TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13158935
Played Sep 19Finished
Christian Kratochvil
Home
2.38
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
12101181514––––
Jaroslav Dohnal
Away
1.53
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:16 and never touched — 54.9% is still 54.9%
Graded at full timeJaroslav Dohnal to win
54.9%
54.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingChristian Kratochvil above · Jaroslav Dohnal below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 15-14
Point 70 set 3, 15-14 — our read held Jaroslav Dohnal at 54.9%
70 points played in total.
H2H Christian Kratochvil 9–11 Jaroslav Dohnal Christian Kratochvil has won 9 of their 20 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:16What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Dohnal
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-11 in 20
Dohnal
Wrong
gap of 2 in 20, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kratochvil 1443 vs Dohnal 1500
Dohnal
Wrong
both rated, 57 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kratochvil 40% vs Dohnal 20%
Kratochvil
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kratochvil 40% vs Dohnal 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kratochvil +1 · Dohnal +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Clear lean (leans Dohnal) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dohnal form (20%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKratochvil 2.38 / Dohnal 1.53
Signal prob.38% / 62%
Edge (Dohnal)+1.2pp
TT Cup · #13158935
Kratochvil2.38
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog48% won 20 of 42
Down 0–1, comes back32% 7 of 22
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 14
Dohnal1.53
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 6 days ago (Sep 13)
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite56% won 116 of 208
Up 2–0, closes it92% 59 of 64
Up 1–0, closes it70% 83 of 119
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKratochvil4wins
AwayDohnal6wins
6 of 10 to a deciderDohnal leads 6–4, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKratochvil50%2 of 4
AwayDohnal66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kratochvil4Dohnal6n = 10Dohnal took 6 of 10
S2Kratochvil4Dohnal6n = 10Dohnal took 6 of 10
S3Kratochvil7Dohnal3n = 10Kratochvil took 7 of 10
S4Kratochvil5Dohnal5n = 10split evenly
S5Kratochvil2Dohnal4n = 6Dohnal took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKratochvilDohnalK − DBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match43.845.9−2.1per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKratochvilDohnalBasisWin rate · lifetime241 / 433 vs 404 / 68255.7%59.2%241 / 433 vs 404 / 682Avg sets wonper match2.22.3per matchAvg pointsper match39.140.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DohnalKratochvil 2.38/Dohnal 1.53
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
62%
Dohnal · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Kratochvil won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 29 · 21:25C. Kratochvil501011117113J. Dohnal5012991192
LJul 24 · 18:55C. Kratochvil51910131182J. Dohnal531112118113
LJul 18 · 09:25C. Kratochvil4679141152J. Dohnal511111126113
LJun 21 · 17:20C. Kratochvil45113111192J. Dohnal50131196113
WJun 21 · 16:20C. Kratochvil4291111113J. Dohnal36118891
WMay 23 · 16:25C. Kratochvil4111811113J. Dohnal35911871
WMay 16 · 14:00C. Kratochvil46121166113J. Dohnal49108111192
LMay 16 · 13:25C. Kratochvil3910811101J. Dohnal4212117123
LApr 25 · 21:25C. Kratochvil31113891J. Dohnal4291111113
LDec 28 · 08:50C. Kratochvil47111187102J. Dohnal51891111123
C. Kratochvil10
WSep 19 · 20:55T. Rein2.759860C. Kratochvil1.401111113LSep 19 · 20:25B. Budik1.441110811113C. Kratochvil2.4031211882WSep 19 · 18:02J. Cousin1.6531030C. Kratochvil2.101112113LSep 19 · 16:55J. Cousin1.5011119113C. Kratochvil2.50741191LSep 19 · 16:25V. Koutnik1.4411711113C. Kratochvil2.63911951WSep 19 · 15:25C. Kratochvil1.73129118113A. Jr2.00101181192LSep 18 · 21:58C. Kratochvil2.00712120Z. Muhlhauser1.731114143WSep 18 · 20:55Z. Muhlhauser1.73115461C. Kratochvil2.0081111113LSep 18 · 20:25J. Cousin1.50101111113C. Kratochvil2.50127991LSep 18 · 19:25C. Kratochvil2.25101080M. Boltik1.571212113
J. Dohnal10
LSep 19 · 19:55T. Rein2.38711711123J. Dohnal1.53117119102WSep 13 · 17:53J. Cousin2.50331121J. Dohnal1.5011117113LSep 13 · 16:55J. Dohnal1.501110851J. Cousin2.5061211113LSep 13 · 15:55J. Dohnal1.839111121P. Vodal1.8311138113LSep 13 · 14:55J. Dohnal2.20781191T. Hnizdil1.6111117113LSep 12 · 22:30J. Sebl2.25111011113J. Dohnal1.57812961LSep 12 · 20:55M. Boltik2.10111257123J. Dohnal1.678101111102LSep 12 · 20:25J. Sebl2.7561111133J. Dohnal1.401196111WSep 12 · 19:25J. Dohnal1.67101111113D. Zelezny2.10129891WSep 8 · 21:48J. Dohnal1.611111113T. Rein2.205870
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