TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13158797
Played Sep 19Finished
Tomas Rein
Home
2.75
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
911811611––––
Christian Kratochvil
Away
1.40
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:09 and never touched — 74.4% is still 74.4%
Graded at full timeChristian Kratochvil to win
74.4%
74.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingTomas Rein above · Christian Kratochvil below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Point 56 set 3, 6-11 — our read held Christian Kratochvil at 74.4%
56 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Rein 4–25 Christian Kratochvil Tomas Rein has won 4 of their 29 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:09What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Kratochvil
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-25 in 29
Kratochvil
Correct
gap of 21 in 29, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rein 1427 vs Kratochvil 1459
Kratochvil
Correct
both rated, 32 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rein 60% vs Kratochvil 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rein 40% vs Kratochvil 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Rein +2 · Kratochvil +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% — Clear lean (leans Kratochvil) · live re-read · sealed at 74% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kratochvil form (60%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRein 2.75 / Kratochvil 1.40
Signal prob.30% / 70%
Edge (Kratochvil)+3.5pp
TT Cup · #13158797
Rein2.75
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog33% won 90 of 273
Down 0–1, comes back20% 35 of 172
Down 0–2, comes back5% 5 of 93
Kratochvil1.40
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite53% won 61 of 115
Up 2–0, closes it100% 32 of 32
Up 1–0, closes it84% 47 of 56
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRein1wins
AwayKratochvil9wins
1 of 10 to a deciderKratochvil leads 9–1, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeReinn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayKratochvil100%8 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rein2Kratochvil8n = 10Kratochvil took 8 of 10
S2Rein3Kratochvil7n = 10Kratochvil took 7 of 10
S3Rein4Kratochvil6n = 10Kratochvil took 6 of 10
S4Rein1Kratochvil5n = 6Kratochvil took 5 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricReinKratochvilR − KBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match32.038.4−6.4per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricReinKratochvilBasisWin rate · lifetime387 / 844 vs 242 / 43445.9%55.8%387 / 844 vs 242 / 434Avg sets wonper match1.92.2per matchAvg pointsper match36.939.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KratochvilRein 2.75/Kratochvil 1.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
69.8%
Kratochvil · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Kratochvil won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 16 · 18:55T. Rein341112113C. Kratochvil2041060
LSep 12 · 10:04T. Rein218940C. Kratochvil331111113
LSep 12 · 08:55T. Rein33691261C. Kratochvil43111110113
LMay 16 · 17:25T. Rein379111251C. Kratochvil4011414113
LApr 9 · 12:55T. Rein166550C. Kratochvil331111113
LMar 31 · 10:50T. Rein33591181C. Kratochvil3911116113
LNov 10 · 15:20T. Rein3641011111C. Kratochvil4311127133
LNov 10 · 12:10T. Rein31127481C. Kratochvil43101111113
LNov 3 · 12:25T. Rein53911121652C. Kratochvil551151414113
LOct 28 · 23:20T. Rein2696110C. Kratochvil351111133
T. Rein10
WSep 19 · 19:55T. Rein2.63711711123J. Dohnal1.44117119102WSep 19 · 18:55T. Rein2.40511411113B. Budik1.5111711892LSep 16 · 22:38R. Muller1.2810111011113T. Rein3.5012812362WSep 16 · 21:25J. Cousin1.5741111992T. Rein2.25119411113LSep 16 · 20:25T. Rein2.00713891R. Muller1.73111111113WSep 16 · 18:55C. Kratochvil1.2841060T. Rein3.501112113LSep 16 · 13:59V. Koutnik1.6111115113T. Rein2.20951181LSep 16 · 12:55V. Koutnik1.61118711113T. Rein2.2051111572LSep 16 · 12:25F. Dvorak1.331111113T. Rein3.253560LSep 16 · 11:25T. Rein2.25118851S. Holik1.5761111113
C. Kratochvil10
LSep 19 · 20:25B. Budik1.441110811113C. Kratochvil2.4031211882WSep 19 · 19:25C. Kratochvil2.381211153J. Dohnal1.53108140WSep 19 · 18:02J. Cousin1.6531030C. Kratochvil2.101112113LSep 19 · 16:55J. Cousin1.5011119113C. Kratochvil2.50741191LSep 19 · 16:25V. Koutnik1.4411711113C. Kratochvil2.63911951WSep 19 · 15:25C. Kratochvil1.73129118113A. Jr2.00101181192LSep 18 · 21:58C. Kratochvil2.00712120Z. Muhlhauser1.731114143WSep 18 · 20:55Z. Muhlhauser1.73115461C. Kratochvil2.0081111113LSep 18 · 20:25J. Cousin1.50101111113C. Kratochvil2.50127991LSep 16 · 18:55C. Kratochvil1.2841060T. Rein3.501112113
Upcoming Matches
T. Rein
Nothing scheduled
C. Kratochvil
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