TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13155169
Played Sep 19Finished
Petr Kolesnik
Home
1.36
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 0
Set by set
11711511––––
Ihor Dubinin
Away
3.00
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:11 and never touched — 73.2% is still 73.2%
Graded at full timePetr Kolesnik to win
73.2%
73.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPetr Kolesnik above · Ihor Dubinin below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 1-1
Point 36 set 3, 1-1 — our read held Petr Kolesnik at 73.2%
36 points played in total.
H2H Petr Kolesnik 19–6 Ihor Dubinin Ihor Dubinin has won 6 of their 25 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:11What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Kolesnik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
19-6 in 25
Kolesnik
Correct
gap of 13 in 25, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kolesnik 1520 vs Dubinin 1360
Kolesnik
Correct
both rated, 160 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kolesnik 60% vs Dubinin 20%
Kolesnik
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kolesnik 30% vs Dubinin 20%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kolesnik -2 · Dubinin -4
Dubinin
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 73% — Strong (leans Kolesnik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dubinin form (20%) is below what odds imply (33%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKolesnik 1.36 / Dubinin 3.00
Signal prob.73% / 27%
Edge (Kolesnik)+4.4pp
Setka Cup · #13155169
Kolesnik1.36
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite64% won 74 of 115
Up 2–0, closes it96% 46 of 48
Up 1–0, closes it84% 58 of 69
Dubinin3.00
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog34% won 36 of 105
Down 0–1, comes back20% 12 of 61
Down 0–2, comes back6% 2 of 34
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKolesnik8wins
AwayDubinin2wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKolesnik leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKolesnik83.3%5 of 6
AwayDubinin25%1 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kolesnik6Dubinin4n = 10Kolesnik took 6 of 10
S2Kolesnik6Dubinin4n = 10Kolesnik took 6 of 10
S3Kolesnik7Dubinin3n = 10Kolesnik took 7 of 10
S4Kolesnik5Dubinin2n = 7Kolesnik took 5 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKolesnikDubininK − DBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match40.632.4+8.2per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKolesnikDubininBasisWin rate · lifetime181 / 324 vs 221 / 44355.9%49.9%181 / 324 vs 221 / 443Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.737.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KolesnikKolesnik 1.36/Dubinin 3.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
73.2%
Kolesnik · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–0
Kolesnik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 1 · 15:00P. Kolesnik401112891I. Dubinin4591411113
WAug 13 · 13:00P. Kolesnik331111113I. Dubinin135350
LJul 22 · 16:58P. Kolesnik43101111111I. Dubinin4212134133
WJul 22 · 15:00P. Kolesnik46614411113I. Dubinin42111211172
WJul 10 · 16:30P. Kolesnik4313811113I. Dubinin381111881
WJul 3 · 16:30P. Kolesnik51881111133I. Dubinin48111196112
WJun 20 · 15:00P. Kolesnik331111113I. Dubinin145180
WApr 16 · 13:00P. Kolesnik3961111113I. Dubinin27113941
WApr 10 · 16:00P. Kolesnik4213117113I. Dubinin311181111
WMar 30 · 15:00P. Kolesnik361114113I. Dubinin2451270
P. Kolesnik10
LSep 19 · 13:00P. Kolesnik2.6391111962O. Torianyk1.44118711113LSep 13 · 10:39P. Kolesnik1.831181051O. Tiutiunnyk1.8371112113WSep 13 · 09:00O. Torianyk1.40117881P. Kolesnik2.7571111113WSep 13 · 07:30S. Bului1.4041111882P. Kolesnik2.75117711113WSep 13 · 06:00M. Levytskii1.50116641P. Kolesnik2.5061111113LSep 13 · 05:00O. Tiutiunnyk2.201111133P. Kolesnik1.6189110LSep 12 · 17:40P. Kolesnik3.251091361O. Torianyk1.33121111113LSep 12 · 16:00P. Kolesnik2.7591111151M. Levytskii1.4011613173LSep 12 · 15:00O. Torianyk1.4041111113P. Kolesnik2.75116661LSep 12 · 12:30S. Bului1.4411118793P. Kolesnik2.6339111112
I. Dubinin10
WSep 19 · 15:00D. Tsys1.2881111762I. Dubinin3.5011751193LSep 19 · 12:30M. Levytskii1.22101111193I. Dubinin4.001268171LSep 17 · 17:13R. Hryhoriev1.73111111113I. Dubinin2.00881331LSep 17 · 16:30M. Pohorilyi1.40117411123I. Dubinin2.75411118102LSep 17 · 15:00I. Dubinin1.7351151192R. Hryhoriev2.00118116113WSep 17 · 13:30I. Dubinin2.101111113N. Priadko1.676590LSep 17 · 12:00I. Dubinin1.736131191P. Shulhachyk2.0011159113LSep 10 · 17:10R. Hryhoriev1.85971116113I. Dubinin1.85111171492WSep 10 · 16:30M. Pohorilyi1.366811111I. Dubinin3.0011118133LSep 10 · 15:00I. Dubinin1.33311661Y. Zvolynskyi3.2511911113
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