TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13122210
Played Sep 14Finished
Artem Chepurnyi
Home
1.44
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
811119116116––
Ivan Demchenko
Away
2.63
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:03 and never touched — 66.8% is still 66.8%
Graded at full timeArtem Chepurnyi to win
66.8%
66.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingArtem Chepurnyi above · Ivan Demchenko below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 73 set 4, 11-6 — our read held Artem Chepurnyi at 66.8%
73 points played in total.
H2H Artem Chepurnyi 11–2 Ivan Demchenko Ivan Demchenko has won 2 of their 13 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:03What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Chepurnyi
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-2 in 13
Chepurnyi
Correct
gap of 9 in 13, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chepurnyi 1799 vs Demchenko 1639
Chepurnyi
Correct
both rated, 161 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chepurnyi 60% vs Demchenko 0%
Chepurnyi
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chepurnyi 70% vs Demchenko 30%
Chepurnyi
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Chepurnyi +2 · Demchenko -5
Demchenko
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 71% — Strong (leans Chepurnyi) · live re-read · sealed at 67% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Demchenko form (0%) is below what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChepurnyi 1.44 / Demchenko 2.63
Signal prob.71% / 29%
Edge (Chepurnyi)+6.3pp
Setka Cup · #13122210
Chepurnyi1.44
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite67% won 167 of 251
Up 2–0, closes it93% 82 of 88
Up 1–0, closes it83% 129 of 156
Demchenko2.63
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog21% won 18 of 84
Down 0–1, comes back9% 5 of 59
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 37
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeChepurnyi9wins
AwayDemchenko1wins
3 of 10 to a deciderChepurnyi leads 9–1, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChepurnyi100%5 of 5
AwayDemchenko20%1 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chepurnyi5Demchenko5n = 10split evenly
S2Chepurnyi7Demchenko3n = 10Chepurnyi took 7 of 10
S3Chepurnyi8Demchenko2n = 10Chepurnyi took 8 of 10
S4Chepurnyi7Demchenko1n = 8Chepurnyi took 7 of 8
S5Chepurnyi2Demchenko1n = 3Chepurnyi took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricChepurnyiDemchenkoC − DBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match42.736.0+6.7per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChepurnyiDemchenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime564 / 948 vs 68 / 15559.5%43.9%564 / 948 vs 68 / 155Avg sets wonper match2.21.8per matchAvg pointsper match37.635.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChepurnyiChepurnyi 1.44/Demchenko 2.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
70.8%
Chepurnyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Chepurnyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 11 · 18:25A. Chepurnyi4684111492I. Demchenko531111812113
WSep 6 · 22:25A. Chepurnyi4471511113I. Demchenko361113751
WSep 6 · 24:55A. Chepurnyi521051114123I. Demchenko541211912102
WAug 21 · 17:55A. Chepurnyi52129128113I. Demchenko491011101172
WAug 17 · 02:55A. Chepurnyi3851111113I. Demchenko26113931
WAug 16 · 24:25A. Chepurnyi351212113I. Demchenko26101060
WAug 7 · 18:25A. Chepurnyi331111113I. Demchenko187740
WAug 2 · 22:25A. Chepurnyi4211119113I. Demchenko31871151
WAug 2 · 02:55A. Chepurnyi4181111113I. Demchenko34119771
WJun 29 · 04:25A. Chepurnyi4411148113I. Demchenko336121141
A. Chepurnyi10
WSep 14 · 02:25O. Mishchenko2.631181581A. Chepurnyi1.44131113113WSep 14 · 24:25Y. Kryvorotko1.57711131172A. Chepurnyi2.251113114113LSep 13 · 23:25A. Chepurnyi1.6112560P. Plakushchyi2.201411113LSep 13 · 22:25O. Dukhovenko1.401111123A. Chepurnyi2.7544100WSep 13 · 03:55O. Mishchenko2.636720A. Chepurnyi1.441111113WSep 13 · 02:55O. Gavryshko1.83119781A. Chepurnyi1.8351111113WSep 13 · 01:25P. Plakushchyi2.257370A. Chepurnyi1.571111113LSep 12 · 23:25Y. Kryvorotko1.571111113A. Chepurnyi2.257960WSep 12 · 21:25O. Dukhovenko1.5391441182A. Chepurnyi2.381112115113WSep 11 · 20:25A. Chepurnyi1.57119711113P. Plakushchyi2.2571111662
I. Demchenko10
LSep 14 · 02:55I. Demchenko1.577760P. Plakushchyi2.251111113LSep 14 · 24:55O. Dukhovenko1.281111113I. Demchenko3.505560LSep 13 · 22:55Y. Kryvorotko1.4051111123I. Demchenko2.751194101LSep 13 · 21:55O. Mishchenko2.501111113I. Demchenko1.507950LSep 11 · 19:25O. Dukhovenko1.28111183I. Demchenko3.503540WSep 11 · 18:25I. Demchenko2.631111812113A. Chepurnyi1.4484111492WSep 11 · 17:25I. Demchenko1.5711134113O. Mishchenko2.258111171LSep 11 · 15:55I. Demchenko3.001390O. Gavryshko1.361111113LSep 11 · 13:55I. Demchenko1.44111191192P. Plakushchyi2.63361113113WSep 7 · 03:55I. Demchenko3.7511611113O. Dukhovenko1.25911921
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