TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 20Finished
Andrii Kotiash
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
7115111191012––
Eduard Populovskyi
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:16 and never touched — 56.2% is still 56.2%
Graded at full timeEduard Populovskyi to win
56.2%
56.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAndrii Kotiash above · Eduard Populovskyi below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 10-12
Point 76 set 4, 10-12 — our read held Eduard Populovskyi at 56.2%
76 points played in total.
H2H Andrii Kotiash 19–24 Eduard Populovskyi Andrii Kotiash has won 19 of their 43 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:16What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Populovskyi
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
19-24 in 43
Populovskyi
Correct
gap of 5 in 43, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kotiash 1451 vs Populovskyi 1454
Populovskyi
Correct
both rated, 3 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kotiash 20% vs Populovskyi 40%
Populovskyi
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kotiash 10% vs Populovskyi 40%
Populovskyi
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kotiash -2 · Populovskyi -3
Populovskyi
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Populovskyi) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Populovskyi form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKotiash 1.91 / Populovskyi 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Populovskyi)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13161222
Kotiash1.91
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog39% won 56 of 145
Down 0–1, comes back23% 20 of 87
Down 0–2, comes back13% 7 of 56
Populovskyi1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite56% won 101 of 181
Up 2–0, closes it96% 54 of 56
Up 1–0, closes it85% 74 of 87
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKotiash5wins
AwayPopulovskyi5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKotiash66.7%2 of 3
AwayPopulovskyi57.1%4 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kotiash3Populovskyi7n = 10Populovskyi took 7 of 10
S2Kotiash6Populovskyi4n = 10Kotiash took 6 of 10
S3Kotiash5Populovskyi5n = 10split evenly
S4Kotiash4Populovskyi3n = 7Kotiash took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKotiashPopulovskyiK − PBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match35.736.7−1.0per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKotiashPopulovskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime221 / 470 vs 341 / 69347%49.2%221 / 470 vs 341 / 693Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.036.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PopulovskyiKotiash 1.91/Populovskyi 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Populovskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Populovskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LMay 17 · 05:50A. Kotiash187650E. Populovskyi331111113
WMay 16 · 14:50A. Kotiash3851111113E. Populovskyi29115581
WApr 19 · 07:20A. Kotiash341211113E. Populovskyi2410770
WApr 18 · 14:50A. Kotiash4261211133E. Populovskyi3611104111
LJan 25 · 07:20A. Kotiash34861191E. Populovskyi4211119113
LJan 18 · 08:20A. Kotiash165560E. Populovskyi331111113
LJan 17 · 21:50A. Kotiash34911861E. Populovskyi3511211113
WJan 11 · 07:20A. Kotiash4211118123E. Populovskyi369611101
LJan 10 · 21:20A. Kotiash4911129892E. Populovskyi529101111113
WJan 4 · 07:20A. Kotiash501161111113E. Populovskyi4713118872
A. Kotiash10
LSep 19 · 11:35A. Kotiash2.63511851V. Kryvenko1.4411911113LSep 19 · 09:35Y. Volkov1.2881111113A. Kotiash3.50114221WSep 19 · 08:35A. Kotiash2.2011116113Y. Kovshun1.61961141LSep 19 · 07:35I. Efimenko1.2061112113A. Kotiash4.331161081LSep 19 · 06:05A. Kotiash2.63811731Y. Makovka1.4411911113LSep 12 · 11:05I. Efimenko1.131110811113A. Kotiash5.5041211492LSep 12 · 10:05A. Kotiash1.739720V. Bilobrov2.001111113LSep 12 · 09:05A. Kotiash2.20111791182Y. Kovshun1.61219118113LSep 12 · 07:35A. Kotiash3.406101101Y. Volkov1.3011129113LSep 12 · 05:35A. Kotiash2.5021090A. Troyan1.501112113
E. Populovskyi10
LSep 19 · 19:00E. Populovskyi3.758740S. Solomko1.251111113LSep 19 · 17:00B. Zaika1.4011119123E. Populovskyi2.758911101LSep 19 · 15:00A. Martyniuk1.4091111103E. Populovskyi2.75117681WSep 19 · 14:00E. Populovskyi1.731611113S. Baranskyi2.0014990WSep 15 · 11:35A. Kovalenko1.831011881E. Populovskyi1.8312911113LSep 15 · 10:35A. Kurtenko1.91111011123E. Populovskyi1.806127101WSep 15 · 09:05S. Skhabitskiy2.5011128692E. Populovskyi1.503101111113LSep 15 · 07:05A. Martyniuk1.4411119113E. Populovskyi2.63991171LSep 15 · 05:05O. Osadchyi1.401111113E. Populovskyi2.759870WSep 13 · 12:50A. Kurtenko1.73101090E. Populovskyi2.001212113
Upcoming Matches
A. Kotiash
E. Populovskyi
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