TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13155402
Played Sep 19Finished
Volodymyr Tatarnykov
Home
2.20
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 1
Set by set
11741111999––
Serhii Aristarkhov
Away
1.62
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:49 and never touched — 58.1% is still 58.1%
Graded at full timeSerhii Aristarkhov to win
58.1%
58.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingVolodymyr Tatarnykov above · Serhii Aristarkhov below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 9-9
Point 71 set 4, 9-9 — our read held Serhii Aristarkhov at 58.1%
71 points played in total.
H2H Volodymyr Tatarnykov 49–80 Serhii Aristarkhov Volodymyr Tatarnykov has won 49 of their 129 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:49What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Aristarkhov
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
49-80 in 129
Aristarkhov
Wrong
gap of 31 in 129, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tatarnykov 1565 vs Aristarkhov 1619
Aristarkhov
Wrong
both rated, 54 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tatarnykov 20% vs Aristarkhov 60%
Aristarkhov
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tatarnykov 40% vs Aristarkhov 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Tatarnykov -2 · Aristarkhov +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Aristarkhov) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tatarnykov form (20%) is below what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTatarnykov 2.20 / Aristarkhov 1.61
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Aristarkhov)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13155402
Tatarnykov2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog31% won 22 of 72
Down 0–1, comes back13% 6 of 46
Down 0–2, comes back7% 2 of 30
Aristarkhov1.61
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite64% won 100 of 156
Up 2–0, closes it96% 49 of 51
Up 1–0, closes it84% 73 of 87
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTatarnykov2wins
AwayAristarkhov8wins
3 of 10 to a deciderAristarkhov leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTatarnykov50%2 of 4
AwayAristarkhov100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tatarnykov4Aristarkhov6n = 10Aristarkhov took 6 of 10
S2Tatarnykov5Aristarkhov5n = 10split evenly
S3Tatarnykov2Aristarkhov7n = 9Aristarkhov took 7 of 9
S4Tatarnykov3Aristarkhov2n = 5Tatarnykov took 3 of 5
S5Tatarnykov0Aristarkhov3n = 3Aristarkhov took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricTatarnykovAristarkhovT − ABasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match37.538.9−1.4per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTatarnykovAristarkhovBasisWin rate · lifetime209 / 397 vs 322 / 58852.6%54.8%209 / 397 vs 322 / 588Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.936.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
AristarkhovTatarnykov 2.20/Aristarkhov 1.61
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.9%
Aristarkhov · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–1
Tatarnykov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LSep 6 · 07:30V. Tatarnykov381111881S. Aristarkhov3813311113
WAug 23 · 07:30V. Tatarnykov4211119113S. Aristarkhov34951191
WAug 22 · 14:00V. Tatarnykov341211113S. Aristarkhov2410860
LJul 26 · 09:30V. Tatarnykov45121161152S. Aristarkhov45145114113
LJul 25 · 17:29V. Tatarnykov4411811862S. Aristarkhov51911911113
LJul 12 · 09:30V. Tatarnykov4611761482S. Aristarkhov494111112113
LJun 28 · 09:00V. Tatarnykov2511590S. Aristarkhov351311113
LJun 27 · 16:30V. Tatarnykov2696110S. Aristarkhov351111133
V. Tatarnykov10
WSep 19 · 17:35D. Prylepa2.385850V. Tatarnykov1.531111113LSep 19 · 15:30V. Tatarnykov1.53111031162A. Vasylets2.38812117113LSep 19 · 14:00V. Tatarnykov1.504118101D. Prylepa2.5011911102LSep 19 · 13:00V. Tatarnykov2.00871171M. Hubenko1.7311118113WSep 6 · 10:30V. Tatarnykov2.00812114133M. Hubenko1.731110911112LSep 6 · 09:00V. Tatarnykov1.5011116762D. Prylepa2.50791111113LSep 6 · 07:30V. Tatarnykov2.251111881S. Aristarkhov1.5713311113WSep 6 · 06:00V. Tatarnykov1.5311118113O. Syksa2.38881151LSep 6 · 04:30V. Tatarnykov1.14681111O. Lyman5.0011114113WSep 5 · 17:39D. Kuzmenko3.401399101V. Tatarnykov1.30111111123
S. Aristarkhov10
WSep 19 · 15:00S. Aristarkhov1.4011911123D. Prylepa2.757116101LSep 19 · 13:30S. Aristarkhov1.5044111162A. Vasylets2.50111157113LSep 19 · 12:00S. Aristarkhov1.83114871M. Hubenko1.839111193WSep 13 · 17:04S. Aristarkhov1.8311911113M. Hubenko1.83411971WSep 13 · 16:00M. Hubenko1.8381181172S. Aristarkhov1.83116115113LSep 13 · 14:30O. Syksa2.0011112113S. Aristarkhov1.73981191WSep 13 · 13:00A. Vasylets2.50771181S. Aristarkhov1.5011115103LSep 13 · 12:00D. Prylepa2.631111123S. Aristarkhov1.4477100LSep 6 · 11:30S. Aristarkhov1.6111971142O. Syksa2.2031111373WSep 6 · 07:30V. Tatarnykov2.251111881S. Aristarkhov1.5713311113
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.