TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13140690
Played Sep 17Finished
Oleksandr V Kovalchuk
Home
2.38
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
119611117116––
Pavel Plakushchyi
Away
1.53
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:06 and never touched — 64.8% is still 64.8%
Graded at full timePavel Plakushchyi to win
64.8%
64.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOleksandr V Kovalchuk above · Pavel Plakushchyi below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 72 set 4, 11-6 — our read held Pavel Plakushchyi at 64.8%
72 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr V Kovalchuk 35–71 Pavel Plakushchyi Oleksandr V Kovalchuk has won 35 of their 106 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:06What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Plakushchyi
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
35-71 in 106
Plakushchyi
Wrong
gap of 36 in 106, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kovalchuk 1538 vs Plakushchyi 1695
Plakushchyi
Wrong
both rated, 157 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kovalchuk 60% vs Plakushchyi 80%
Plakushchyi
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kovalchuk 70% vs Plakushchyi 70%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kovalchuk +2 · Plakushchyi +4
Plakushchyi
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Plakushchyi)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Plakushchyi form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKovalchuk 2.38 / Plakushchyi 1.53
Signal prob.35% / 65%
Edge (Plakushchyi)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13140690
Kovalchuk2.38
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog35% won 78 of 223
Down 0–1, comes back18% 23 of 126
Down 0–2, comes back5% 4 of 80
Plakushchyi1.53
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite57% won 50 of 88
Up 2–0, closes it100% 19 of 19
Up 1–0, closes it86% 36 of 42
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKovalchuk2wins
AwayPlakushchyi8wins
2 of 10 to a deciderPlakushchyi leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKovalchuk20%1 of 5
AwayPlakushchyi80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kovalchuk5Plakushchyi5n = 10split evenly
S2Kovalchuk3Plakushchyi7n = 10Plakushchyi took 7 of 10
S3Kovalchuk1Plakushchyi9n = 10Plakushchyi took 9 of 10
S4Kovalchuk2Plakushchyi4n = 6Plakushchyi took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricKovalchukPlakushchyiK − PBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match30.837.9−7.1per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKovalchukPlakushchyiBasisWin rate · lifetime332 / 786 vs 313 / 69942.2%44.8%332 / 786 vs 313 / 699Avg sets wonper match1.81.8per matchAvg pointsper match36.835.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PlakushchyiKovalchuk 2.38/Plakushchyi 1.53
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
64.8%
Plakushchyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kovalchuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 16 · 01:55O. Kovalchuk1931150P. Plakushchyi351113113
LSep 10 · 03:55O. Kovalchuk228680P. Plakushchyi331111113
WSep 9 · 24:55O. Kovalchuk331111113P. Plakushchyi174760
LSep 3 · 14:25O. Kovalchuk34118781P. Plakushchyi3961111113
LSep 3 · 03:55O. Kovalchuk4811981372P. Plakushchyi539111111113
LAug 26 · 13:55O. Kovalchuk182880P. Plakushchyi331111113
LAug 26 · 01:25O. Kovalchuk321013181P. Plakushchyi45121111113
LAug 24 · 24:55O. Kovalchuk24116341P. Plakushchyi3961111113
LAug 20 · 19:55O. Kovalchuk32119661P. Plakushchyi4181111113
WAug 18 · 21:25O. Kovalchuk46611711113P. Plakushchyi4411711782
O. Kovalchuk10
WSep 17 · 03:55O. Kovalchuk1.731110114113V. Panasenko2.0041251132WSep 17 · 24:55O. Kovalchuk1.83111156113E. Rubtsov1.8393111142WSep 16 · 03:55O. Kovalchuk1.8011118153E. Rubtsov1.919611131WSep 16 · 02:53O. Mishchenko1.676760O. Kovalchuk2.101111113LSep 16 · 01:55P. Plakushchyi2.501113113O. Kovalchuk1.5031150WSep 16 · 24:55O. Kovalchuk1.911112113V. Panasenko1.8071060LSep 16 · 24:55O. Kovalchuk2.3812990O. Mishchenko1.531411113LSep 10 · 03:55O. Kovalchuk2.508680P. Plakushchyi1.501111113WSep 10 · 01:55V. Panasenko1.57411551O. Kovalchuk2.2511711113WSep 10 · 24:55O. Kovalchuk2.2011911113O. Mishchenko1.61511531
P. Plakushchyi10
WSep 17 · 01:25P. Plakushchyi1.53111174113V. Panasenko2.3886111192WSep 16 · 22:55O. Mishchenko2.00811101192P. Plakushchyi1.73114127113WSep 16 · 03:25P. Plakushchyi1.7311116113V. Panasenko2.00691161WSep 16 · 02:29E. Rubtsov2.55511781P. Plakushchyi1.4511911113WSep 16 · 01:55P. Plakushchyi2.501113113O. Kovalchuk1.5031150LSep 15 · 22:55P. Plakushchyi1.67881181O. Mishchenko2.1011116113LSep 14 · 03:55O. Dukhovenko1.101111113P. Plakushchyi6.507950WSep 14 · 02:55I. Demchenko1.577760P. Plakushchyi2.251111113LSep 14 · 01:25O. Mishchenko2.001111133P. Plakushchyi1.7389110WSep 10 · 03:55O. Kovalchuk2.508680P. Plakushchyi1.501111113
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