TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13137374
Played Sep 17Finished
Oleksandr V Kovalchuk
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1141012115411113
Volodymyr Panasenko
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:36 and never touched — 54.3% is still 54.3%
Graded at full timeVolodymyr Panasenko to win
54.3%
54.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOleksandr V Kovalchuk above · Volodymyr Panasenko below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 4-11
Set 5 · 11-3
Point 82 set 5, 11-3 — our read held Volodymyr Panasenko at 54.3%
82 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr V Kovalchuk 2–1 Volodymyr Panasenko Volodymyr Panasenko has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:36What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Kovalchuk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-1 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kovalchuk 1517 vs Panasenko 1529
Panasenko
Wrong
both rated, 12 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kovalchuk 60% vs Panasenko 20%
Kovalchuk
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kovalchuk 70% vs Panasenko 10%
Kovalchuk
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kovalchuk +2 · Panasenko -4
Panasenko
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kovalchuk) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Panasenko form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKovalchuk 1.73 / Panasenko 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kovalchuk)+0.3pp
Setka Cup · #13137374
Kovalchuk1.73
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite47% won 51 of 108
Up 2–0, closes it87% 26 of 30
Up 1–0, closes it69% 35 of 51
Panasenko2.00
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As underdog
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeKovalchuk2wins
AwayPanasenko1wins
1 of 3 to a deciderKovalchuk leads 2–1, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKovalchuk66.7%2 of 3
AwayPanasenkon = 0, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kovalchuk3Panasenko0n = 3Kovalchuk took 3 of 3
S2Kovalchuk2Panasenko1n = 3Kovalchuk took 2 of 3
S3Kovalchuk2Panasenko1n = 3Kovalchuk took 2 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home133%
3–1Four sets, home133%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away133%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricKovalchukPanasenkoK − PBasisWins21+1in 3 meetingsFirst set30+3of 3Avg pointsper match37.331.7+5.6per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKovalchukPanasenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime331 / 785 vs 31 / 6042.2%51.7%331 / 785 vs 31 / 60Avg sets wonper match1.82.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.839.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KovalchukKovalchuk 1.73/Panasenko 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Kovalchuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kovalchuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WSep 16 · 24:55O. Kovalchuk341112113V. Panasenko2371060
WSep 10 · 01:55O. Kovalchuk4011711113V. Panasenko25411551
LSep 8 · 21:55O. Kovalchuk3811118532V. Panasenko47951111113
O. Kovalchuk10
WSep 17 · 24:55O. Kovalchuk1.83111156113E. Rubtsov1.8393111142WSep 16 · 03:55O. Kovalchuk1.8011118153E. Rubtsov1.919611131WSep 16 · 02:53O. Mishchenko1.676760O. Kovalchuk2.101111113LSep 16 · 01:55P. Plakushchyi2.501113113O. Kovalchuk1.5031150WSep 16 · 24:55O. Kovalchuk1.911112113V. Panasenko1.8071060LSep 16 · 24:55O. Kovalchuk2.3812990O. Mishchenko1.531411113LSep 10 · 03:55O. Kovalchuk2.508680P. Plakushchyi1.501111113WSep 10 · 01:55V. Panasenko1.57411551O. Kovalchuk2.2511711113WSep 10 · 24:55O. Kovalchuk2.2011911113O. Mishchenko1.61511531WSep 9 · 23:55V. Kovalenko1.83711461O. Kovalchuk1.8311611113
V. Panasenko10
LSep 17 · 01:25P. Plakushchyi1.53111174113V. Panasenko2.3886111192LSep 16 · 23:25O. Mishchenko1.911171411113V. Panasenko1.8091116962LSep 16 · 03:25P. Plakushchyi1.7311116113V. Panasenko2.00691161LSep 16 · 01:25V. Panasenko1.67811511102E. Rubtsov2.10117112123LSep 16 · 24:55O. Kovalchuk1.911112113V. Panasenko1.8071060WSep 15 · 21:55V. Panasenko1.831181111113O. Mishchenko1.8391161382LSep 10 · 03:25V. Panasenko1.838980V. Kovalenko1.831111113LSep 10 · 01:55V. Panasenko1.57411551O. Kovalchuk2.2511711113LSep 10 · 24:25V. Panasenko1.4451190E. Rubtsov2.631113113LSep 9 · 22:55V. Panasenko1.737127121O. Mishchenko2.00111011143
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