TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13141617
Played Sep 16Finished
Tomas Rein
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
7111311811911––
Radek Muller
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:41 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeRadek Muller to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingTomas Rein above · Radek Muller below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 81 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Radek Muller at 54.0%
81 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Rein 3–2 Radek Muller Radek Muller has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:41What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Muller
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-2 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rein 1414 vs Muller 1431
Muller
Correct
both rated, 17 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rein 20% vs Muller 40%
Muller
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rein 30% vs Muller 30%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Rein +1 · Muller +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Muller)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Muller form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRein 2.00 / Muller 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Muller)+0.3pp
TT Cup · #13141617
Rein2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog33% won 88 of 265
Down 0–1, comes back21% 35 of 168
Down 0–2, comes back6% 5 of 91
Muller1.73
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite50% won 34 of 68
Up 2–0, closes it86% 19 of 22
Up 1–0, closes it72% 26 of 36
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeRein3wins
AwayMuller2wins
2 of 5 to a deciderRein leads 3–2, and 2 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeReinn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayMuller66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rein2Muller3n = 5Muller took 3 of 5
S2Rein3Muller2n = 5Rein took 3 of 5
S3Rein2Muller3n = 5Muller took 3 of 5
S4Rein1Muller2n = 3Muller took 2 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home120%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home240%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away120%
These 5 meetings
MetricReinMullerR − MBasisWins32+1in 5 meetingsFirst set23−1of 5Avg pointsper match37.039.4−2.4per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricReinMullerBasisWin rate · lifetime389 / 845 vs 166 / 33146%50.2%389 / 845 vs 166 / 331Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.939.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MullerRein 2.00/Muller 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Muller · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Muller won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LSep 16 · 20:25T. Rein37713891R. Muller44111111113
WAug 23 · 21:28T. Rein50911118113R. Muller4411981152
WAug 23 · 18:20T. Rein42114412113R. Muller50911111092
LJul 3 · 19:25T. Rein2347120R. Muller361111143
WJun 5 · 06:55T. Rein331111113R. Muller236980
T. Rein10
WSep 16 · 21:25J. Cousin1.5741111992T. Rein2.25119411113WSep 16 · 18:55C. Kratochvil1.2841060T. Rein3.501112113LSep 16 · 13:59V. Koutnik1.6111115113T. Rein2.20951181LSep 16 · 12:55V. Koutnik1.61118711113T. Rein2.2051111572LSep 16 · 12:25F. Dvorak1.331111113T. Rein3.253560LSep 16 · 11:25T. Rein2.25118851S. Holik1.5761111113LSep 15 · 17:50T. Rein2.40920491D. Zelezny1.50111811113WSep 15 · 16:50A. Jr1.835740T. Rein1.831111113WSep 15 · 15:50T. Rein2.7591311113D. Zelezny1.401111941LSep 15 · 14:20T. Jr1.50117911113T. Rein2.5061111692
R. Muller10
LSep 16 · 20:55C. Kratochvil1.6713111143R. Muller2.1011118121WSep 16 · 19:25R. Muller1.731112113J. Cousin2.0011030WSep 14 · 10:05F. Marat2.104780R. Muller1.651111113LSep 14 · 08:55R. Muller1.9175111152M. Filipek1.80111197113LSep 14 · 07:55R. Muller1.61810111162F. Marat2.20111292113LSep 14 · 06:55R. Muller1.838490A. Kral1.831111113LSep 8 · 10:25R. Jamrich1.8011811173R. Muller1.919118151LSep 8 · 09:25R. Jamrich1.9111118113R. Muller1.80741191WSep 8 · 08:25R. Muller1.611111113P. Chlumsky2.208530LSep 8 · 06:55J. Srnka1.8071111143R. Muller1.911194121
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.