TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13148524
Played Sep 18Finished
Illia Fokin
Home
2.75
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
7111210211611––
Vsevolod Kheresko
Away
1.40
At publish
Won last 10Form at publish
10–0Last 10Won last 10
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:52 and never touched — 68.1% is still 68.1%
Graded at full timeVsevolod Kheresko to win
68.1%
68.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingIllia Fokin above · Vsevolod Kheresko below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 2-11
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 70 set 4, 6-11 — our read held Vsevolod Kheresko at 68.1%
70 points played in total.
H2H Illia Fokin 7–11 Vsevolod Kheresko Illia Fokin has won 7 of their 18 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:52What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Kheresko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-11 in 18
Kheresko
Correct
gap of 4 in 18, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Fokin 1079 vs Kheresko 1291
Kheresko
Correct
both rated, 212 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Fokin 40% vs Kheresko 100%
Kheresko
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Fokin 50% vs Kheresko 100%
Kheresko
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Fokin -2 · Kheresko +10
Kheresko
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% — Clear lean (leans Kheresko) · live re-read · sealed at 68% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kheresko form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFokin 2.75 / Kheresko 1.40
Signal prob.30% / 70%
Edge (Kheresko)+3.6pp
Setka Cup · #13148524
Fokin2.75
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog45% won 34 of 75
Down 0–1, comes back27% 12 of 44
Down 0–2, comes back6% 1 of 18
Kheresko1.40
100%won 10 of 10 · last 10
Won last 10
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite69% won 100 of 144
Up 2–0, closes it95% 61 of 64
Up 1–0, closes it80% 80 of 100
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeFokin2wins
AwayKheresko8wins
5 of 10 to a deciderKheresko leads 8–2, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeFokin33.3%1 of 3
AwayKheresko85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Fokin3Kheresko7n = 10Kheresko took 7 of 10
S2Fokin4Kheresko6n = 10Kheresko took 6 of 10
S3Fokin6Kheresko4n = 10Fokin took 6 of 10
S4Fokin2Kheresko8n = 10Kheresko took 8 of 10
S5Fokin2Kheresko3n = 5Kheresko took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricFokinKhereskoF − KBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match37.544.9−7.4per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFokinKhereskoBasisWin rate · lifetime145 / 276 vs 222 / 43652.5%50.9%145 / 276 vs 222 / 436Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.337.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KhereskoFokin 2.75/Kheresko 1.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
69.9%
Kheresko · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kheresko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 17 · 12:25I. Fokin30951151V. Kheresko4211119113
LSep 14 · 11:25I. Fokin51118137122V. Kheresko547111111143
LSep 13 · 14:55I. Fokin28211781V. Kheresko4211911113
LApr 30 · 10:55I. Fokin28711281V. Kheresko4111811113
LApr 29 · 17:25I. Fokin4471111872V. Kheresko46117611113
LApr 28 · 07:55I. Fokin32391191V. Kheresko4011117113
WApr 23 · 04:55I. Fokin49117911113V. Kheresko4791111972
LApr 22 · 18:55I. Fokin321112181V. Kheresko4591411113
LApr 14 · 13:25I. Fokin4071111742V. Kheresko49119711113
WMar 5 · 10:55I. Fokin41261111113V. Kheresko4311116872
I. Fokin10
LSep 18 · 07:55M. Vivatenko1.61101111113I. Fokin2.20128851LSep 18 · 05:55M. Treschetka1.5081111153I. Fokin2.501135131WSep 18 · 04:55H. Oliynyk1.53111111962I. Fokin2.38541311113LSep 17 · 18:55O. Melnik1.3011711113I. Fokin3.40911961WSep 17 · 17:25I. Fokin2.63111111113O. Maksymkiv1.44134361WSep 17 · 15:25V. Hel1.501071161I. Fokin2.5012114113LSep 17 · 13:25M. Treschetka1.36119137113I. Fokin3.00511111192LSep 17 · 12:25V. Kheresko1.4411119113I. Fokin2.63951151WSep 16 · 18:55V. Ivanytskyi1.9110980I. Fokin1.801211103WSep 16 · 17:25I. Fokin1.731181111113M. Dunas2.0061191382
V. Kheresko10
WSep 18 · 10:55M. Vivatenko1.835880V. Kheresko1.831111113WSep 18 · 08:25H. Oliynyk1.501196101V. Kheresko2.5061111123WSep 18 · 06:25O. Maslovskyi2.63101050V. Kheresko1.441212113WSep 18 · 04:25M. Treschetka2.257570V. Kheresko1.571111113WSep 17 · 17:55M. Treschetka2.10981391V. Kheresko1.67111111113WSep 17 · 16:55V. Kheresko2.00101411113O. Melnik1.731212421WSep 17 · 15:55V. Kheresko2.00991111113O. Maksymkiv1.7311116882WSep 17 · 14:25V. Kheresko2.7511116113V. Hel1.40691161WSep 17 · 12:25V. Kheresko1.4411119113I. Fokin2.63951151WSep 14 · 11:25V. Kheresko1.447111111143I. Fokin2.63118137122
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