TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13155495
Played Sep 19Finished
Ivan Efimenko
Home
1.44
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
411118711711––
Yaroslav Kovshun
Away
2.63
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:02 and never touched — 57.1% is still 57.1%
Graded at full timeIvan Efimenko to win
57.1%
57.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingIvan Efimenko above · Yaroslav Kovshun below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 70 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Ivan Efimenko at 57.1%
70 points played in total.
H2H Ivan Efimenko 2–1 Yaroslav Kovshun Yaroslav Kovshun has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:02What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Efimenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-1 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Efimenko 1651 vs Kovshun 1583
Efimenko
Wrong
both rated, 68 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Efimenko 40% vs Kovshun 20%
Efimenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Efimenko 50% vs Kovshun 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Efimenko -1 · Kovshun -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Efimenko) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kovshun form (20%) is below what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsEfimenko 1.44 / Kovshun 2.63
Signal prob.65% / 35%
Edge (Efimenko)+0.8pp
Setka Cup · #13155495
Efimenko1.44
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite57% won 12 of 21
Up 2–0, closes it100% 5 of 5
Up 1–0, closes it80% 8 of 10
Kovshun2.63
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog40% won 46 of 114
Down 0–1, comes back20% 14 of 69
Down 0–2, comes back8% 3 of 40
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeEfimenko2wins
AwayKovshun1wins
2 of 3 to a deciderEfimenko leads 2–1, and 2 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Efimenko1Kovshun2n = 3Kovshun took 2 of 3
S2Efimenko1Kovshun2n = 3Kovshun took 2 of 3
S3Efimenko3Kovshun0n = 3Efimenko took 3 of 3
S4Efimenko2Kovshun1n = 3Efimenko took 2 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home133%
3–2Decider, home133%
2–3Decider, away133%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricEfimenkoKovshunE − KBasisWins21+1in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match44.746.7−2.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricEfimenkoKovshunBasisWin rate · lifetime15 / 25 vs 340 / 63360%53.7%15 / 25 vs 340 / 633Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.838.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
EfimenkoEfimenko 1.44/Kovshun 2.63
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
65.3%
Efimenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kovshun won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LSep 12 · 05:05I. Efimenko40103111242Y. Kovshun521211810113
WSep 5 · 06:18I. Efimenko49148115113Y. Kovshun47121171162
WAug 29 · 07:05I. Efimenko4591111143Y. Kovshun411199121
I. Efimenko10
LSep 17 · 17:40A. Droshchynskyi2.00111111153I. Efimenko1.738713131WSep 17 · 16:10I. Efimenko1.80611119113A. Zozulia1.9111981192WSep 17 · 14:10Y. Holoborodko1.8011114472I. Efimenko1.91561111113LSep 17 · 12:10V. Merzlikin2.6311911113I. Efimenko1.44911291LSep 17 · 11:10V. Maksuta1.91711112113I. Efimenko1.8011941182WSep 12 · 11:05I. Efimenko1.131110811113A. Kotiash5.5041211492LSep 12 · 09:35I. Efimenko1.6141090Y. Volkov2.201112113WSep 12 · 08:05I. Efimenko1.2051111113V. Bilobrov4.33118521WSep 12 · 06:35I. Efimenko1.3681311113A. Troyan3.001111881LSep 12 · 05:05I. Efimenko1.44103111242Y. Kovshun2.631211810113
Y. Kovshun10
WSep 19 · 06:35Y. Volkov1.809660Y. Kovshun1.911111113LSep 18 · 10:30Y. Volkov1.7311119123Y. Kovshun2.009711101LSep 18 · 09:30Y. Kovshun1.9110560S. Kyienko1.801211113WSep 18 · 08:30Y. Kovshun1.679111115113O. Karpenko2.1011971772LSep 18 · 07:00Y. Kovshun1.337640V. Bilobrov3.251111113LSep 18 · 05:00Y. Kovshun1.4411570A. Troyan2.631311113LSep 15 · 11:00Y. Kovshun1.61681121O. Karpenko2.2011118113WSep 15 · 09:00V. Kolesnykov2.63861181Y. Kovshun1.4411115113LSep 15 · 08:00Y. Kovshun1.5011911482A. Troyan2.50711311113WSep 12 · 05:05I. Efimenko1.44103111242Y. Kovshun2.631211810113
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