TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 20Finished
Andrii Kotiash
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 4
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
31111314121210––
Andrii Kurtenko
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:42 and never touched — 54.3% is still 54.3%
Graded at full timeAndrii Kotiash to win
54.3%
54.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAndrii Kotiash above · Andrii Kurtenko below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 14-12
Set 4 · 12-10
Point 76 set 4, 12-10 — our read held Andrii Kotiash at 54.3%
76 points played in total.
H2H Andrii Kotiash 5–6 Andrii Kurtenko Andrii Kotiash has won 5 of their 11 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:42What took a side1 for · 4 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Kurtenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-6 in 11
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kotiash 1431 vs Kurtenko 1432
Kurtenko
Wrong
both rated, 1 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kotiash 20% vs Kurtenko 60%
Kurtenko
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kotiash 10% vs Kurtenko 50%
Kurtenko
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kotiash -4 · Kurtenko -2
Kotiash
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kurtenko) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kotiash form (20%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKotiash 1.83 / Kurtenko 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Kurtenko)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13161244
Kotiash1.83
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Kurtenko1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKotiash5wins
AwayKurtenko5wins
6 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKotiash66.7%4 of 6
AwayKurtenko75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kotiash6Kurtenko4n = 10Kotiash took 6 of 10
S2Kotiash7Kurtenko3n = 10Kotiash took 7 of 10
S3Kotiash5Kurtenko5n = 10split evenly
S4Kotiash1Kurtenko6n = 7Kurtenko took 6 of 7
S5Kotiash3Kurtenko3n = 6split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKotiashKurtenkoKotiash − KurtenkoBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match40.941.4−0.5per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKotiashKurtenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime221 / 472 vs 344 / 65646.8%52.4%221 / 472 vs 344 / 656Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.936.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KurtenkoKotiash 1.83/Kurtenko 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Kurtenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kotiash won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LMar 25 · 18:50A. Kotiash33871351A. Kurtenko44111111113
WMar 7 · 18:50A. Kotiash50121179113A. Kurtenko47109111162
WJan 29 · 06:50A. Kotiash53161196113A. Kurtenko51149111162
LDec 13 · 09:05A. Kotiash2615830A. Kurtenko391711113
LDec 11 · 15:40A. Kotiash4714129842A. Kurtenko5512101111113
WMay 8 · 08:00A. Kotiash331111113A. Kurtenko215790
WMay 6 · 08:30A. Kotiash351111133A. Kurtenko1843110
LApr 29 · 04:30A. Kotiash43711111042A. Kurtenko46116612113
LApr 28 · 06:35A. Kotiash4514851172A. Kurtenko521211117113
WApr 17 · 07:30A. Kotiash44511125113A. Kurtenko41116101132
A. Kotiash10
LSep 20 · 07:20A. Kotiash1.80711651S. Solomko1.9111811113LSep 20 · 05:50A. Kotiash1.917511101E. Populovskyi1.8011119123LSep 19 · 11:35A. Kotiash2.63511851V. Kryvenko1.4411911113LSep 19 · 09:35Y. Volkov1.2881111113A. Kotiash3.50114221WSep 19 · 08:35A. Kotiash2.2011116113Y. Kovshun1.61961141LSep 19 · 07:35I. Efimenko1.2061112113A. Kotiash4.331161081LSep 19 · 06:05A. Kotiash2.63811731Y. Makovka1.4411911113LSep 12 · 11:05I. Efimenko1.131110811113A. Kotiash5.5041211492LSep 12 · 10:05A. Kotiash1.739720V. Bilobrov2.001111113LSep 12 · 09:05A. Kotiash2.20111791182Y. Kovshun1.61219118113
A. Kurtenko10
LSep 20 · 07:50A. Kurtenko1.8010119101E. Populovskyi1.9112911123LSep 20 · 06:50D. Khairov1.361112113A. Kurtenko3.0051020WSep 16 · 18:30B. Zaika1.5310811111A. Kurtenko2.3812118133WSep 16 · 17:30O. Ovsiienko1.838750A. Kurtenko1.831111113WSep 16 · 16:00V. Smyk1.91571191A. Kurtenko1.8011116113LSep 16 · 14:00O. Tymofeev1.531111113A. Kurtenko2.383930LSep 16 · 12:00F. Voinarovskyi1.33118811113A. Kurtenko3.2521111762LSep 15 · 12:05A. Martyniuk1.361111173A. Kurtenko3.0069150WSep 15 · 10:35A. Kurtenko1.91111011123E. Populovskyi1.806127101WSep 15 · 08:35A. Kovalenko1.83711921A. Kurtenko1.8311711113
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