TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13155536
Played Sep 19Finished
Serhii Aristarkhov
Home
1.40
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1179111161210––
Dmytro Prylepa
Away
2.75
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:10 and never touched — 66.9% is still 66.9%
Graded at full timeSerhii Aristarkhov to win
66.9%
66.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSerhii Aristarkhov above · Dmytro Prylepa below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 12-10
Point 77 set 4, 12-10 — our read held Serhii Aristarkhov at 66.9%
77 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Aristarkhov 48–19 Dmytro Prylepa Dmytro Prylepa has won 19 of their 67 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:10What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Aristarkhov
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
48-19 in 67
Aristarkhov
Correct
gap of 29 in 67, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Aristarkhov 1612 vs Prylepa 1480
Aristarkhov
Correct
both rated, 132 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Aristarkhov 40% vs Prylepa 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Aristarkhov 40% vs Prylepa 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Aristarkhov -2 · Prylepa +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 71% — Strong (leans Aristarkhov) · live re-read · sealed at 67% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Aristarkhov form (40%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsAristarkhov 1.40 / Prylepa 2.75
Signal prob.71% / 29%
Edge (Aristarkhov)+4.4pp
Setka Cup · #13155536
Aristarkhov1.40
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite64% won 100 of 156
Up 2–0, closes it96% 49 of 51
Up 1–0, closes it84% 73 of 87
Prylepa2.75
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog30% won 49 of 161
Down 0–1, comes back10% 10 of 98
Down 0–2, comes back6% 4 of 72
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeAristarkhov6wins
AwayPrylepa4wins
1 of 10 to a deciderAristarkhov leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeAristarkhov100%5 of 5
AwayPrylepa80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Aristarkhov5Prylepa5n = 10split evenly
S2Aristarkhov3Prylepa7n = 10Prylepa took 7 of 10
S3Aristarkhov6Prylepa4n = 10Aristarkhov took 6 of 10
S4Aristarkhov4Prylepa2n = 6Aristarkhov took 4 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricAristarkhovPrylepaA − PBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match34.132.6+1.5per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricAristarkhovPrylepaBasisWin rate · lifetime321 / 587 vs 393 / 79954.7%49.2%321 / 587 vs 393 / 799Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.437.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
AristarkhovAristarkhov 1.40/Prylepa 2.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
70.7%
Aristarkhov · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Aristarkhov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 13 · 12:00S. Aristarkhov2477100D. Prylepa341111123
WSep 6 · 05:30S. Aristarkhov48118117113D. Prylepa3631141172
WAug 30 · 15:30S. Aristarkhov3911116113D. Prylepa31661181
WAug 23 · 05:30S. Aristarkhov3811511113D. Prylepa36811981
LAug 16 · 12:00S. Aristarkhov227870D. Prylepa331111113
LAug 3 · 04:30S. Aristarkhov30671161D. Prylepa4211119113
WJul 25 · 13:30S. Aristarkhov3741111113D. Prylepa25117611
WJun 13 · 12:30S. Aristarkhov391711113D. Prylepa2815940
WMay 30 · 14:00S. Aristarkhov4111811113D. Prylepa27511921
LMay 16 · 15:30S. Aristarkhov2341090D. Prylepa341112113
S. Aristarkhov10
LSep 19 · 13:30S. Aristarkhov1.5044111162A. Vasylets2.50111157113LSep 19 · 12:00S. Aristarkhov1.83114871M. Hubenko1.839111193WSep 13 · 17:04S. Aristarkhov1.8311911113M. Hubenko1.83411971WSep 13 · 16:00M. Hubenko1.8381181172S. Aristarkhov1.83116115113LSep 13 · 14:30O. Syksa2.0011112113S. Aristarkhov1.73981191WSep 13 · 13:00A. Vasylets2.50771181S. Aristarkhov1.5011115103LSep 13 · 12:00D. Prylepa2.631111123S. Aristarkhov1.4477100LSep 6 · 11:30S. Aristarkhov1.6111971142O. Syksa2.2031111373LSep 6 · 09:30M. Hubenko1.831113113S. Aristarkhov1.8361160WSep 6 · 07:30V. Tatarnykov2.251111881S. Aristarkhov1.5713311113
D. Prylepa10
WSep 19 · 14:00V. Tatarnykov1.504118101D. Prylepa2.5011911102WSep 19 · 12:30A. Vasylets1.671071131D. Prylepa2.1012112113LSep 14 · 10:30M. Hubenko1.441111113D. Prylepa2.633990LSep 14 · 09:30D. Prylepa1.67461191O. Kurylenko2.1011117113LSep 14 · 08:30D. Prylepa2.636980O. Syksa1.441111113WSep 14 · 07:00D. Prylepa1.531115911113D. Kuzmenko2.38131311732WSep 14 · 05:00D. Prylepa1.7311116113S. Maliuk2.00961171LSep 13 · 16:30A. Vasylets1.7312117113D. Prylepa2.001021141LSep 13 · 15:00D. Prylepa2.50341161M. Hubenko1.501111862WSep 13 · 12:00D. Prylepa2.631111123S. Aristarkhov1.4477100
Upcoming Matches
S. Aristarkhov
D. Prylepa
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