TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13155529
Played Sep 19Finished
Andrii Kotiash
Home
2.20
At publish
Lost last 14Form at publish
0–10Last 10Lost last 14
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
119116611114––
Yaroslav Kovshun
Away
1.62
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:12 and never touched — 59.0% is still 59.0%
Graded at full timeYaroslav Kovshun to win
59.0%
59.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingAndrii Kotiash above · Yaroslav Kovshun below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-4
Point 69 set 4, 11-4 — our read held Yaroslav Kovshun at 59.0%
69 points played in total.
H2H Andrii Kotiash 6–5 Yaroslav Kovshun Yaroslav Kovshun has won 5 of their 11 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 19:12What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Kovshun
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-5 in 11
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kotiash 1448 vs Kovshun 1612
Kovshun
Wrong
both rated, 165 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kotiash 0% vs Kovshun 60%
Kovshun
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kotiash 0% vs Kovshun 40%
Kovshun
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kotiash -14 · Kovshun +2
Kotiash
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Kovshun) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kotiash form (0%) is below what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKotiash 2.20 / Kovshun 1.61
Signal prob.39% / 61%
Edge (Kovshun)+3.2pp
Setka Cup · #13155529
Kotiash2.20
0%won 0 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 14
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog39% won 55 of 140
Down 0–1, comes back24% 20 of 85
Down 0–2, comes back13% 7 of 56
Kovshun1.61
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite61% won 98 of 162
Up 2–0, closes it94% 46 of 49
Up 1–0, closes it81% 70 of 87
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKotiash6wins
AwayKovshun4wins
5 of 10 to a deciderKotiash leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKotiash71.4%5 of 7
AwayKovshun66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kotiash7Kovshun3n = 10Kotiash took 7 of 10
S2Kotiash4Kovshun6n = 10Kovshun took 6 of 10
S3Kotiash2Kovshun8n = 10Kovshun took 8 of 10
S4Kotiash4Kovshun2n = 6Kotiash took 4 of 6
S5Kotiash4Kovshun1n = 5Kotiash took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKotiashKovshunKotiash − KovshunBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match38.537.0+1.5per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKotiashKovshunBasisWin rate · lifetime221 / 470 vs 340 / 63347%53.7%221 / 470 vs 340 / 633Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.938.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KovshunKotiash 2.20/Kovshun 1.61
Miss
What we said
60.9%
Kovshun · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kotiash won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 12 · 09:05A. Kotiash56111791182Y. Kovshun51219118113
LSep 11 · 07:00A. Kotiash228950Y. Kovshun331111113
WSep 5 · 07:48A. Kotiash47117711113Y. Kovshun4791111972
LSep 4 · 07:00A. Kotiash31118841Y. Kovshun4291111113
WAug 29 · 09:05A. Kotiash331111113Y. Kovshun124530
WAug 28 · 06:00A. Kotiash341111123Y. Kovshun2468100
LJul 18 · 05:35A. Kotiash2110740Y. Kovshun341211113
WJul 17 · 11:00A. Kotiash47511911113Y. Kovshun4511811962
WJul 11 · 09:05A. Kotiash49118811113Y. Kovshun3971111642
WJul 9 · 08:00A. Kotiash45111175113Y. Kovshun4349111182
A. Kotiash10
LSep 19 · 09:35Y. Volkov1.2881111113A. Kotiash3.50114221LSep 19 · 07:35I. Efimenko1.2061112113A. Kotiash4.331161081LSep 19 · 06:05A. Kotiash2.63811731Y. Makovka1.4411911113LSep 12 · 11:05I. Efimenko1.131110811113A. Kotiash5.5041211492LSep 12 · 10:05A. Kotiash1.739720V. Bilobrov2.001111113LSep 12 · 09:05A. Kotiash2.20111791182Y. Kovshun1.61219118113LSep 12 · 07:35A. Kotiash3.406101101Y. Volkov1.3011129113LSep 12 · 05:35A. Kotiash2.5021090A. Troyan1.501112113LSep 11 · 10:30Y. Volkov1.30611911113A. Kotiash3.4011311392LSep 11 · 09:30A. Kotiash1.409720V. Bilobrov2.751111113
Y. Kovshun10
WSep 19 · 06:35Y. Volkov1.809660Y. Kovshun1.911111113WSep 19 · 05:35I. Efimenko1.44411771Y. Kovshun2.6311811113LSep 18 · 10:30Y. Volkov1.7311119123Y. Kovshun2.009711101LSep 18 · 09:30Y. Kovshun1.9110560S. Kyienko1.801211113WSep 18 · 08:30Y. Kovshun1.679111115113O. Karpenko2.1011971772LSep 18 · 07:00Y. Kovshun1.337640V. Bilobrov3.251111113LSep 18 · 05:00Y. Kovshun1.4411570A. Troyan2.631311113LSep 15 · 11:00Y. Kovshun1.61681121O. Karpenko2.2011118113WSep 15 · 09:00V. Kolesnykov2.63861181Y. Kovshun1.4411115113WSep 12 · 09:05A. Kotiash2.20111791182Y. Kovshun1.61219118113
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