TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13155648
Played Sep 19Finished
Yaroslav Makovka
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
116811119118––
Vitalii Kryvenko
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:34 and never touched — 58.9% is still 58.9%
Graded at full timeVitalii Kryvenko to win
58.9%
58.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingYaroslav Makovka above · Vitalii Kryvenko below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 75 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Vitalii Kryvenko at 58.9%
75 points played in total.
H2H Yaroslav Makovka 3–1 Vitalii Kryvenko Vitalii Kryvenko has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:34What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Kryvenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-1 in 4
Makovka
Correct
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Makovka 1527 vs Kryvenko 1614
Kryvenko
Wrong
both rated, 86 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Makovka 80% vs Kryvenko 40%
Makovka
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Makovka 50% vs Kryvenko 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Makovka +4 · Kryvenko +1
Makovka
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kryvenko) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kryvenko form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMakovka 2.00 / Kryvenko 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Kryvenko)+0.3pp
Setka Cup · #13155648
Makovka2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog34% won 44 of 130
Down 0–1, comes back20% 17 of 86
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 55
Kryvenko1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite63% won 31 of 49
Up 2–0, closes it94% 15 of 16
Up 1–0, closes it87% 20 of 23
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeMakovka3wins
AwayKryvenko1wins
1 of 4 to a deciderMakovka leads 3–1, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMakovka100%3 of 3
AwayKryvenkon = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Makovka3Kryvenko1n = 4Makovka took 3 of 4
S2Makovka2Kryvenko2n = 4split evenly
S3Makovka3Kryvenko1n = 4Makovka took 3 of 4
S4Makovka1Kryvenko2n = 3Kryvenko took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home125%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricMakovkaKryvenkoM − KBasisWins31+2in 4 meetingsFirst set31+2of 4Avg pointsper match36.535.5+1.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMakovkaKryvenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime149 / 375 vs 54 / 9339.7%58.1%149 / 375 vs 54 / 93Avg sets wonper match1.72.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.137.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KryvenkoMakovka 2.00/Kryvenko 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Kryvenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Makovka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WSep 19 · 07:05Y. Makovka4111811113V. Kryvenko34611981
WAug 22 · 07:35Y. Makovka501111107113V. Kryvenko4576121192
WAug 15 · 07:05Y. Makovka331111113V. Kryvenko238690
LMar 21 · 11:35Y. Makovka22341141V. Kryvenko4011117113
Y. Makovka10
WSep 19 · 06:05A. Kotiash2.63811731Y. Makovka1.4411911113WSep 16 · 10:35I. Fashchevskyi2.2071151242Y. Makovka1.611121110113WSep 16 · 09:35Y. Makovka2.751111163I. Pytsko1.4059140WSep 16 · 08:35Y. Makovka2.5011811113O. Storozhenko1.50911751LSep 16 · 07:05Y. Makovka2.509980Y. Tebenko1.501111113LSep 16 · 05:05Y. Makovka2.751181091D. Maltsev1.4041112113LSep 15 · 18:05Y. Makovka2.004660D. Maltsev1.731111113LSep 15 · 16:35Y. Makovka2.106950Y. Tebenko1.671111113WSep 15 · 15:05Y. Makovka1.60571111113I. Fashchevskyi2.2011117472LSep 15 · 13:35Y. Makovka2.2541131162O. Storozhenko1.57114119113
V. Kryvenko10
WSep 19 · 05:05Y. Volkov1.83671171V. Kryvenko1.8311114113LAug 22 · 11:05I. Efimenko1.671111113V. Kryvenko2.107890WAug 22 · 10:05V. Kryvenko1.5011811113A. Kotiash2.50611781LAug 22 · 09:05V. Kryvenko1.83101251152Y. Volkov1.831210119113LAug 22 · 07:35V. Kryvenko1.5376121192Y. Makovka2.381111107113WAug 22 · 05:35V. Kryvenko1.4091112113A. Troyan2.751181041LAug 15 · 11:35S. Hryhorenko2.6311711113V. Kryvenko1.44911681WAug 15 · 10:35A. Troyan3.0091141132V. Kryvenko1.36118116113WAug 15 · 09:05Y. Kovshun2.0029130V. Kryvenko1.731111152LAug 15 · 07:05Y. Makovka2.631111113V. Kryvenko1.448690
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