TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 20Finished
Andrii Kurtenko
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
10121199111012––
Eduard Populovskyi
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:16 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeAndrii Kurtenko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingAndrii Kurtenko above · Eduard Populovskyi below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 10-12
Point 84 set 4, 10-12 — our read held Andrii Kurtenko at 54.0%
84 points played in total.
H2H Andrii Kurtenko 15–11 Eduard Populovskyi Eduard Populovskyi has won 11 of their 26 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:16What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Kurtenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
15-11 in 26
Kurtenko
Wrong
gap of 4 in 26, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kurtenko 1443 vs Populovskyi 1466
Populovskyi
Correct
both rated, 23 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kurtenko 60% vs Populovskyi 40%
Kurtenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kurtenko 50% vs Populovskyi 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kurtenko -1 · Populovskyi +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kurtenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Populovskyi form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKurtenko 1.80 / Populovskyi 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kurtenko)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13161644
Kurtenko1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite60% won 145 of 240
Up 2–0, closes it91% 82 of 90
Up 1–0, closes it80% 110 of 138
Populovskyi1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog33% won 46 of 141
Down 0–1, comes back21% 19 of 90
Down 0–2, comes back9% 6 of 64
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKurtenko7wins
AwayPopulovskyi3wins
3 of 10 to a deciderKurtenko leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKurtenko85.7%6 of 7
AwayPopulovskyi66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kurtenko7Populovskyi3n = 10Kurtenko took 7 of 10
S2Kurtenko3Populovskyi7n = 10Populovskyi took 7 of 10
S3Kurtenko5Populovskyi5n = 10split evenly
S4Kurtenko5Populovskyi3n = 8Kurtenko took 5 of 8
S5Kurtenko3Populovskyi0n = 3Kurtenko took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKurtenkoPopulovskyiK − PBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match41.637.2+4.4per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKurtenkoPopulovskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime344 / 655 vs 342 / 69452.5%49.3%344 / 655 vs 342 / 694Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.936.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KurtenkoKurtenko 1.80/Populovskyi 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Kurtenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Populovskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 15 · 10:35A. Kurtenko44111011123E. Populovskyi356127101
LSep 13 · 12:50A. Kurtenko29101090E. Populovskyi351212113
WSep 12 · 13:30A. Kurtenko4271311113E. Populovskyi351111851
WSep 3 · 06:30A. Kurtenko351111133E. Populovskyi2458110
WSep 2 · 09:05A. Kurtenko47111177113E. Populovskyi4286111162
LAug 27 · 11:20A. Kurtenko361181071E. Populovskyi3731112113
LAug 23 · 07:50A. Kurtenko359101151E. Populovskyi4311129113
WAug 22 · 19:00A. Kurtenko4211911113E. Populovskyi30911551
WAug 16 · 07:20A. Kurtenko521181111113E. Populovskyi4571113682
WAug 10 · 07:20A. Kurtenko541191011133E. Populovskyi46811124112
A. Kurtenko10
LSep 20 · 06:50D. Khairov1.361112113A. Kurtenko3.0051020WSep 16 · 18:30B. Zaika1.5310811111A. Kurtenko2.3812118133WSep 16 · 17:30O. Ovsiienko1.838750A. Kurtenko1.831111113WSep 16 · 16:00V. Smyk1.91571191A. Kurtenko1.8011116113LSep 16 · 14:00O. Tymofeev1.531111113A. Kurtenko2.383930LSep 16 · 12:00F. Voinarovskyi1.33118811113A. Kurtenko3.2521111762LSep 15 · 12:05A. Martyniuk1.361111173A. Kurtenko3.0069150WSep 15 · 10:35A. Kurtenko1.91111011123E. Populovskyi1.806127101WSep 15 · 08:35A. Kovalenko1.83711921A. Kurtenko1.8311711113LSep 15 · 06:35O. Osadchyi1.731112113A. Kurtenko2.0061090
E. Populovskyi10
WSep 20 · 05:50A. Kotiash1.917511101E. Populovskyi1.8011119123LSep 19 · 19:00E. Populovskyi3.758740S. Solomko1.251111113LSep 19 · 17:00B. Zaika1.4011119123E. Populovskyi2.758911101LSep 19 · 15:00A. Martyniuk1.4091111103E. Populovskyi2.75117681WSep 19 · 14:00E. Populovskyi1.731611113S. Baranskyi2.0014990WSep 15 · 11:35A. Kovalenko1.831011881E. Populovskyi1.8312911113LSep 15 · 10:35A. Kurtenko1.91111011123E. Populovskyi1.806127101WSep 15 · 09:05S. Skhabitskiy2.5011128692E. Populovskyi1.503101111113LSep 15 · 07:05A. Martyniuk1.4411119113E. Populovskyi2.63991171LSep 15 · 05:05O. Osadchyi1.401111113E. Populovskyi2.759870
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