TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13142693
Played Sep 17Finished
Valerii Merzlikin
Home
2.63
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
119911112119––
Ivan Efimenko
Away
1.44
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:15 and never touched — 67.3% is still 67.3%
Graded at full timeIvan Efimenko to win
67.3%
67.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingValerii Merzlikin above · Ivan Efimenko below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-2
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 73 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Ivan Efimenko at 67.3%
73 points played in total.
H2H Valerii Merzlikin 1–0 Ivan Efimenko Ivan Efimenko has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:15What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Efimenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Merzlikin 1543 vs Efimenko 1631
Efimenko
Wrong
both rated, 88 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Merzlikin 80% vs Efimenko 60%
Merzlikin
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Merzlikin 60% vs Efimenko 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Merzlikin +3 · Efimenko -1
Merzlikin
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Efimenko) · live re-read · sealed at 67% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Merzlikin form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMerzlikin 2.63 / Efimenko 1.44
Signal prob.35% / 65%
Edge (Efimenko)+0.8pp
Setka Cup · #13142693
Merzlikin2.63
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog48% won 39 of 81
Down 0–1, comes back29% 14 of 48
Down 0–2, comes back11% 3 of 27
Efimenko1.44
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite65% won 11 of 17
Up 2–0, closes it100% 5 of 5
Up 1–0, closes it89% 8 of 9
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeMerzlikin1wins
AwayEfimenko0wins
Merzlikin leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricMerzlikinEfimenkoM − EBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match42.031.0+11.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMerzlikinEfimenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime275 / 607 vs 13 / 2245.3%59.1%275 / 607 vs 13 / 22Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.935.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
EfimenkoMerzlikin 2.63/Efimenko 1.44
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
65.3%
Efimenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Merzlikin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WSep 17 · 12:10V. Merzlikin4211911113I. Efimenko31911291
V. Merzlikin10
WSep 17 · 10:40V. Merzlikin2.251114113A. Zozulia1.5761290WSep 16 · 17:10V. Merzlikin1.53111110113D. Habrelyan2.38491241WSep 16 · 15:10O. Kuzyshyn1.73115661V. Merzlikin2.0081111113LSep 16 · 14:10V. Merzlikin2.0091040A. Zozulia1.731112113WSep 16 · 13:10Y. Skorobahatyi1.5311116862V. Merzlikin2.38641111113LSep 16 · 11:40V. Merzlikin2.005680Y. Holoborodko1.731111113WSep 12 · 16:40Y. Skorobahatyi1.50137751V. Merzlikin2.50111111113LSep 12 · 15:40V. Merzlikin3.409540A. Droshchynskyi1.30111153WSep 12 · 14:40V. Merzlikin1.8341191183V. Maksuta1.8311911972LSep 12 · 13:10V. Merzlikin1.53116971M. Tiutiunnyk2.3891111113
I. Efimenko10
LSep 17 · 11:10V. Maksuta1.91711112113I. Efimenko1.8011941182WSep 12 · 11:05I. Efimenko1.131110811113A. Kotiash5.5041211492LSep 12 · 09:35I. Efimenko1.6141090Y. Volkov2.201112113WSep 12 · 08:05I. Efimenko1.2051111113V. Bilobrov4.33118521WSep 12 · 06:35I. Efimenko1.3681311113A. Troyan3.001111881LSep 12 · 05:05I. Efimenko1.44103111242Y. Kovshun2.631211810113WSep 5 · 11:19I. Efimenko1.8511116113Y. Volkov1.85881191WSep 5 · 09:20A. Kotiash4.333640I. Efimenko1.201111113WSep 5 · 08:20I. Efimenko1.531111113A. Troyan2.388870WSep 5 · 07:18Y. Volkov1.67811751I. Efimenko2.1011611113
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