TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13137419
Played Sep 16Finished
Oleksandr V Kovalchuk
Home
2.25
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
115811711611––
Oleksandr Mishchenko
Away
1.57
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:47 and never touched — 62.4% is still 62.4%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Mishchenko to win
62.4%
62.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandr V Kovalchuk above · Oleksandr Mishchenko below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 70 set 4, 6-11 — our read held Oleksandr Mishchenko at 62.4%
70 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr V Kovalchuk 72–99 Oleksandr Mishchenko Oleksandr V Kovalchuk has won 72 of their 171 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:47What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Mishchenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
72-99 in 171
Mishchenko
Correct
gap of 27 in 171, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kovalchuk 1556 vs Mishchenko 1575
Mishchenko
Correct
both rated, 20 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kovalchuk 60% vs Mishchenko 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kovalchuk 70% vs Mishchenko 50%
Kovalchuk
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kovalchuk +2 · Mishchenko +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Mishchenko) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kovalchuk form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKovalchuk 2.25 / Mishchenko 1.57
Signal prob.40% / 60%
Edge (Mishchenko)+0.8pp
Setka Cup · #13137419
Kovalchuk2.25
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog35% won 78 of 223
Down 0–1, comes back18% 23 of 126
Down 0–2, comes back5% 4 of 80
Mishchenko1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite59% won 117 of 199
Up 2–0, closes it89% 78 of 88
Up 1–0, closes it84% 100 of 119
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKovalchuk7wins
AwayMishchenko3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderKovalchuk leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKovalchuk83.3%5 of 6
AwayMishchenko50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kovalchuk6Mishchenko4n = 10Kovalchuk took 6 of 10
S2Kovalchuk5Mishchenko5n = 10split evenly
S3Kovalchuk6Mishchenko4n = 10Kovalchuk took 6 of 10
S4Kovalchuk4Mishchenko3n = 7Kovalchuk took 4 of 7
S5Kovalchuk3Mishchenko1n = 4Kovalchuk took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKovalchukMishchenkoK − MBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match39.336.0+3.3per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKovalchukMishchenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime333 / 787 vs 499 / 106542.3%46.9%333 / 787 vs 499 / 1065Avg sets wonper match1.81.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.836.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MishchenkoKovalchuk 2.25/Mishchenko 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59.7%
Mishchenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Mishchenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 16 · 02:53O. Kovalchuk331111113O. Mishchenko196760
LSep 16 · 24:55O. Kovalchuk3012990O. Mishchenko361411113
WSep 10 · 24:55O. Kovalchuk4211911113O. Mishchenko24511531
WSep 3 · 15:25O. Kovalchuk46811511113O. Mishchenko4611911962
WSep 2 · 23:25O. Kovalchuk3911512113O. Mishchenko314111061
WAug 26 · 20:25O. Kovalchuk361312113O. Mishchenko28111070
LAug 26 · 02:55O. Kovalchuk4491111492O. Mishchenko49117911113
WAug 20 · 15:25O. Kovalchuk47111177113O. Mishchenko4176111162
WAug 19 · 01:55O. Kovalchuk49791111113O. Mishchenko4511118872
LAug 13 · 20:25O. Kovalchuk27116551O. Mishchenko4181111113
O. Kovalchuk10
WSep 17 · 03:55O. Kovalchuk1.731110114113V. Panasenko2.0041251132WSep 17 · 02:58O. Mishchenko1.67510100O. Kovalchuk2.101112123WSep 17 · 24:55O. Kovalchuk1.83111156113E. Rubtsov1.8393111142WSep 17 · 24:55O. Kovalchuk2.3811611113P. Plakushchyi1.53911761WSep 16 · 03:55O. Kovalchuk1.8011118153E. Rubtsov1.919611131WSep 16 · 02:53O. Mishchenko1.676760O. Kovalchuk2.101111113LSep 16 · 01:55P. Plakushchyi2.501113113O. Kovalchuk1.5031150LSep 16 · 24:55O. Kovalchuk2.3812990O. Mishchenko1.531411113WSep 16 · 24:55O. Kovalchuk1.911112113V. Panasenko1.8071060LSep 10 · 03:55O. Kovalchuk2.508680P. Plakushchyi1.501111113
O. Mishchenko10
WSep 17 · 04:25O. Mishchenko1.361111113E. Rubtsov3.005870LSep 17 · 02:58O. Mishchenko1.67510100O. Kovalchuk2.101112123WSep 16 · 23:25O. Mishchenko1.911171411113V. Panasenko1.8091116962LSep 16 · 22:55O. Mishchenko2.00811101192P. Plakushchyi1.73114127113WSep 16 · 02:55O. Mishchenko1.3311119113E. Rubtsov3.25551161LSep 16 · 02:53O. Mishchenko1.676760O. Kovalchuk2.101111113WSep 16 · 24:55O. Kovalchuk2.3812990O. Mishchenko1.531411113WSep 15 · 22:55P. Plakushchyi1.67881181O. Mishchenko2.1011116113LSep 15 · 21:55V. Panasenko1.831181111113O. Mishchenko1.8391161382LSep 14 · 03:25Y. Kryvorotko1.2291111113O. Mishchenko4.00118271
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