TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13155093
Played Sep 19Finished
Ivan Efimenko
Home
1.20
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
6111161210118––
Andrii Kotiash
Away
4.33
At publish
Lost last 13Form at publish
0–10Last 10Lost last 13
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:20 and never touched — 73.1% is still 73.1%
Graded at full timeIvan Efimenko to win
73.1%
73.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingIvan Efimenko above · Andrii Kotiash below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 75 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Ivan Efimenko at 73.1%
75 points played in total.
H2H Ivan Efimenko 5–0 Andrii Kotiash Andrii Kotiash has won 0 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:20What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.20 (78%)
Efimenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-0 in 5
Efimenko
Correct
gap of 5 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Efimenko 1639 vs Kotiash 1465
Efimenko
Correct
both rated, 174 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Efimenko 40% vs Kotiash 0%
Efimenko
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Efimenko 50% vs Kotiash 0%
Efimenko
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Efimenko -2 · Kotiash -13
Kotiash
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 83% — Strong (leans Efimenko) · live re-read · sealed at 73% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kotiash form (0%) is below what odds imply (23%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsEfimenko 1.20 / Kotiash 4.33
Signal prob.83% / 17%
Edge (Efimenko)+4.4pp
Setka Cup · #13155093
Efimenko1.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite57% won 12 of 21
Up 2–0, closes it100% 5 of 5
Up 1–0, closes it80% 8 of 10
Kotiash4.33
0%won 0 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 13
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog39% won 55 of 140
Down 0–1, comes back24% 20 of 85
Down 0–2, comes back13% 7 of 56
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeEfimenko5wins
AwayKotiash0wins
1 of 5 to a deciderEfimenko leads 5–0, and 1 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeEfimenko100%4 of 4
AwayKotiashn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Efimenko4Kotiash1n = 5Efimenko took 4 of 5
S2Efimenko4Kotiash1n = 5Efimenko took 4 of 5
S3Efimenko4Kotiash1n = 5Efimenko took 4 of 5
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home360%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home120%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricEfimenkoKotiashE − KBasisWins50+5in 5 meetingsFirst set41+3of 5Avg pointsper match38.024.6+13.4per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricEfimenkoKotiashBasisWin rate · lifetime16 / 27 vs 221 / 47059.3%47%16 / 27 vs 221 / 470Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.736.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
EfimenkoEfimenko 1.20/Kotiash 4.33
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
82.7%
Efimenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Efimenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WSep 19 · 07:35I. Efimenko4061112113A. Kotiash351161081
WSep 12 · 11:05I. Efimenko511110811113A. Kotiash4041211492
WSep 5 · 09:20I. Efimenko331111113A. Kotiash133640
WAug 29 · 10:05I. Efimenko331111113A. Kotiash175660
WAug 22 · 08:05I. Efimenko331111113A. Kotiash187380
I. Efimenko10
LSep 19 · 05:35I. Efimenko1.44411771Y. Kovshun2.6311811113LSep 17 · 17:40A. Droshchynskyi2.00111111153I. Efimenko1.738713131WSep 17 · 16:10I. Efimenko1.80611119113A. Zozulia1.9111981192WSep 17 · 14:10Y. Holoborodko1.8011114472I. Efimenko1.91561111113LSep 17 · 12:10V. Merzlikin2.6311911113I. Efimenko1.44911291LSep 17 · 11:10V. Maksuta1.91711112113I. Efimenko1.8011941182WSep 12 · 11:05I. Efimenko1.131110811113A. Kotiash5.5041211492LSep 12 · 09:35I. Efimenko1.6141090Y. Volkov2.201112113WSep 12 · 08:05I. Efimenko1.2051111113V. Bilobrov4.33118521WSep 12 · 06:35I. Efimenko1.3681311113A. Troyan3.001111881
A. Kotiash10
WSep 19 · 08:35A. Kotiash2.2011116113Y. Kovshun1.61961141LSep 19 · 06:05A. Kotiash2.63811731Y. Makovka1.4411911113LSep 12 · 11:05I. Efimenko1.131110811113A. Kotiash5.5041211492LSep 12 · 10:05A. Kotiash1.739720V. Bilobrov2.001111113LSep 12 · 09:05A. Kotiash2.20111791182Y. Kovshun1.61219118113LSep 12 · 07:35A. Kotiash3.406101101Y. Volkov1.3011129113LSep 12 · 05:35A. Kotiash2.5021090A. Troyan1.501112113LSep 11 · 10:30Y. Volkov1.30611911113A. Kotiash3.4011311392LSep 11 · 09:30A. Kotiash1.409720V. Bilobrov2.751111113LSep 11 · 08:30A. Kotiash2.2011184862O. Karpenko1.61216111193
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