TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13155538
Played Sep 19Finished
Mykyta Smyrnov
Home
2.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
91111810121171012
Artem Chepurnyi
Away
1.62
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:08 and never touched — 68.0% is still 68.0%
Graded at full timeArtem Chepurnyi to win
68.0%
68.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMykyta Smyrnov above · Artem Chepurnyi below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 10-12
Point 101 set 5, 10-12 — our read held Artem Chepurnyi at 68.0%
101 points played in total.
H2H Mykyta Smyrnov 0–1 Artem Chepurnyi Mykyta Smyrnov has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:08What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Chepurnyi
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-1 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Smyrnov 1565 vs Chepurnyi 1781
Chepurnyi
Correct
both rated, 216 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Smyrnov 40% vs Chepurnyi 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Smyrnov 30% vs Chepurnyi 60%
Chepurnyi
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Smyrnov +1 · Chepurnyi -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Chepurnyi) · live re-read · sealed at 68% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chepurnyi form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSmyrnov 2.20 / Chepurnyi 1.61
Signal prob.40% / 61%
Edge (Chepurnyi)+2.8pp
Setka Cup · #13155538
Smyrnov2.20
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog40% won 95 of 235
Down 0–1, comes back20% 24 of 122
Down 0–2, comes back4% 3 of 75
Chepurnyi1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite66% won 160 of 243
Up 2–0, closes it93% 80 of 86
Up 1–0, closes it82% 125 of 152
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeSmyrnov0wins
AwayChepurnyi1wins
1 of 1 to a deciderChepurnyi leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricSmyrnovChepurnyiS − CBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match51.050.0+1.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSmyrnovChepurnyiBasisWin rate · lifetime402 / 820 vs 550 / 93049%59.1%402 / 820 vs 550 / 930Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.537.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChepurnyiSmyrnov 2.20/Chepurnyi 1.61
Hit
What we said
60.5%
Chepurnyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Chepurnyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LSep 19 · 23:25M. Smyrnov519111011102A. Chepurnyi50118127123
M. Smyrnov10
LSep 20 · 24:25O. Dukhovenko1.501113113M. Smyrnov2.5081170WSep 19 · 22:25O. Mishchenko2.25771151M. Smyrnov1.5711116113LSep 12 · 18:35A. Shypilov2.001112113M. Smyrnov1.7371050LSep 12 · 17:35S. Kalenyk2.201111113M. Smyrnov1.619550WSep 12 · 16:05O. Mitla1.8311101481M. Smyrnov1.8351216113LSep 12 · 14:05O. Napirko1.83111011113M. Smyrnov1.83312751LSep 12 · 12:05V. Boyko1.671071111113M. Smyrnov2.1012117642WSep 11 · 19:05Y. Kravets1.807890M. Smyrnov1.911111113LSep 11 · 17:35M. Smyrnov1.9111511782I. Romaniak1.80911511113LSep 11 · 15:35R. Haiseniuk1.7381111113M. Smyrnov2.00119991
A. Chepurnyi10
LSep 19 · 21:25O. Dukhovenko1.4411811113A. Chepurnyi2.63711391LSep 18 · 19:25O. Dukhovenko1.531111113A. Chepurnyi2.389770WSep 18 · 18:25A. Chepurnyi2.20119138113Y. Kryvorotko1.61911111192WSep 18 · 17:25A. Chepurnyi1.571111113P. Plakushchyi2.254380LSep 18 · 15:55A. Chepurnyi1.83811111172O. Gavryshko1.83118138113WSep 18 · 13:55A. Chepurnyi1.50111466113O. Mishchenko2.50912111172WSep 14 · 04:25A. Chepurnyi1.4481111113I. Demchenko2.63119661WSep 14 · 02:25O. Mishchenko2.631181581A. Chepurnyi1.44131113113WSep 14 · 24:25Y. Kryvorotko1.57711131172A. Chepurnyi2.251113114113LSep 13 · 23:25A. Chepurnyi1.6112560P. Plakushchyi2.201411113
Upcoming Matches
M. Smyrnov
A. Chepurnyi
Sep 20 · 01:25A. Chepurnyi2.20Y. Kryvorotko1.61—Sep 20 · 02:55A. Chepurnyi1.83O. Gavryshko1.83—Sep 20 · 03:55A. Chepurnyi1.44O. Mishchenko2.63—Sep 20 · 22:25A. Chepurnyi1.61P. Plakushchyi2.20—Sep 20 · 23:25A. Chepurnyi2.50O. Dukhovenko1.50—Sep 21 · 24:25A. Chepurnyi1.53O. Mishchenko2.38—Sep 21 · 02:25A. Chepurnyi1.83O. Gavryshko1.83—
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.