TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13141411
Played Sep 16Finished
Christian Kratochvil
Home
1.67
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
13111111181412––
Radek Muller
Away
2.10
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:44 and never touched — 59.0% is still 59.0%
Graded at full timeChristian Kratochvil to win
59.0%
59.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingChristian Kratochvil above · Radek Muller below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 1-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 14-12
Point 81 set 4, 14-12 — our read held Christian Kratochvil at 59.0%
81 points played in total.
H2H Christian Kratochvil 4–3 Radek Muller Radek Muller has won 3 of their 7 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 16:44What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Kratochvil
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-3 in 7
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kratochvil 1469 vs Muller 1442
Kratochvil
Correct
both rated, 27 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kratochvil 20% vs Muller 60%
Muller
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kratochvil 50% vs Muller 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kratochvil -3 · Muller +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Kratochvil) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Muller form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKratochvil 1.67 / Muller 2.10
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Kratochvil)+1.2pp
TT Cup · #13141411
Kratochvil1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite54% won 64 of 119
Up 2–0, closes it97% 34 of 35
Up 1–0, closes it83% 49 of 59
Muller2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog38% won 13 of 34
Down 0–1, comes back24% 4 of 17
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 8
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeKratochvil4wins
AwayMuller3wins
4 of 7 to a deciderKratochvil leads 4–3, and 4 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKratochvil80%4 of 5
AwayMullern = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kratochvil5Muller2n = 7Kratochvil took 5 of 7
S2Kratochvil5Muller2n = 7Kratochvil took 5 of 7
S3Kratochvil4Muller3n = 7Kratochvil took 4 of 7
S4Kratochvil3Muller3n = 6split evenly
S5Kratochvil1Muller3n = 4Muller took 3 of 4
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home114%
3–1Four sets, home229%
3–2Decider, home114%
2–3Decider, away343%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 7 meetings
MetricKratochvilMullerK − MBasisWins43+1in 7 meetingsFirst set52+3of 7Avg pointsper match40.741.3−0.6per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKratochvilMullerBasisWin rate · lifetime237 / 423 vs 166 / 33056%50.3%237 / 423 vs 166 / 330Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.239.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KratochvilKratochvil 1.67/Muller 2.10
Hit
What we said
57%
Kratochvil · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kratochvil won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LJul 24 · 19:55C. Kratochvil4061211562R. Muller511110811113
WJun 16 · 18:50C. Kratochvil47131247113R. Muller461110111132
WDec 3 · 10:50C. Kratochvil4111127113R. Muller345101181
WDec 3 · 07:50C. Kratochvil331111113R. Muller236890
WDec 1 · 11:00C. Kratochvil3711213113R. Muller346111161
LDec 1 · 08:20C. Kratochvil46611811102R. Muller51119118123
LNov 25 · 24:50C. Kratochvil4111611672R. Muller50811911113
C. Kratochvil10
LSep 16 · 19:55C. Kratochvil1.8010630J. Cousin1.911211113LSep 16 · 18:55C. Kratochvil1.2841060T. Rein3.501112113LSep 12 · 14:30L. Rek1.85121199113C. Kratochvil1.85109111162WSep 12 · 12:55L. Rek1.73117761C. Kratochvil2.0091111113LSep 12 · 12:25V. Koutnik1.401111511113C. Kratochvil2.7513811322WSep 12 · 11:25C. Kratochvil2.3811156113P. Vodal1.539131171WSep 12 · 10:04C. Kratochvil1.281111113T. Rein3.508940WSep 12 · 08:55T. Rein3.40691261C. Kratochvil1.30111110113WSep 12 · 08:25B. Budik1.50812111192C. Kratochvil2.35111444113LSep 12 · 07:25C. Kratochvil2.25610110P. Vodal1.571112133
R. Muller10
WSep 16 · 20:25T. Rein2.00713891R. Muller1.73111111113WSep 16 · 19:25R. Muller1.731112113J. Cousin2.0011030WSep 14 · 10:05F. Marat2.104780R. Muller1.651111113LSep 14 · 08:55R. Muller1.9175111152M. Filipek1.80111197113LSep 14 · 07:55R. Muller1.61810111162F. Marat2.20111292113LSep 14 · 06:55R. Muller1.838490A. Kral1.831111113LSep 8 · 10:25R. Jamrich1.8011811173R. Muller1.919118151LSep 8 · 09:25R. Jamrich1.9111118113R. Muller1.80741191WSep 8 · 08:25R. Muller1.611111113P. Chlumsky2.208530LSep 8 · 06:55J. Srnka1.8071111143R. Muller1.911194121
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.