11:25O. Maslovskyi2.1011117113I. Fokin1.67781171LSep 18 · 09:55I. Fokin2.75712261V. Kheresko1.40111011113LSep 18 · 07:55M. Vivatenko1.61101111113I. Fokin2.20128851LSep 18 · 05:55M. Treschetka1.5081111153I. Fokin2.501135131WSep 18 · 04:55H. Oliynyk1.53111111962I. Fokin2.38541311113LSep 17 · 18:55O. Melnik1.3011711113I. Fokin3.40911961WSep 17 · 17:25I. Fokin2.63111111113O. Maksymkiv1.44134361WSep 17 · 15:25V. Hel1.501071161I. Fokin2.5012114113
Upcoming Matches
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.