TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13148485
Played Sep 18Finished
Hryhoriy Oliynyk
Home
1.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1169116111012––
Vsevolod Kheresko
Away
2.50
At publish
Won last 9Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 9
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:51 and never touched — 61.5% is still 61.5%
Graded at full timeHryhoriy Oliynyk to win
61.5%
61.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingHryhoriy Oliynyk above · Vsevolod Kheresko below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 10-12
Point 76 set 4, 10-12 — our read held Hryhoriy Oliynyk at 61.5%
76 points played in total.
H2H Hryhoriy Oliynyk 4–1 Vsevolod Kheresko Vsevolod Kheresko has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:51What took a side2 for · 4 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Oliynyk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-1 in 5
Oliynyk
Wrong
gap of 3 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Oliynyk 1257 vs Kheresko 1280
Kheresko
Correct
both rated, 23 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Oliynyk 60% vs Kheresko 100%
Kheresko
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Oliynyk 50% vs Kheresko 90%
Kheresko
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Oliynyk +1 · Kheresko +9
Kheresko
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Oliynyk) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kheresko form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOliynyk 1.50 / Kheresko 2.50
Signal prob.61% / 39%
Edge (Oliynyk)-1.6pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13148485
Oliynyk1.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite64% won 29 of 45
Up 2–0, closes it86% 18 of 21
Up 1–0, closes it77% 23 of 30
Kheresko2.50
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 9
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog36% won 52 of 146
Down 0–1, comes back20% 16 of 80
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 41
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeOliynyk4wins
AwayKheresko1wins
2 of 5 to a deciderOliynyk leads 4–1, and 2 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOliynyk100%4 of 4
AwayKhereskon = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Oliynyk4Kheresko1n = 5Oliynyk took 4 of 5
S2Oliynyk4Kheresko1n = 5Oliynyk took 4 of 5
S3Oliynyk3Kheresko2n = 5Oliynyk took 3 of 5
S4Oliynyk2Kheresko2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home120%
3–1Four sets, home240%
3–2Decider, home120%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricOliynykKhereskoO − KBasisWins41+3in 5 meetingsFirst set41+3of 5Avg pointsper match43.834.4+9.4per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOliynykKhereskoBasisWin rate · lifetime117 / 226 vs 221 / 43551.8%50.8%117 / 226 vs 221 / 435Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match35.537.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OliynykOliynyk 1.50/Kheresko 2.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
60.9%
Oliynyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kheresko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WSep 14 · 07:25H. Oliynyk49111188113V. Kheresko3623111192
WSep 7 · 07:25H. Oliynyk4211911113V. Kheresko33811861
WJul 22 · 05:55H. Oliynyk331111113V. Kheresko208570
WJul 8 · 04:55H. Oliynyk4511119143V. Kheresko409811121
LJun 1 · 07:25H. Oliynyk50121111882V. Kheresko43144311113
H. Oliynyk10
LSep 18 · 09:25H. Oliynyk1.33118941O. Maslovskyi3.2541111113WSep 18 · 06:55H. Oliynyk2.751111113M. Vivatenko1.407860LSep 18 · 04:55H. Oliynyk1.53111111962I. Fokin2.38541311113WSep 14 · 10:25H. Oliynyk1.171211113M. Treschetka4.5010420LSep 14 · 08:55H. Oliynyk2.755101111142M. Vivatenko1.40111275163WSep 14 · 07:25H. Oliynyk1.44111188113V. Kheresko2.6323111192LSep 14 · 05:55H. Oliynyk1.61116951I. Fokin2.2051111113WSep 14 · 04:25H. Oliynyk1.501111113V. Salivonchyk2.504780WSep 9 · 10:25H. Oliynyk1.2811117113D. Belanchik3.50541131LSep 9 · 08:55H. Oliynyk2.3811511892V. Dobrovolskyi1.53911311113
V. Kheresko10
WSep 18 · 06:25O. Maslovskyi2.63101050V. Kheresko1.441212113WSep 18 · 04:25M. Treschetka2.257570V. Kheresko1.571111113WSep 17 · 17:55M. Treschetka2.10981391V. Kheresko1.67111111113WSep 17 · 16:55V. Kheresko2.00101411113O. Melnik1.731212421WSep 17 · 15:55V. Kheresko2.00991111113O. Maksymkiv1.7311116882WSep 17 · 14:25V. Kheresko2.7511116113V. Hel1.40691161WSep 17 · 12:25V. Kheresko1.4411119113I. Fokin2.63951151WSep 14 · 11:25V. Kheresko1.447111111143I. Fokin2.63118137122WSep 14 · 09:25M. Treschetka1.8371181192V. Kheresko1.83113113113LSep 14 · 07:25H. Oliynyk1.44111188113V. Kheresko2.6323111192
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