TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13158368
Played Sep 19Finished
Tomas Rein
Home
2.38
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
7111177111191210
Jaroslav Dohnal
Away
1.53
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:38 and never touched — 54.5% is still 54.5%
Graded at full timeJaroslav Dohnal to win
54.5%
54.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingTomas Rein above · Jaroslav Dohnal below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 12-10
Point 96 set 5, 12-10 — our read held Jaroslav Dohnal at 54.5%
96 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Rein 12–25 Jaroslav Dohnal Tomas Rein has won 12 of their 37 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:38What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Dohnal
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-25 in 37
Dohnal
Wrong
gap of 13 in 37, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rein 1414 vs Dohnal 1484
Dohnal
Wrong
both rated, 70 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rein 60% vs Dohnal 20%
Rein
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rein 30% vs Dohnal 30%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Rein +1 · Dohnal -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Dohnal) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dohnal form (20%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRein 2.38 / Dohnal 1.53
Signal prob.37% / 63%
Edge (Dohnal)+2.0pp
TT Cup · #13158368
Rein2.38
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog33% won 90 of 273
Down 0–1, comes back20% 35 of 172
Down 0–2, comes back5% 5 of 93
Dohnal1.53
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite56% won 116 of 208
Up 2–0, closes it92% 59 of 64
Up 1–0, closes it70% 83 of 119
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRein5wins
AwayDohnal5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeReinn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayDohnal37.5%3 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rein2Dohnal8n = 10Dohnal took 8 of 10
S2Rein5Dohnal5n = 10split evenly
S3Rein4Dohnal6n = 10Dohnal took 6 of 10
S4Rein6Dohnal2n = 8Rein took 6 of 8
S5Rein3Dohnal2n = 5Rein took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricReinDohnalR − DBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match37.742.0−4.3per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricReinDohnalBasisWin rate · lifetime386 / 843 vs 390 / 66145.8%59%386 / 843 vs 390 / 661Avg sets wonper match1.92.3per matchAvg pointsper match36.940.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DohnalRein 2.38/Dohnal 1.53
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
62.8%
Dohnal · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Rein won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 8 · 21:48T. Rein205870J. Dohnal331111113
LSep 8 · 18:20T. Rein4598111162J. Dohnal46111167113
WAug 30 · 10:20T. Rein3961111113J. Dohnal30117661
WAug 29 · 14:05T. Rein43331211143J. Dohnal521111108122
LAug 29 · 12:25T. Rein33146491J. Dohnal45121111113
WAug 25 · 17:30T. Rein3741111113J. Dohnal34119771
WAug 25 · 16:50T. Rein50911711123J. Dohnal49118119102
LAug 13 · 18:20T. Rein3711115552J. Dohnal48871111113
WAug 1 · 18:55T. Rein46712511113J. Dohnal46111011862
LJul 16 · 20:50T. Rein2786130J. Dohnal371111153
T. Rein10
LSep 19 · 20:55T. Rein2.759860C. Kratochvil1.401111113WSep 19 · 18:55T. Rein2.40511411113B. Budik1.5111711892LSep 16 · 22:38R. Muller1.2810111011113T. Rein3.5012812362WSep 16 · 21:25J. Cousin1.5741111992T. Rein2.25119411113LSep 16 · 20:25T. Rein2.00713891R. Muller1.73111111113WSep 16 · 18:55C. Kratochvil1.2841060T. Rein3.501112113LSep 16 · 13:59V. Koutnik1.6111115113T. Rein2.20951181LSep 16 · 12:55V. Koutnik1.61118711113T. Rein2.2051111572LSep 16 · 12:25F. Dvorak1.331111113T. Rein3.253560LSep 16 · 11:25T. Rein2.25118851S. Holik1.5761111113
J. Dohnal10
LSep 19 · 19:25C. Kratochvil2.381211153J. Dohnal1.53108140WSep 13 · 17:53J. Cousin2.50331121J. Dohnal1.5011117113LSep 13 · 16:55J. Dohnal1.501110851J. Cousin2.5061211113LSep 13 · 15:55J. Dohnal1.839111121P. Vodal1.8311138113LSep 13 · 14:55J. Dohnal2.20781191T. Hnizdil1.6111117113LSep 12 · 22:30J. Sebl2.25111011113J. Dohnal1.57812961LSep 12 · 20:55M. Boltik2.10111257123J. Dohnal1.678101111102LSep 12 · 20:25J. Sebl2.7561111133J. Dohnal1.401196111WSep 12 · 19:25J. Dohnal1.67101111113D. Zelezny2.10129891WSep 8 · 21:48J. Dohnal1.611111113T. Rein2.205870
Upcoming Matches
T. Rein
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J. Dohnal
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