Oleksandr Mishchenko vs Mykyta Smyrnov 1-3

TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup

Setka CupMatch #13155692

Played Sep 19Finished

Oleksandr Mishchenko

Home

2.25

At publish

Lost last 3

Form at publish

4–6Last 10Lost last 3

Final

1 – 3

Set by set

711711116511––

Mykyta Smyrnov

Away

1.57

At publish

Lost last 2

Form at publish

3–7Last 10Lost last 2

The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:27 and never touched — 58.6% is still 58.6%

Graded at full time

Oleksandr Mishchenko to win

58.6%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Wrong

not sent

How it is goingOleksandr Mishchenko above · Mykyta Smyrnov below

Set 1 · 7-11

Set 2 · 7-11

Set 3 · 11-6

Set 4 · 5-11

Point 69 set 4, 5-11 — our read held Oleksandr Mishchenko at 58.6%

69 points played in total.

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 19:27

What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.57 (59%)

Smyrnov

Correct

no bar to clear — a priced side always votes

H2H

No meetings

—

No value

they have never met

Rating (G2)

Mishchenko 1560 vs Smyrnov 1559

Mishchenko

Wrong

both rated, 2 points apart — no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Mishchenko 20% vs Smyrnov 20%

—

Too close

0pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Mishchenko 40% vs Smyrnov 30%

—

Too close

10pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Streak

Mishchenko -3 · Smyrnov -2

Mishchenko

Wrong

one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Smyrnov) · live re-read · sealed at 41% before the first serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Smyrnov form (20%) is below what odds imply (64%)

Market vs Signals

Market oddsMishchenko 2.25 / Smyrnov 1.57

Signal prob.41% / 59%

Edge (Smyrnov)+0.0pp

Setka Cup · #13155692

Mishchenko2.25

40%won 4 of 10 · last 10

Last match: 1 day ago (Sep 18)

Lost last 3

oldest → newest

50%takes the first set · 5 of 10

As underdog35% won 86 of 243

Down 0–1, comes back12% 17 of 140

Down 0–2, comes back4% 3 of 76

Smyrnov1.57

30%won 3 of 10 · last 10

Last match: 7 days ago (Sep 12) · back after a break

Lost last 2

oldest → newest

60%takes the first set · 6 of 10

As favourite61% won 115 of 189

Up 2–0, closes it91% 50 of 55

Up 1–0, closes it76% 81 of 107

Head to head

H2H window

First meeting

These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands — it is the only comparison available.

Career, not this matchup

MetricMishchenkoSmyrnovBasisWin rate · lifetime497 / 1063 vs 402 / 82046.8%49%497 / 1063 vs 402 / 820Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.737.5per match

Deep Dive by Market

Each market builds on the overview above

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction

Match Winner

Smyrnov

Mishchenko 2.25/Smyrnov 1.57

Read onlywould have hit

What we said

58.9%

Smyrnov · sealed before the serve

What happened

1–3

Smyrnov won

Total sets · Score

These two have never met.

The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together — one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.

Recent Results

O. Mishchenko10